By Emeka Alex Duru
Whatever the outcome of Lagos State All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship primary of Tuesday, October 2, 2018, the touted harmony and cohesion in the party, had been assaulted considerably.
A precedence may also have been set in the affairs of the party that may haunt it in the days ahead. Until the build-up to the 2019 general elections began to take shape, APC had prided itself as a party working in one accord. Even if the claim had been contested elsewhere, it was certainly not in the Lagos state wing of the party.
There was for instance, the assumption that with National Leader of the party and former governor of the state, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in charge, Lagos was on safe mode. More so, with the governor, Akinwunmi Ambode, thought to be on the same page with him, all was well. Again, the Tinubu political family which has been calling the shots in the state since the commencement of the current dispensation in 1999, has been known for giving the governors on its platform, second term ticket.
It was thus assumed that the governor was going to fly the flag of the party in 2019. Ambode may have also reasoned so, perhaps.
It however took unusual developments a couple of months ago for perceptive analysts to note the widening gulf in the party. What initially started as rumour in the social media on the disagreement between Tinubu and the governor, eventually turned real, when the APC Leader gave indications of supporting erstwhile Managing Director, Lagos State Property Development Company (LSPDC), Babajide Sanwo-Olu, for the office.
In the mist of the confusion, insinuations ran high that Ambode was advised to withdraw from the contest, at least to save face, an option, he reportedly turned down, hence the direct primary – the first of its kind in the politics of the state.
With results showing Sanwo-Olu in the lead, it was apparent that the governor had lost his second term bid, at least on the APC platform. What therefore happens for the governor between now and the 2019 elections, remains a matter of conjectures. On the surface, he is down, for now. And perhaps, out.
But for once, a loud voice has been raised on the Tinubu hegemonic control of the state’s politics. Since his controversial emergence as the Alliance for Democracy (AD) governorship candidate in 1998 and subsequent election as governor, Tinubu has been in total control of the state’s politics at all levels, even after serving his term. His supporters and critics alike, call him the Lion of Bourdillion– a reference he seems to cherish, or so it appears.
Whenever he roars, his protégés and opponents in the state, are caught with cold. In 2011, when he was said to be considering denying his successor, Babtunde Fashola, a second term ticket, the entire leadership of the APC in the state, literally went on knees in asking him to change his mind. Though Tinubu eventually acceded to the request, it was obvious that the former governor had lost his face. When therefore, Fashola was nominated as Minister by President Muhammadu Buhari, it was not for nothing that Tinubu was alleged to have stood against it. But Buhari had his way.
Tinubu, who does not take prisoners in a political battle, has not forgotten that episode, his close associates confess. He is said to be particularly rankled that that the seemingly harmless cob he had nurtured, had grown to a big lion with potentials of throwing him out of the den. He consequently vowed not to take any perceieved act of disloyalty, no matter how minute, from any quarters in the state, henceforth.
Thus, feeling that Ambode has also crossed the line, Tinubu quickly moved to whip him to line. But for the governor, it is too late, hence his determination to launch into the battle, head on.
The interpretation therefore, is that even with Sanwo-Olu appearing on the ballot as contesting the party’s ticket with Ambode, it is in actual fact, a battle of wits between Tinubu and his godson. Tinubu may win in the exercise. His newest political godson, Sanwo-Olu may even go ahead to emerge victorious in the 2019 elections, given the comatose state of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition parties in the state. But the myth surrounding the famed Jagaban, would have been demystified.
In the years ahead, he may have to contend with pockets of discontented voices in Lagos and even in the wider South West region that had complained of his suffocating style of politics, albeit in muffled tones.
The slim victory of his APC in Osun that remains controversial, was the initial signal that the days of Tinubu’s endorsement translating to automatic victory for a candidate in Lagos or any of the states in the zone, are gradually coming to an end.
More than this indication however, is the fear of possible implosion in the political family of the APC Leader. With some of his lieutenants in Lagos and neighbouring states, openly standing up to him on matters of principle and interest, all may not be too well with the famed Jagaban mystic, after all.
The other day, for instance, he was reported to have had a tiff with his former commissioner, Muiz Banire over the leadership of the party in the state. There were insinuations of his earlier disagreements with his erstwhile Information Commissioner, Opeyemi Bamidele and Ekiti governor-elect, Kayode Fayemi, at various times.
For the Lion of Bourdillion, therefore, it may not be too late to commence gradual withdrawal from the jungle before he gets devoured by the cobs of yesterday.
