By Emeka Alex Duru
With the endorsement of the Direct Primary for the Edo chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party, the battle line is finally drawn between the governor, Godwin Obaseki and his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole. Both have come a long way, culminating in the emergence of Obaseki as governor in 2016. In similar vein, they have gone a long way in a consuming feud that has developed between them leading to their imminent titanic clash.
To be sure, Oshiomhole is not in the race. He has served his constitutionally guaranteed eight years of two terms. He is currently the national chairman of APC. But he is a big factor in APC politics in the state. Obaseki is angling for a second term. Ordinarily, his emergence as the party’s candidate should have been a mere formality at the June 22 primary, given what his admirers flaunt as his giant strides in repositioning the state. But he is presently hanging on the cliff, with fears of the likelihood of his being denied the party’s ticket.
By Wednesday June 3, five other aspirants had signified interest in the contest. They are Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu a recent returnee from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Chairman, Oredo Local Government Area (LGA), Osaro Obaze, Dr. Pius Odubu, a former Deputy Governor, Matthew Iduoriyekemwe, a two-term Majority Leader, in the State House of Assembly and former Minister of State for Works, Mr. Chris Ogiemwonyi.
Ize-Iyamu is seen as the aspirant Oshiomhole intends to use to undo Obaseki. When the two clashed in 2016, Obaseki had upper hand with heavy deployment of the so-called power of incumbency by Oshiomhole who was then the governor. He had then lionised Obaseki as the best thing to have happened to Edo, while demonising Ize-Iyamu as one lacking in integrity. The table has now changed. For the APC chairman, seeing the back of Obaseki is a task that must be accomplished.
Since the inauguration of Obaseki, a sizzling battle for control of the state’s politics has ensued between him and his erstwhile godfather. At various times in the clash, each had had upper hand against the other, albeit momentarily. When for instance, Oshiomhole had problems with some of his colleagues in the NWC earlier in the year and was almost pushed out of his position, Obaseki and his camp had sniggered extensively. But a combination of support from President Muhammadu Buhari and former Lagos governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was all that the chairman needed to swim out of his travails. Not given to forgiving the least of perceived infractions, he has angled for an opportunity to pay the governor in his own coins.
Direct Primary as the clincher
The direct primary seems to have provided the former governor a chance to get back at his successor. Direct primary means all card-carrying members of the party from local government areas of the state will be eligible to vote in order to produce a candidate. Curiously, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party had stated that each state is at liberty to adopt any method it prefers. Against that backdrop, the State faction of the party loyal to the governor has kicked against the adoption of the method, fearing that it is aimed at bringing him down.
Like Lagos, like Edo?
Lagos state chapter of the party had adopted direct primary in the buildup to the 2019 elections, following the crisis between Tinubu and the then governor, Akinwunmi Ambode. The ex-governor had kicked against the mode of the selection, while the party’s NWC had stuck with Tinubu. Ambode, though a sitting governor, eventually lost to Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who later emerged governor.
There are strong suspicions that this is what Oshiomhole intends to replicate in Edo with the party’s leadership behind him. Not even Obaseki’s recent desperate visit to Buhari appeared to have earned him the needed breather. If anything, the waiver granted to Ize-Iyamu, PDP governorship candidate in 2016, to partake in the primary, shows the extent APC leadership has gone in pressing the throttle against the governor. Direct primary is becoming the ready tool for godfathers in APC to whip errant governors to line. When it was employed against Amode, even his Deputy with whom he would have gone for a second term, jilted him for Sanwo-Olu, Tinubu’s candidate. Obaseki faces similar situation.
Can Obaseki stand on his own?
Even with what seems a dark cloud on his political career, the governor is not backing out. The other day in a Television programme, he vowed that he would not be cowed out of the race despite the obvious obstacles on his way. “I am confident that the way I got into power is the same way I will return. God gave me power. If He wants me to return, I will continue. No man can stop me. Power comes from God”, he remarked.
Knowing how the primary and the eventual election that produced him four years ago was schemed in his favour, the governor stands little chance of making it.
By the time the chips are down, it would be clearer that the other names thrown up as fellow aspirants are merely distracters lined up to clear the coast for Ize-Iyamu. The allegation against him of swearing in only 10 out of the 24 members of the state’s legislature, may equally weigh against him. Even the 10 that may seem to be his supporters may not count for him, if the rate at which politicians dump their distraught colleagues, is to serve as guide.
PDP to the rescue?
There have been suggestions of the governor running to the PDP, if the push comes to a shove. He has denied this option, though. But if eventually ditched by APC on June 22, that may be the only way for him to stand in the September 19 governorship election in the state. There is history in that respect. At the height of the Benue APC leadership tussle between Senator George Akume and Governor Samuel Ortom, the governor left the party for the PDP in the run up to the 2019 elections. He emerged the winner. Same can be done in Edo, analysts submit. Shun of the regular controversies that arise at governorship primary that has always cost it state elections, PDP in Edo, is a strong force. With good showings in national elections, the party can ride with the governor to give Oshiomhole and the APC a good fight.
Zamfara scenario beckons
Obaseki may also choose to play the spoiler for the party as pay back. This may recreate the Zamfara scenario. Following similar intervention of the NWC in the internal affairs of Zamfara APC in 2018, the former governor, Abdullaziz Yari, barred the electoral panel from the national headquarters from conducting the governorship and legislative assembly primaries in the state. In what later turned out a violation of the extant laws, the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) and the APC constitution, the Zamfara chapter conducted the primaries, and won all positions at the general election. The Courts however nullified the results as “wasted votes, for breaking its own (APC) rules and as required by law and awarded the victories to the runner-up, the PDP. Oshiomhole was incidentally the national chairman at the time. Will this be the case in Edo?
