Fuel importers risk losing N14b caused by a widening price gap between imported and locally refined fuel.
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Fuel importers may lose an average N466.62 million daily and N13.998 billion per month caused by the latest ex-deport price cut by Dangote Refinery last week.
Latest industry data shows that the average landing cost of a litre of imported petrol now costs N33.33 higher than the new price offered by Dangote, which is expected to tilt market dynamics in favour of the refinery against importers.
However, The PUNCH reports that the new likely loss is 81 per cent less than the average N2.5 billion daily and N75 billion monthly losses in March due to price fluctuations.
The development is linked to a decline in petrol imports by marketers and a widening price gap between imported and locally refined fuel.
Industry stakeholders said this could mark a pivotal shift in Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain, as Dangote Refinery asserts its pricing influence and reshapes competition.
Dangote Refinery last week announced its third price adjustment in six weeks, slashing ex-depot price by N30 to N835 per litre, a 3.5 per cent decrease. And it is a N45 reduction from N880 it sold per litre about two weeks ago.
“Dangote Petroleum Refinery is pleased to announce a reduction in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, 16th April 2025. This marks the second price reduction within a week,” the refinery said in a statement
“Key partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil, will offer petrol at N890 per litre, down from N920 in Lagos. In the South- West, the price will be N900 per litre, reduced from N930.
“In the North-West and North-Central, the price will be N910 per litre, lowered from N940. In the South-East, South-South, and North-East, the price will be N920 per litre, down from N950.”
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has also reduced its price from N950 per litre to N935 – implemented at retail stations in Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, and Kubwa in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.
The price is N20 higher than the N910 per litre expected at MRS filling stations.
Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) National Secretary Chinedu Ukadike commended the Dangote price reductions but lamented that marketers who have old stocks have to sell at a loss.
“It is a good development for Nigerians; however, marketers with the old price stock will have to lose billions of naira. It is affecting marketers, but based on the naira-for-crude, the effect must be reflected in the pump price,” he told The PUNCH.
Importing marketers, primarily members of the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, may lose an average N466.62m daily and N13.998 billion monthly.
According to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, the landing cost of petrol as of April 16 was N868.33 per litre or N33.33 above the N835 ex-depot price offered by Dangote Refinery.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed last week that local consumption of fuel is about 50 million litres per day.
NMDPRA Chief Executive Officer Farouk Ahmed said petrol importation declined from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres as of 13 April 2025 – driven by the reopening of Port Harcourt Refinery in November 2024 and rising output from modular refineries across the country.
But marketers attributed the drop in the volume of imported fuel to limited foreign exchange (forex) access and price instability in both domestic and international markets.
Assuming the 14 million litres of imported fuel arrive in Nigeria at N868.33 per litre, this would amount to about N12.17 billion. At the new Dangote price, the volume would cost about N11.69 billion, a difference of N466.62 million.
If dealers are compelled by current market conditions to sell at N835 per litre to marketers and retail outlets, they stand to lose an estimated N466.62 million daily or about N13.998 billion monthly.
Fuel importers said dealers may be compelled to sell below their cost prices as consumers would only buy from where petrol is cheaper.
Billy Gillis-Harry (Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria President)
“There is no calculation that I know of in the books that would bring petrol prices back to N500, N600 or N700 at the pump.
“The fluctuating prices by players and refiners are probably due to the economic environment in which they are operating. For instance, there is a lower price for crude, which is the feedstock for every refinery.
“The concern we continue to have is that it is possible in this industry to just take prices up or down arbitrarily. It is a challenge to the system. There is no computation now that can tell us this is the production cost that was used to arrive at the new price, except just an arbitrary decision.
“But it’s an open market, and some businesses would want to take undue advantage because of size and deep pockets.
“One company should not hold everyone to ransom, and this is why we call on the government, the Federal Competition and Consumers Protection Commission, and the NMDPRA to weigh the values of this price fluctuation.
“There must be a consideration for all the value chains. Otherwise, it is possible to eat yourself.”
Eche Idoko (Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria Publicity Secretary)
“Unfortunately, we are asking them [fuel importers] to come so that we can re-strategise and change their business strategy so they can remain relevant when Nigeria becomes a refining hub, but they are not forthcoming.
“Well, as long as they decide to keep to that position, at some point, they will all go out of business. Because refining in Nigeria has come to stay.”
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