Muhammadu Buhari is an also-ran. Bad strategy combined with wrong public perception ruined his quest for Aso Rock in 2003, 2007, and 2011.
Yet, his loyalists cite his antecedent as military Head of State between December 1983 and August 1985 to argue he is the best man to clean up a country with corruption intricately woven into its psyche.
Buhari, 72, says this is his last shot. And he wants to serve only one term. To get the job after his heart, Victor Ebimomi and Ishaya Ibrahim, explain why his best chance is with Chris Ngige or Ogbonnaya Onu as running mate.
President Goodluck Jonathan will clearly be walking a tight rope in the 2015 vote if the All Progressives Congress (APC) makes the right calculation for Aso Rock.
The battle is squarely between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the APC, an amalgam of sundry parties into a mega one last year with the sole aim to dislodge the PDP behemoth.
PDP’s winning streak
The PDP has been in the saddle since 1999 when this democratic dispensation began. That year, its candidate, Olusegun Obasanjo, a retired General and former military Head of State, defeated All People’s Party (APP) candidate, Olu Falae.
In 2003, Obasanjo in his second term, trounced the APP flag bearer, Muhammadu Buhari, also a retired General and former Head of State.
In 2007, the PDP candidate, Umaru Yar’Adua, also defeated Buhari, who contested on the platform of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), the new name adopted by the APP to accommodate more interests.
The feat was repeated in 2011 when the PDP candidate, Goodluck Jonathan, coasted home ahead of Buhari who contested under his newly-formed Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).
The unbroken chain of PDP victory emboldened it so much that its then National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor, boasted that the party would rule Nigeria for 60 years.
Formation of APC
The APC was formed through the merger of three parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
The basic idea behind the merger, according to the principal actors, is to be formidable to give the PDP a run for its money. It is a herculean task, as incumbency is a strong factor in Nigerian politics. But it is not impossible if the APC puts its house in order.
Buhari back in it
Buhari won the APC presidential ticket on Wednesday, December 10 to run for the Villa once again, his last throw of the dice after three failed attempts.
Those who contested against him were former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; publisher of Leadership newspaper, Sam Ndah-Isaiah; Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha.
House of Representatives Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, withdrew from the race “in the interest of the party”.
Though all the contestants were qualified, for the APC to make maximum impact, party members agreed with analysts and picked Buhari as the best bet. This argument is premised on three planks.
One. The North is clamouring for power shift and the APC took the ticket up North. And among the Northerners in the presidential race, Buhari is the most popular and the most likely to carry the Northern vote.
He has a huge following, reflected in the last election in which he polled more than 12 million votes, even though his CPC was barely one year old at the time.
Two. Buhari is perceived as an upright person who can confront headlong the cancer of corruption that has eaten deep into all the nooks and crannies of Nigeria.
During his 18 month as Head of State, he herded all politicians of the Second Republic to prison on the slightest suspicion that they were corrupt.
His transparency is also exemplified when a youth group, Buhari Support Organisation (BSO), started an initiative to pool campaign funds from among his supporters.
Their aim is to raise N7 billion from an estimated 70 million party supporters and Buhari’s admirers who would contribute N100 each.
Buhari agreed to it on the condition that, to ensure transparency, he would be the sole signatory of the First Bank account number 2026724405 in the name of BSO in which the funds would be kept.
“What makes it worthy of praise is the fact that the initiative comes with its in-built mechanism for ensuring acceptability that is also transparency-friendly. If we preach accountability, we should be able to practise it,” Buhari said.
A new game for Jonathan
The factors that ensured Jonathan’s victory in 2011 may not persuade voters in 2015 – his tale of attending elementary school barefooted; being a minority of the minorities in the South South; the support of the Northern establishment (politicians and traditional rulers).
The issues the electorate will assess him on in 2015 include
• His handling of Boko Haram, especially the missing Chibok girls.
• Unstable power supply.
• Unemployment.
• The $20 billion oil money that former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Lamido Sanusi, alleged got missing.
• His refusal to fire or probe Petroleum Minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke, for allegedly spending N10 billion on private jet hire.
• The mysterious manner a jet owned by Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) President, Ayo Oritsejafor, got involved in air freighting $9.3 million to buy arms in South Africa.
• Other corruption scandals.
Tall order versus advantages
The stigma that Buhari is a Muslim zealot may not stick in 2015 following recent disclosures that his first daughter had been married to a Christian Igbo before he ventured into politics, and that his domestic staff of many decades are mostly Christians.
Buhari has two advantages.
He has a strong base in the North, which wants power shift that it will not get in 2015 from the PDP, with Jonathan as its sole candidate.
The South West is largely APC terrain. That favours Buhari.
But much of the South South, Jonathan’s domain, will go for the president. The South East, the battleground in 2015, is toss up, even though most political leaders in the zone are not happy with the APC.
The Northern vote will be largely tilted in favour of Buhari while Tinubu can use his influence to garner the vote in the South West, where the APC controls four of the six states (Lagos, Osun, Ogun, and Oyo).
Even in Ekiti and Ondo, which are controlled by the PDP in the South West, Buhari can get more than 25 per cent of the vote, as required by law.
The APC can also make a good showing in the South South, with the efforts of Governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Adams Oshiomhole (Edo), and others.
In the South East, too, the likes of Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, former Anambra State Governor now Senator Chris Ngige, and former Abia State Governor, Ogbonnaya Onu, can make the impact for the party.
