Nigeria has actually been streamed into international norms and conventions. Perhaps, this informs why the government, since the return to democratic governance, makes effort to conduct herself in accordance with global standards. The current electioneering brings all this to the fore, writes Correspondent, SAM NWOKORO
Advent of democratic rule in 1999, after nearly two decades of military dictatorship, has caused unprecedented attitudinal change, diplomatically. Nigeria suffered many social and diplomatic sanctions during the dark days of military rule, especially between 1984 and 1999 before her Fourth Republic.
Before 1999, Nigeria remained on the sidelines of global affairs because the civilised world had almost written her off as a state that could never be retrieved from lawless, power-hungry military juntas. Political events that preceded the return to democratic rule in 1999 were such that all hopes were lost about the viability of any democratic experiment.
The military junta led General Mohammadu Buhari that sacked the Second Republic government of Shehu Shagari did not have any idea of how long it was going to stay in power before returning the country to civilian rule. It was concerned with cleaning the Augean stable left behind by the civilian administration it sacked. The norm those days was for any intervening military government to, as soon it settles down to office, announce a new transition programme. That way, friends of the country, especially the democratised one, are able to construct a reliable template to maintain existing relationship. Nigeria suffered prolonged global isolation on account of those military dictators’ seeming inclination to hang on to power, and begin all manner of social experiments, without the requisite know-how about solving the problems they claimed were the reason for staging coups.
It takes a counter-coup to dislodge from power most military governments in Nigeria.
It is this sit-tight mentality that, most times, get Nigeria’s major allies jittery at the approach of any general election, because election period has often provided Nigeria’s ‘messianic’ army the excuse to seize power, even when it is obvious to them that Nigerians hardly welcome them whenever they strike the airwaves with their messianic mantra as people on salvage mission.
The “stepping aside” of retired General Ibrahim Babangida did not amicably resolve the political crises that attended the general election he conducted in 1993. Instead, the outcome and subsequent peregrination of his successor, Sani Abacha, created much havoc for Nigeria, and the whole world nearly crippled Nigeria with concerted and consolidated global economic and diplomatic sanctions, until providence separated Abacha from Nigeria.
Why Nigeria guns for crisis-free poll
It appears that it is in an attempt by the President Goodluck Jonathan administration not to re-launch Nigeria into the pariah status she suffered before the world, following the botched Babangida and Abacha-supervised general elections of 1993 and the queer Third Republic army/civilian government arrangement that pushed the present administration and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conclude that it is better to make more efforts to tidy up things before conducting the 2015 elections.
Last weekend, INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, announced to the world that the February 14 presidential elections would no longer hold due to security reports from military high commands that safety of electoral staff, materials and, most importantly, local and international observers for the polls cannot be guaranteed in the states troubled by Boko Haram insurgents.
He told the press: “For matters under the control of INEC, we are ready and prepared for the election. But it does not take the Commission’s readiness alone to conduct the election. We have to take into consideration the advice of the security agencies which have officially told us that they cannot guarantee the security of people and materials if the election is held now. They insisted that the military is currently more occupied with fighting insurgency and may not provide security during the election.
“In view of this, the Commission, after due and wide consultations, have decided to adjust the dates for the elections: the presidential and National Assembly elections would be held on March 28, 2015, while the governorship and state assembly elections will take place on April 11, 2015.”
The arrangement, he maintained, is in consonance with the provision of the Electoral Act. He explained that the conduct of election in a country like Nigeria is a collective venture. “There are so many other things that are critical to the successful conduct of election.”
Postponement, a surprise?
It did not take many people by surprise that the election would be shifted. Prominent people had since doubted the state of preparedness of INEC for the elections. But when the National Council of State (NCS), a body of former and present Nigerian leaders, met penultimate week over the security situation in the country and said polls could hold, most of them played the hypocrite as if any of them could take the blame from the international community, should any of the nearly 100 foreign observers due in the country for the poll monitoring fall into Boko Haram’s attacks.
A security expert with Diamond Security Corporate Guards says: “INEC is right to have shifted the polls. I was surprised when he (Jega) said the previous day that INEC was ready for the polls. But I know he would recant it. Are you going to set innocent people, foreign citizens for that matter, as shooting targets because you want to conduct election? There is nothing to rush about. There is no big deal postponing the poll.”
Other Concerns
Other concerns about the polls’ shift suggests that the United States prefers that the polls be not unduly delayed, so as not to build more tension around it, something that should not give the insurgents the impression that their disturbances is achieving their desires. Secretary of State, John Kerry, said: “U.S. is disappointed with the polls’ shift. Political interference with the Independent National Electoral Commission is unacceptable, and it is critical that the government should not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.”
