By Kehinde Okeowo
The exit of the military from the political arena and the democratic dispensation that followed in 1999 ushered zoning formula into the Nigerian political space. Despite the fact that this culture is not known to our constitution, it has become popular and resonates with most people. While critics of this unwritten principle have argued that it promotes mediocrity and nepotism, its advocates are of the opinion that it fosters sense of belonging and fairness among different ethnic nationalities that make up the country.
Therefore, as political activities gather momentum in Ondo State ahead of the October 10, 2020 governorship election, it is important to look at the role zoning might play in the election. The state fondly referred to as Sunshine state is made up of 18 local government areas which can be further divided into three senatorial districts, the north, central and south with each district comprising of six local governments. The North of the state comprises Akoko North-East, Akoko North-West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Ose and Owo local government areas. Ondo Central has Akure North , Akure South, Ondo East, Ondo West, Idanre and Ifedore Local government areas while Ondo South is made up of Ile-Oluji/ Oke-Igbo , Odigbo, Irele, Ese-odo, Ilaje and Okitipupa local government areas.
Each zone has produced at least a governor since 1999. Late Chief Adebayo Adefarati , who hailed from Akoko South-West LGA, (Ondo North) governed the state between 1999-2003, his successor late Dr Olusegun Agagu who hailed from Okitipupa LGA (Ondo South) was the governor between 2003-2009, while Dr Olusegun Mimiko, from Ondo West LGA (Ondo Central) was in charge between 2009-2017. The incumbent, Governor Rotimi Akekrdolu (SAN), is from Owo local government (Ondo North).
The build up and the outcome of the 2016 gubernatorial election in Ondo State is a pointer to the fact that the people of the state take the issue of zoning seriously. Most political watchers will remember that the then incumbent, Dr Olusegun Mimiko, who is from Ondo Central having spent eight straight years anointed Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), who incidentally, is from the same senatorial district with him. A combination of this wrong political calculation and disregard for zoning were believed to have resulted to the resounding defeat of Mr. Jegede by Governor Akeredolu who is from Ondo North; the zone most people of the state felt should produce the governor of the state at that time.
A lot of political pundits also argued before the 2016 election that Dr. Mimiko’s calculation was predicated on two factors, one is that Ondo Central has the highest population in the state and therefore could bully the other zones and that since the North and South presented Governor Rotimi Akeredolu and Chief Olusola Oke (SAN) respectively as their candidates, the two zones will be unable to work together and votes from the zones will be shared among the two contenders. This political strategy however failed as the three zones voted for the candidate from North. In fact, Mr Eyitatyo, the candidate from Ondo Central was roundly beaten in his local government.
The level of resistance displayed by the people to an attempt by Dr Mimiko to disregard the zoning pattern in the state during the 2016 election sounded a note of warning to lots of politicians and confirmed people’s faith in the system. Therefore, the Central, being the only zone to have had eight straight years and having failed in an attempt to disrupt the zoning pattern should respect the wish of the people and wait for their turn. As it is today, the race should be between the North whose candidate currently occupies the seat and are desirous of another four years to finish what they consider their right to complete two straight terms and people of the South who believe that Central and North have each spent eight years and therefore power should naturally shift to them.
The South seems to have a valid point and observers of political events in the state might be tempted to be sympathetic to their course since truly, Dr Mimiko, from the Central was in the saddle for two straight terms of eight years and the combination of the years spent by late Chief Adefarati and Governor Akeredolu, both from the North amounted to eight years, while the South has had only four years. But the equation is not that simple as they argue, because of the erratic nature of politicians. An average politician in this clime would want a two-term mandate, so other zones are unlikely to trust them even with a written commitment to serve just four years. So, they run the risk of other zones returning the favour by asking them to vacate the position after just a term. It is therefore more pragmatic and logical to wait for another four years, when the current zone must have finished two terms, so that their candidate can have a straight two-term mandate.
Finally, since the North is currently in power and has spent only one term out of the two terms it is expected to stay, the zone would be considered as the favourite in the zoning equation in the 2020 gubernatorial election. But the way they have gone about it so far does not show they see the advantage. Currently, the zone has the highest number of aspirants from the two major political parties in the state, a clear indication of lack of unity among the people of the zone. Again, the North has just 4 four years left, therefore other zones are likely to be adverse to the choice of any other candidate than the incumbent, who by law is the only candidate that is barred from spending more than four years even if he wanted to. Therefore, if citizens of the state are unwilling to upset the current zoning arrangement, it might play into Akeredolu’s hands as other candidates from his zone will likely upset the applecart if elected.