South East, APC’s master stroke
But a major factor that can swing victory for Buhari is his choice of vice presidential candidate, the zone, and religion.
As is Nigeria’s history since independence, a Muslim-Muslim ticket is frowned at just as a Christian-Christian ticket.
The only time the same religion ticket was tolerated in a presidential election was in 1993 when Moshood Abiola paired Baba Gana Kingibe. Abiola won the ballot although former military President Ibrahim Babangida, annulled it.
Many observers say the choice of Buhari’s vice presidential candidate should naturally be from the South East. This will solve two fundamental problems for the APC.
It will demystify the anti-Igbo sentiment associated with the party. And it will impact heavily on the campaign of Jonathan as the region is his second stronghold, after the South South.
Ngige or Onu as Buhari’s best pick
APC heavyweights from the South East include Okorocha, Ngige, and Onu.
Ngige has charisma that cuts across the zone, as well as political experience, and is endowed with a fighting spirit.
His popularity is such that after former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, defected from APGA to the PDP, some members of APGA mounted pressure on Ngige to defect to APGA and be its rallying point.
Ngige was equally under pressure to join the PDP. But he stood his ground not to leave the APC, which he described as “a mass movement for the emancipation of Nigerians.”
APGA members want someone of Ngige’s calibre to galvanise the party and reconcile all warring factions before the vote.
A source in the party said: “With Peter Obi out of APGA, some party members are not comfortable with the absence of a strong arrowhead that is on the ground and has the capacity and experience to boost the morale of party members.
“Obi’s dumping of APGA will adversely affect the party, and the only politician in Anambra – and if possible Igboland – that can make the difference and also douse the tension occasioned by Peter Obi’s departure from APGA is Ngige.
“Some people have already commenced moves to get him join the party due to the true Igbo man’s spirit in him.”
Anambra State APC Chairman, Emeka Ibe, confirmed the move to lure Ngige to APGA.
His words: “I know that so many people have been trying to bring him into the PDP, and not only the PDP but APGA also. Last year, there was pressure for him to join these two political parties.
“The pressure is even more now from APGA. They know that he is a beautiful bride and every political party wants him.
“They have been coming; especially the APGA people, and they are still coming. But the problem is that the ideologies of the APC and APGA are not the same and Ngige will not join APGA despite the pressure, he has made it clear that he cannot be jumping from one party to another.
“Ngige believes wholeheartedly in the APC and will not bow to their pressure. Some of the members of APGA have been coming and they are lamenting that they do not have any fatherly leader in APGA and that is why they want Ngige.
“But I must tell you that they have lost their deposits.”
Ngige may want to run for a second term as senator, but the prospect of becoming vice president, then president after Buhari, would be a huge draw.
Ibe said: “Ngige is a serving senator and nothing stops him from going back to the Senate. And even as a senator nothing stops him from being chosen as a running mate to the presidential candidate.
“All these things are good aspirations and in due time he will make public his ambition. All we know is that these two positions are okay for him.”
In the alternative, Buhari can pick Onu, who governed old Abia between February 1992 and December 1993.
Onu, as Chairman of the then ANPP, led the talks between it and the other parties that formed the APC last year.
If Buhari chooses Ngige or Onu as deputy, that will split the South East vote for the PDP, which controls three of the five states in the region (Abia, Enugu, and Ebonyi).
Imo is APC domain, and Anambra is in APGA’s column.
Better prospects of Igbo presidency
Buhari’s promise to serve one term, which ends in 2019 if he wins the election, presents an opportunity for the South East to produce the president in 2019, the highest post in the land, which the zone has clamoured for since the end of the civil war.
The South East producing the president will finally assuage the ill feelings caused by the Biafran war of 1967 to 1970.
If Buhari picks Ngige or Onu and pitches on stepping down for him in 2019 if the ticket wins the Villa in 2015, the prospect of the South East getting the presidency through the APC in five years’ time is something the region will find hard to resist.
In this scenario, the collective lot of the South East is better in the APC in the foreseeable future than in the PDP.
If Jonathan wins the ballot with Vice President, Namadi Sambo, the PDP will rotate power to the North in 2019.
And if the party wins Aso Rock in 2019, the tenure may stretch to two terms of eight years.
That means power may remain in the North till 2027.
Some South East leaders have argued that the region has benefitted a lot under Jonathan in appointments and infrastructure, but others disagree with that notion.
One of the proponents of the view, Abia State Governor, Theodore Orji, said: “In terms of appointments, we are better than what it used to be. In terms of projects, we have benefitted from some landmark projects.
“It is under [Jonathan] that we realised the Akanu Ibiam Airport as an international airport. It had been a local airport all along.”
He also cited the Onitsha-Owerri road and the second Niger bridge as “some of the visible things we can be happy about. Jonathan has kept his promises for us and I know he will do more for us by the time we give him another massive support.”
However, it is better for the South East to produce the president than for it to be given political appointments and provided infrastructure by a president from another zone.
Orji expressed hope that the South East will produce the president at the right time.
“We know we will be president, there is no doubt that a president of Igbo extraction will emerge one day but it is good for us to go when the time is right,” he said.
But even if the PDP, currently the largest party, factors the South East into its calculation post-Jonathan, that means the earliest someone from the region may become president on the platform of the PDP is 2027.
Why would the South East wait till 2027 to produce the president through the PDP when it can do so in 2019 through the APC? This will weigh heavily on the minds of South East voters in February 2015.
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