Obi gathers momentum with 1.2m; Atiku 400k, Tinubu 300k
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Peter Obi garnered 1.2 million new Twitter followers in the four months to October, attracting them from 30 May when he clinched the presidential ticket of the Labour Party (LP), with youths trooping into his column to power him to the Villa.
Obi joined Twitter in October 2018 and had 1.1 million followers in June 2022, which swelled to 2.3 million in October.
By contrast, Atiku Abubakar attracted 400,000 new Twitter followers between June and October, the second highest figure; followed by Bola Tinubu with 30,000 new followers.
Atiku, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), joined Twitter in August 2010 and had 4.2 million followers in June 2022, who rose to 4.6 million in October.
Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Party (APC), joined Twitter in February 2012. He had 1.1 million followers in June 2022. The number rose to 1.4 million in October.
Even though Atiku has the highest overall figure at 4.6 million in 12 years, he has not gained much traction with just 400,000 new followers since June 2022.
Obi has the second highest overall followers at 1.3 million in four years, but the momentum is clearly on his back with 1.2 million new followers since June 2022.
Between June and October, he gained 800,000 more Twitter followers than Atiku and 900,000 more than Tinubu.
Obi’s momentum on Twitter reflects the results of the four opinion polls since August, all of which put him ahead of the pack.
Prediction based on analysis
A survey of the voting intent of registered voters is different from an analysis of historical and current factors to predict a future outcome.
So the prediction of the 2023 election result by the Economic Intelligence Unit in September and that by Fitch Solutions (an arm of Fitch Ratings) in October, both of which are based on analysis – not on survey of voters – are not counted here.
Poll of voters
A poll conducted online between 3 October and 11 October 2022 by Arewa Trust, an online newspaper based in Kano, has 95 per cent of the respondents affirming they would vote for Obi.
That makes a total four opinion polls conducted so far by various organisations in and outside Nigeria, all of which attest the majority of “registered and decided” voters prefer Obi.
In the Arewa Trust poll, readers were asked, “Who will you be voting for as President in 2023?” and given the option to choose from among Obi, Tinubu, Atiku, and Rabiu Kwankaso (New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP).
The result breaks down as follows:
Raw numbers
- Total page views – 19,514
- Those who voted – 5,352
Result per candidate
- Peter Obi – 5,089 (95.09%)
- Bola Tinubu – 137 (2.56%)
- Atiku Abubakar – 97 (1.81%)
- Rabiu Kwankwaso – 29 (0.54%)
A previous app-based poll conducted by Bloomberg News in late September came up with 72 per cent of 3,973 “registered and decided voters” who said they would vote Obi. Tinubu got 16 per cent and Atiku 9 per cent.
Also in late September, a poll conducted by We2Geda gave Obi 51 per cent, Atiku 25 per cent, and Tinubu 19 per cent.
In August, Obi led in a survey conducted by NOI Polls with 21 per cent. Tinubu and Atiku received 13 per cent each, Kwankwaso 3 per cent.
Aggregate of polls
Aggregate scores by the three leading candidates in the four polls are as follows:
- Peter Obi – 59.75 per cent
- Bola Tinubu – 12.64 per cent
- Atiku Abubabar – 12.20 per cent
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Related articles:
Voters in online poll by Arewa Trust (based in Kano) give Obi 95%, Tinubu 2.56%, Atiku 1.81%
Reality of Online Polls and imperative of grassroots mobilisation
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Back on Twitter
Below are the top five of the 18 presidential candidates with the highest number of Twitter followers, as compiled by Nairametrics from their Twitter handles.
Atiku Abubakar (4.6 million)
Atiku Abubakar is not a newcomer to social media, having been on Twitter since August 2010 engaging his followers.
The former Vice President, who also contested in the 2019 election, currently has the largest number of Twitter followers among the candidates with 4.6 million.
His followers on Twitter stood at 4.2 million in June 2022. He gained 400,000 more by October.
Peter Obi (2.3 million)
Peter Obi is second with 2.3 million followers on Twitter. He joined Twitter in October 2018 and currently enjoys massive support across various social media platforms.
The former Anambra Governor had 1.1 million followers on Twitter in June. That more than doubled by October with 1.2 million new followers.
Bola Tinubu (1.4 million)
Bola Tinubu, former Lagos Governor, joined Twitter in February 2012 and had 1.4 million followers by October 2022.
He had 1.1 million followers in June 2022. Meaning he gained 300,000 new followers by October.
Yele Sowore (812,300)
African Action Congress (AAC) presidential candidate Yele Sowore has been on Twitter since January 2013 and had 812,300 followers by October 2022.
He had 728,800 followers in June and gained 83,500 new ones in four months.
Rabiu Kwankwaso (258, 600)
Rabiu Kwankwaso is also pushing his campaign on various social media platforms.
The former Kano Governor joined Twitter in February 2018 and had 258,600 followers by October 2022.
He had 172,200 followers in June and gained 86,400 new ones in four months.
