Nigeria’s headline inflation drops to 15.10% in January, marking 10th straight decline
By Ishaya Ibrahim
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported a marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% in December 2025.
This marks the 10th consecutive monthly decrease and came despite earlier analyst projections that inflation could rise to around 19% in January.
The NBS Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 127.4 in January 2026, down 3.8 points from 131.2 in December 2025. The bureau attributed the 0.05 percentage point drop in the headline rate to this base effect and broader price moderation.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation fell to 15.10% in January 2026, 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025.
Month-on-month headline inflation was -2.88% in January, compared with 0.54% in December, indicating a decline in the average price level during the month.
The 12-month average CPI change (ending January 2026) was 21.97%, up 4.37 percentage points from the 17.59% recorded in January 2025.
Urban inflation stood at 15.36% year-on-year in January 2026, sharply down from 29.45% in January 2025. Month-on-month urban inflation declined by 2.72%, compared with 0.99% in December. The 12-month average for urban inflation was 22.30%.
Rural inflation was 14.44% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.04% in January 2025. Month-on-month rural inflation fell by 3.29%, compared with -0.55% in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03%.
Food inflation slows significantly
Food inflation recorded a notable slowdown, dropping to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026—20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63% in January 2025. This marked the first single-digit food inflation in a decade.
Month-on-month food inflation declined by 6.02% in January, compared with -0.36% in December. The NBS attributed the drop to lower prices for items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, and cassava.
The 12-month average food inflation rate (ending January 2026) was 20.29%, down from 38.47% in January 2025.
Core Inflation Moderates
Core inflation (excluding volatile agricultural produce and energy) stood at 17.72% year-on-year in January 2026, compared with 25.27% in January 2025.
Month-on-month core inflation declined by 1.69%, compared with 0.58% in December. The 12-month average core inflation rate was 22.84%, lower than the 27.24% in January 2025.
State-Level Variations
At the state level, Benue recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 22.48%, followed by Kogi (20.98%) and the Federal Capital Territory (19.25%). Ebonyi (8.72%), Katsina (8.94%), and Imo (10.61%) had the lowest rates.
For month-on-month changes, Imo and Ondo saw the highest increases at 1.93% and 1.932%, respectively, while Cross River (-6.34%), Ogun (-6.30%), and Kogi (-6.03%) recorded the sharpest declines.
In food inflation, Kogi had the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84%, followed by Benue (18.38%) and Adamawa (17.29%). Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo saw the slowest rises.
