Some countries’ presidential elections go as a non-issue. But not Nigeria. From the United States of America to the least nation in Africa, choosing the leader of Africa’s most populous country causes stir, writes SAM NWOKORO.
obaPerhaps, the world and major global security decision-makers don’t see some countries’ presidential elections as any agenda worth ruminating about. Either such country’s economic fundamentals are of no consequence to global calculus, or the ideology that drives such national government is not worth worrying about. Which is why both friends and foes of a country like Iraq, Iran or Colombia would bother about the presidential election in such country, because of the likely turn of events in the course of effecting transition from one government to another.
In the case of Nigeria, which cannot be classed alongside Iran, Iraq or Colombia where terrorism and drug-running play significant part in determining election outcomes, it is not surprising that the world is interested in the conduct of her elections, especially the presidential election.
United States of America (U.S.), which has been Nigeria’s foremost bilateral friend almost soon after she got political independence from Britain, no doubt, has always shown interest in Nigeria’s political processes, in fact making much impact than her colonial master, Britain. That, most possibly, explains why last Monday, President Barack Obama of U.S. specifically made a nationwide broadcast calling for a peaceful poll in Nigeria. Implicitly, the message could be interpreted as a message to the whole world, reflecting the views of Washington regarding Nigeria’s election, since it is known that U.S. has since been regarded as the world’s most stable democracy, and security-wise the world’s surviving super-power and global policeman.
The plea
In his address, Obama stressed the imperative of a peaceful poll to the progress, peace and economic prosperity of Nigeria. He noted that the election must be free and fair, and that every eligible voter should be free to exercise his/her franchise without fear or intimidation, and that their votes must count.
Obama did not fail to note that Nigeria has passed through trying times in the hands of Boko Haram insurgents.
The speech
Hello. Today, I want to speak directly to you – the people of Nigeria. Nigeria is a great nation and you can be proud of the progress you’ve made. Together, you won your independence, emerged from military rule, and strengthened democratic institutions. You’ve strived to overcome division and to turn Nigeria’s diversity into a source of strength. You’ve worked hard to improve the lives of your families and to build the largest economy in Africa.
Now you have a historic opportunity to help write the next chapter of Nigeria’s progress – by voting in the upcoming elections. For elections to be credible, they must be free, fair and peaceful.
All Nigerians must be able to cast their votes without intimidation or fear. So I call on all leaders and candidates to make it clear to their supporters that violence has no place in democratic elections – and that they will not incite, support or engage in any kind of violence – before, during, or after the votes are counted. I call on all Nigerians to peacefully express your views and to reject the voices of those who call for violence.
And when elections are free and fair, it is the responsibility of all citizens to help keep the peace, no matter who wins. Successful elections and democratic progress will help Nigeria meet the urgent challenges you face today. Boko Haram – a brutal terrorist group that kills innocent men, women and children – must be stopped. Hundreds of kidnapped children deserve to be returned to their families. Nigerians who have been forced to flee deserve to return to their homes.
Boko Haram wants to destroy Nigeria and all that you have worked to build. By casting your ballot, you can help secure your nation’s progress. I’m told that there is a saying in your country: “to keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done.” Today, I urge all Nigerians – from all religions, all ethnic groups, and all regions – to come together and keep Nigeria one. And in this task of advancing the security, prosperity, and human rights of all Nigerians, you will continue to have a friend and partner in the United States of America.
Obama’s speech was a confirmation of an earlier special phone conversation between U.S. Vice President, Joe Biden, and Nigeria’s two leading presidential candidates – Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) – which took place penultimate Wednesday.
A statement released from U.S. embassy in Nigeria after the phone conversation stated: “The vice president further expressed the United States support for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and its work to deliver credible election, in part, through its effort to distribute Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) and help insure that electronic smart card-readers are in place and fully operational.”
According to the statement, Biden also registered his concern about the violence that ensued during some recent electioneering and reiterated the need for both candidates to make clear that such violence has no place in democratic elections.
“Vice President Biden affirmed that the United States stands with the Nigerian people whatever the outcome,” the statement added.
Also emphasising Washington’s regard for the 2015 election, U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria, James Entwistle, told a Nigerian newspaper recently the need for transparent elections. He said: “U.S. is ever willing and ready to support the Nigerian government,” stressing that no other country has done more than U.S. is doing so for Nigeria.
Entwistle has been preaching the essence of peaceful and transparent polls.
He said: “I meet with a lot of Nigerian politicians. I meet all of Nigerian politicians, and whenever I talk to them, I always emphasise the importance of non-violent elections. And I ask them if they would publicly take a non-violent pledge in front of the camera, making clear they would not condone any fomented or organised thuggery or form of violence.
“Also in terms of the U.S. approach in trying to help INEC a bit, we are doing great with civil society, especially to help organise and support Nigerian election observers which I think is much more important than international observers.