Following the postponement, Nigerians have intensified calls for a holistic review of the nation’s statutes to pave way for peaceful co-existence between the North and South.
On the other side, some analysts are also pointing fingers at Jega, arguing that he has not sufficiently allayed doubts before some sections of Nigeria that he is unbiased. One such concern came from Akubueze Orizu, a protem secretary of Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Abia State chapter.
The barrister told TheNiche in an interview: “Jega has to demonstrate that he is in charge of every situation all the time. But as it looks now, he is not. We have been hearing about certificate forgeries and all that. Jega has the INEC rules and the electoral laws as his working manual. Why has he not come out to clear the air? Is it true that our laws allow for anybody to flaunt any document as certificate to contest the presidency? Is it true that the Buhari’s certificate is not authentic? Is it true that he never complied with the deadline for submission of all credentials before coming out to contest for election? Why has Jega kept mum over these issues till now?
“Now the case of perjury has been instituted against one of the presidential candidates by some groups. Would the matter be sorted out before the election or are Nigerians going to gloss over it? Or are we going to assume that the case would turn this way or that way, and therefore would not matter regarding the holding of the presidential election? These things ought not to have turned out this way if somebody somewhere has been upbeat in his own area, otherwise the argument regarding certificates would have been cleared by now.
“Institutions such as INEC are supposedly run on enduring templates of rules and norms because they serve as reference points. How are we sure that after we overcome this insurgency thing as it concerns the holding of election, the issue of certificate forgery or the outcome of the case would not affect the conduct of this presidential election?”
In another development, international observers, including U.S. congressmen, have expressed concern that Nigeria might actually be “on the brink”, unless something strategic is done before the election. The United States House of Representatives Sub-Committee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and international organisations recently held a hearing on Nigeria titled ‘Nigeria on the Brink’.
Also, the Southern Nigeria Ethnic Nationalities at its Town Hall meeting organised by the Oparoza House, along with the Federation of Odua People and the Lower Niger Delta Congress (LNC), agreed with the sentiments of their peoples that there is need to put the election on hold until the country is able to design a new constitution that will engender peaceful co-existence between the North and South.
The body said unfolding events in the country, leading to the current general election bear all the trademarks of the sort of confusion that welcomed the 1967 civil war, and should therefore “be clinically resolved” by putting forward a lasting solution.
Another Nigerian activist, Akinmodiro Leye, point man of the Federation of Oduduwa People, recants that the “Yoruba race is anxious for a better Nigeria and would not subscribe to half measure.
President of the South East/South South Professionals, Emeka Ugwu-Oju, who also attended a hearing on Nigeria by a U.S. House of Representative Sub Committee on January 27, 2015, remarked that the hearing, which centred on Nigeria’s security challenges and counter-insurgency operations as it concerns the now-postponed elections, was “balanced”.
Digging in
President Jonathan has said that he is not out to manipulate the electoral process. There is the general feeling among many observers of Nigeria’s political process that since the last general elections in 2011, disturbances from Boko Haram had tended to put spanner in the works of his government.
The Boko Haram insurgents have been unrelenting in their campaigns to erase Nigeria’s secular heritage. At one time, the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, disclosed that about N1 billion is spent per month on the war against insurgency, especially since the escalation of its campaigns in 2013. The counter-insurgency offensive has sometimes led to extra budgeting, unnecessarily creating refugee problems that chunks up huge funds.
The African Union (AU) has already sent a regional anti-terrorism strategy plan to the United Nations, which wants it to follow up on a planned global multilateral response to growing terrorism in Africa, including Boko Haram insurgency in North East Nigeria. Last week, five nations in the continent pledged to deploy some 8,700 troops, police and civilians as part of a regional effort to fight Boko Haram.
“The representatives of Benin, Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria and Chad have announced contributions totalling 8,700 military personnel, police and civilians,” the countries said in a statement after a meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon capital, penultimate week.
Washington has already expressed support for the regional strategy plan, promising intelligence sharing and other aids.
Necessity of observers’ security
It is not only the security of election materials and electoral staff that necessitated the shift. More than these is the security of international election observers (who are diplomatic guests) and about more than 73 local observer groups.
Already, the European Union (EU) observer group has said it might not send observers to some parts of the North, unless the security of its staff are guaranteed. Thirty of them have been in the country since November 2014, while the remaining were scheduled to arrive the country last week.
After suffering diplomatic embarrassments from South Africa who lost scores of her citizens when a building belonging to a certain ‘man of God’ in Lagos collapsed in Lagos last year, Nigeria, no doubt, would not want to entertain the world again with news that Boko Haram killed a foreigner observing election.
