Survey puts Osinbajo ahead of Aso Rock aspirants

Survey puts Osinbajo on the cusp of taking over from Buhari

By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor

Yemi Osinbajo is favoured by registered voters to take over from Muhammadu Buhari as President in 2023, a trend that had emerged two months before the Vice President declared his run for the Villa on 11 April, says a nationwide survey.

The survey conducted in February by the Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance (IFP&G) shows that Osinbajo is preferred by the majority of Nigerians, outperforming his nearest rival, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, by 17 points.

The result just released also shows that Osinbajo scored nearly 25 points more than Rabiu Kwankwaso, and nearly 29 points better than Bola Tinubu.

IFP&G said it did the poll from a random sample of 12,000 registered voters on the database of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) spread across the six zones.

Both Osinbajo and Tinubu (former Lagos Governor) are members of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Atiku is a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Kwankwaso, former Kano Governor on the platform of the PDP who is now a Senator, jumped ship to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) on 01 March 2022.

The poll result was announced in a statement signed by FPG Deputy Chairman, Professor Nasiru Yauri; Organising Secretary, Professor Yahaya Baba; and Member (South East) Professor Ike E. Ogba.

Osinbajo came first with 42.50 per cent, Atiku second (25.51 per cent), Kwankwaso third (18.07 per cent), and Tinubu (13.92).

Osinbajo reiterated on 26 April that he is the only person fully trained to be the next President among other aspirants and his current office positions him as the best fit for Nigeria’s highest and hottest seat of power.

His words: “I have served for the past seven years as the Vice President of Nigeria, and I have also acted within that period when the President was away.

“I think that I am fortunate, and we are fortunate to have been given tremendous opportunities to serve, also even when I acted (as President).

“In that capacity, I am probably the only person trained to be (in that duration), because if you have been a Vice President and also as Acting President, then you have been trained, and I must say with utmost humility that that is exactly how I feel.

“I feel that with what God has given me within the past seven and a half years, I must be able to give to my country.”

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Related articles:

Osinbajo in pole position declares run for President

Osinbajo pitches himself as best trained for President

Buhari insists on zoning Presidency to the South in 2023

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Other aspirants

Others who have declared their intention to contest for the Villa include:

• Yahaya Bello (Kogi Governor)
• Nyesom Wike (Rivers Governor)

• Bukola Saraki (former Senate President)
• Peter Obi (former Anambra Governor)

• Rochas Okorocha (former Imo Governor now Senator)
• Ibikunle Amosun (former Ogun Governor now Senator)

• Orji Kalu (former Abia Governor now Senator)
• Emeka Nwajiuba (Education Minister of State)

Breakdown of poll numbers

“Analysis of the results clearly indicated that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was the citizens’ choice as the next President of Nigeria,” IFP&G said, via reporting by The PUNCH.

“It can be argued that if Bola Tinubu was not one of the selected candidates in this survey, the likelihood is that Yemi Osinbajo would have picked up most of the votes, that is the 13.92 per cent who voted for Bola Tinubu, taking him well over the 50% mark which is enough to win any election going by past record of elections in Nigeria.

“Yemi Osinbajo was clearly the preferred candidate for both males and females nationally, with 41.29 per cent of males selecting him as their choice and 46.38 per cent of females selecting him.

“This can be compared with 15.16 per cent of the male gender selecting Bola Tinubu and 9.95% of the female gender selecting Bola Tinubu as their preferred candidate for president.”

IFP&G explained that Osinbajo also led in the South West, South East, and South South; Kwankwaso (North West), and Atiku (North East).

Tinubu’s camp disagrees with poll result

However, Dayo Adeyeye, former Works Minister now National Chairman of the South West Agenda for Tinubu 2023 Presidential Ambition questioned the findings.

“I have never heard about the group and I don’t know about their track record and experience in terms of carrying out survey of this nature. So, I will not consider their survey nor will I bother about it,” he said.

“I want you to go back and check a lot of election surveys in the past and juxtapose them with the ultimate outcome of the elections, you will see a huge disparity between them.

“This particular group, I don’t know who they are. Nigeria is such a country where some people will wake up one day, find a bogus name for themselves and claim to have conducted surveys that nobody can verify.”