“As President Obama’s representative to this country, no one is doing more than U.S. to support Nigeria. We cannot always talk about the details in public, but I know the co-operation continues.”
On fighting terrorism and pushing back the insurgents who threatened the polls, the U.S. envoy said: “Transfer of equipment is under consideration. Information sharing continues. We continue to train your officers and so on. So we are bringing people (military personnel) who have had experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and sharing that experience around the world.”
Washington and Nigeria’s past polls
Washington has played prominent roles in the past concerning Nigeria’s democratic process. She had played prominent interventionist roles by pressuring the military junta led by Abdusalami Abubakar to hand over power to civilian government in 1999.
Through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Washington has been helping Nigeria’s electoral process. The first batch of parliamentarians elected in 1999 were trained in the U.S. on how to debate bill and make laws. The Washington establishment’s many think-tanks such as the National Democratic Institute (NDI) has been in active collaboration with Nigerian civil societies and politicians in discussing diverse issues of national development, especially democracy and good governance.
Washington also has many bilateral agreements with Nigerian government on a wide range of issues. She helped pressure the government of Sani Abacha to relinquish power, though the later prevaricated before his demise in 1998. She takes regular interest in Nigeria’s general elections and sends active monitors and observer groups. She was the first country to endorse the 2011 presidential elections conduct, declaring it free and fair enough.
Why Washington’s interest matter
Nigeria has strategic trade and business relations with Washington. In Africa, Nigeria was among the countries that keyed into Washington’s admonitions for African countries to open their economies to the private sector. Washington equally recommended the Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) model of development. She has at various times supported Nigeria’s quest to occupy top positions in the international organisations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and United Nations Security Council.
Most Nigerian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) benefitted from the U.S.-promoted Africa Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA), which is still on course. The U.S. also bought most of the Eurobonds which the federal government floated in the international markets in 2013.
Though some U.S. energy firms are divesting from the Niger Delta due to discoveries elsewhere, the country still maintains top energy-related businesses with the Nigerian government and private sector in the electricity as well as oil and gas sector. It is actually difficult to give precise evaluation in monetary value of Washington’s stakes in Nigeria, for they cross diverse sectors both at public (inter-governmental) and private domains.
U.S. military still maintains robust relationship with the Nigerian defence. Entwistle says the co-operation has not paused. America is contributing to Nigeria’s fight against Islamic fundamentalists in some parts of Northern Nigeria through the sharing of intelligence with Nigeria army fighting the insurgents.
Entwistle says: “Transfer of equipment is under consideration. Information-sharing continues. We continue to train your officers and so on. So we are bringing in people who have had experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and sharing that experience around the world.”
A failed election in Nigeria would mean a distortion in Nigeria-Washington relations and the risk of multi-billion naira investments by Washington, the reason Washington is desirous of peaceful polls.
Why Nigeria matters
Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, as Obama noted in his world address regarding Nigeria’s presidential election of March 28. Her economy has been rebased to the tune of $510 billion. World rating agencies continue to indicate positive economic fundamentals, though the fall of crude oil prices and the insurgency problems that required extra military budget continue to threaten her annual budgets.
Besides, Nigeria is a regional power because of the size of her population. Dr. Chucks Osuji, a Public Relations Consultant and newspaper columnist noted: “Nigeria is an economic destination of the western world in the year 2020, so they are interested in Nigeria and her politics now and in future. A troubled Nigeria means a serious threat to their investments.”
Washington’s likely post-election behaviour
The outcome of the presidential election would influence Washington’s attitude a great deal afterwards. Success of the poll would mean good diplomatic relations between the two nations. It would erase any misconception and prediction of failed state being propounded about Nigeria, as well as vindicate Entwistle’s proclamation that the election won’t lead to the break-up of Nigeria.
According to a lecturer of political science at the University of Lagos who would not want his name disclosed, “U.S. has had a long term interest in seeing Nigeria split up along regional lines, but has been discreet about it. She believes that the present Nigerian structure does not encourage development and advancement of capitalism. Besides, there seems to be this perception in Washington that the only way to check global terror networks of ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Nigeria is to quietly restructure the country and allow the Muslims go their way. But the mood all over the world today is peaceful non-violent self-determination instead of wars, because Washington has a lot of foreign military expeditions in emerging theocratic states currently. So it is in her interest that Nigeria restructures along possible regional lines without needless war.”
Obviously, it would appear that Washington, which has shown genuine interest in Nigeria’s wellbeing, would want the coming elections take place peacefully, to determine precisely the level of her involvement in dealing with emerging terrorist threats in Africa as a whole, since Nigeria remains one country in the continent where she has the largest investments.
As Obama noted in her address, outcome of the elections would help Nigeria’s growth process, if all Nigerian people are given opportunity to vote freely their choice candidate without fear.
