Senior Correspondent, ISHAYA IBRAHIM, examines the 2015 governorship election in Kaduna State, situating the place of religion in deciding who picks the prize between Governor Ramalan Yero of PDP and Nasir el-Rufai of APC.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has had firm grip on Kaduna politics, wining all four previously governorship elections since 1999 with landslides.
But in 2015, the All Progressives Congress (APC) wants to turn the table around with Nasir el-Rufai, its flag bearer, who will square up against Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, the governor who doubles as the PDP candidate.
El-Rufai, former Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, has a huge following in the state, especially from the Northern senatorial district which has traditionally been opposition stronghold.
In previous elections, the voting mood of the Southern zone had largely favoured the PDP, while the Central had served as battle ground for both parties.
But in 2015, the APC might encroach into Kaduna South, the PDP stronghold. This is because the people of the area harbour a grudge against Yero for allegedly abandoning projects in their area which their son, former governor Ibrahim Yakowa who died halfway into his first term, initiated.
Yero said he discontinued some of the projects because he inherited an empty treasury from the Yakowa’s administration, a charge that has angered many indigenes of Southern Kaduna.
The indigenes noted that soon after the demise of Yakowa, Yero had at different forums claimed that the late governor left nothing in the purse of the state. Under the aegis of the Concerned Realists of Southern Kaduna Professionals, they had remarked that it was time for the governor to stop casting aspersions on their late son as they were yet to get over his demise.
They however added that if the governor had concrete evidence that the late governor left empty treasury, he should bring such forward rather than talking ill of the dead.
The Convener of the group, Dr. John Danfulani, who spoke at a press conference in Kaduna earlier in the year, insisted that no government in the world ever met a robust treasury, noting that it took leaders with ideas to create wealth for the sustainability of the state.
Danfulani asked the governor to forget his dream of coming back to the seat of power in 2015 because the people of the area had vowed to mobilise against him. He said that the governor deliberately scuttled most of the projects initiated by his predecessor and also frustrated efforts meant at bringing lasting peace to the area.
He words: “Stop persecuting Yakowa in death; you remain unelectable in Southern Kaduna come 2015 because of your insensitivity to the killings ravaging the Southern Kaduna area of Kaduna State; deceit and deliberate scuttling of all projects started by late Governor Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa. All the road projects and other projects initiated by late Yakowa which Governor Yero promised to continue have been put on hold without sufficient reasons. Apart from the new Kaduna Bridge constructed by the late Governor which was said to have been named after Yakowa, Governor Yero has not found it worthy to name a significant institution or structure after the late Governor.”
With this sentiment, analysts predict that the Southern zone might vote el-Rufai in protest against Yero.
In 2015, Yero, the governor and protege to Vice President Namadi Sambo, may have a double challenge, because his Godfather has little to contribute to his election. This is because Sambo lost in his polling unit in the presidential election in 2011. He was pelted by angry voters who wanted Muhammadu Buhari of the then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a Northern candidate, to win the presidential election.
Similar sentiments may play out in February because the electorate in Vice President Sambo’s poling unit are likely to reenact the same attitude against him.
Yero’s relationship with Sambo is also not likely to help his reelection. With a relationship which dated back to 1997, when he worked in Nalado Nigeria Limited, a company owned by Sambo, where he served at various times as chief accountant, many in Kaduna believe that the governor is a stooge of the Vice President.
However, El-Rufai also faces mountain of challenges in his bid for the Sir Kashim Ibrahim House, the seat of power in Kaduna State. He is likely to face stiff opposition in the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) in Kaduna State who may reject his candidature.
The former Minister is a major critic of the CAN national President, Ayo Oritsejafor. When the private jet of the CAN President was allegedly involved in illegal arms purchase deal in South Africa, he was critical of Oritsejafor, a situation that led to unpleasant releases from CAN. There had also been occasions where he had been alleged to have made statements that were targeted at Christians and Christianity.
In the coming election, the leadership of CAN in Kaduna State might consider it payback time for the former FCT minister for daring to hit at its national leader.
Kaduna people are historically religiously sensitive and any allegation of religious bias against a politician is taken seriously whether based on facts or not.
 has had firm grip on Kaduna politics, wining all four previously governorship elections since 1999 with landslides.){kind=link}