Nigeria beyond Buhari

By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor

 

Muhammadu Buhari has not delivered. That is clear. Even to himself.

You need a credible opposition to unseat him. In the absence of that, he may win the vote in 2019 by default, or by hook or by crook, and serve out a second term until 2023.

His failings are many, and obvious. Four more years of Buhari as President from 2019 would not be in the “perfect will of God” (Romans 12:2 NKJV). If that were to happen, it would be in the permissive will of God.

 

Man has been disobedient to God since Adam.

 

Where the ideal is lacking, God often allows things – bizarre things, even cruel things – to happen in His permissive will to achieve His perfect will in the end. “The wrath of man shall praise [God]” (Psalm 76:10 NKJV).

 

Vision for the 21st century

 

The Buhari generation includes those in the forefront in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to take over from him. They are of the same kind. Even if he or someone like him wins in 2019, the country will remain in the dark for at least another four years.

 

Nigeria needs to pivot with the rest of the world into technology infrastructure, boosted by the internet, as well as breakthroughs in science and medical research – all hinged on emphasis on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) subjects in schools.

 

Also, the economy needs to be diversified to develop and grow all sectors.

 

Buhari is too old, weak, and insular to lead the country in this era. It is not a matter simply of chronological age. It is about vision.

 

That vision has not been demonstrated by him or by anyone else with a strong political platform in this election cycle.

 

Two planks

 

There are two planks to move Nigeria on beyond Buhari.

 

Plank A. Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) wins a second term and lays the foundation for Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to become President in 2023 and start to transform Nigeria.

 

Plank B. Another person say, Atiku Abubakar, gets the Presidency in 2019 on the dais of the PDP. He serves two terms till 2027. He lays the groundwork for the Vice President say, former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, to become President and begin to transform Africa’s most populous nation.

 

If Atiku wins the PDP ticket, he has to choose as Vice President a man of public integrity from the South East, someone like Obi, to serve with him in Aso Rock and become President in 2023 or 2027.

 

Since Nigeria returned to democracy two decades ago, both the North Central and the South East have not produced the President or Vice President.

 

Unlike the South East, however, the North Central is not agitating for President. The three Northern zones – North East, North West, North Central – are generally united politically.

 

Even though there are pockets of differences, the North is largely one political bloc because of its common language (Hausa), culture, religion (Islam), and social orientation. Once a man from any part of the North is President, the Northern oligarchy is satisfied.

 

The South is generally Christian. But, politically, it is divided into South West, South East, and South South. Each of the three zones fights stoutly for its corner.

 

Since 1999

 

• The South West has had its slot in Aso Rock through Olusegun Obasanjo (President, 1999-2007). With Atiku (North East) as Vice President.

 

• The North West has produced Umaru Yar’Adua as President (2007-2010). With Goodluck Jonathan (South South) as Vice President.

 

• The South South has ruled through Jonathan (2010-2015). With Namadi Sambo (North West) as Vice President.

 

• The North West has also produced the President through Buhari (2015 – to date). With Yemi Osinbajo (South West) as Vice President.

 

When Yar’Adua (North West) was President, he was seen as generally representing the interest of the entire North, both core and periphery.

 

As Buhari (North West) is President, he is seen as generally representing the interest of the entire North, the core and the periphery.

 

But when Obasanjo (South West) was President, he was not perceived as speaking for the entire South that includes the South East and South South.

 

When Jonathan (South South) was President, South Westerners did not see him as their own. And the South East did not feel that his presence in Aso Rock had fulfilled its own yearning for the post.

 

This is the political reality in today’s Nigeria.

 

Therefore, to be fair, the South East should be on pole position to produce the President two or three election cycles from now.

 

It starts with a man from the South East serving as Vice President and going on to take over from the President, who is from the North.

 

In Nigeria, it is now cast in stone that both the President and the Vice President do not come from the same region. One is from the North, the other South, and vice versa.

 

Restructuring the country

 

Nigeria cannot develop unless it rectifies its ethnic fault lines.

 

The 250 ethnic groups hardly co-operate to solve national problems. North or South, neighbouring states with the same language, religion, and culture barely accommodate themselves.

 

The grouses are embedded in the injustices in the Nigerian structure, which date from 1914 when the British amalgamated the Northern and Southern divides of the River Niger into one country by fiat and called it Nigeria.

 

The North has ruled the country most years since independence in 1960.

 

The Northern elite takes advantage of that to divert to itself resources from the South, without upgrading the North, where most of the illiterate and the poor live.

 

“More than 60 per cent of the population in the North West and North Eastern parts of Nigeria are in severe poverty. The situation has been compounded by falling oil prices,” lamented Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group.

 

But many in the Northern oligarchy are millionaires, living off the sweat of the poor.

 

One of the very few exceptions is Dangote, a hardworking industrialist and generous philanthropist. After graduating from university, he went into business at the age of 20 in 1977 with N500,000 borrowed from his grandfather – which he paid back within six months from his profit.

 

About 95 per cent of lucrative oil block licences in the South is owned by people from the North East, where there is no oil exploration. The lopsided allocation was started by Nigeria’s first Petroleum Minister (1972-1975), Shettima Ali Monguno.

 

Monguno hailed from Borno State in the North East.

 

The general thinking in the North is that the South works for the North to enjoy. The South, particularly the oil-producing states, feel cheated.

 

The Northern elite has had, and is fixated on, national political power. It also has leeway in the federal economy. Yet, the North is less educated than the South and is far poorer.

 

Of the 58 years since independence, the North has ruled 41years: through

 

• Tafawa Balewa (October 1960 – January 1966 = five years)
• Yakubu Gowon (July 1966 – July 1975 = nine years)

 

• Murtala Mohammed (July 1975 – February 1976 = six months)
• Shehu Shagari (October 1979 – December 1983 = four years)

 

• Muhammadu Buhari (December 1983 – August 1985 = one year, eight months)
• Ibrahim Babangida (August 1985 – August 1993 = nine years)

 

• Sani Abacha (November 1993 – June 1998 = five years, five months)
• Abubakar Abdulsalami (June 1998 – May 1999 = one year)

 

• Umaru Yar’Adua (May 2007 – May 2010 = three years)
• Muhammadu Buhari (May 2015 – to date = three years)

 

The South has ruled 17 years: through

 

• Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi (January 1966 – July 1966 = six months)
• Olusegun Obasanjo (February 1976 – October 1979 = three years, eight months)

 

• Ernest Shonekan (August 1993 – November 1993 = three months)

 

• Olusegun Obasanjo (May 1999 – May 2007 = eight years)
• Goodluck Jonathan (May 2010 – May 2015 = five years)

 

Clamour has been going on for years for the restructuring of Nigeria into a true federalism. On the front burner is fiscal federalism.

 

Restructuring agitators want each state to keep

 

1. a) its internally generated revenue (IGR) through taxes and business holdings

and

1. b) the larger chunk of any federal revenue collected in the state.

 

A state keeps 50 per cent federal revenue generated in the state – from natural resources, like minerals; but not from federal taxes, like Customs duties – and remits 50 per cent to Abuja; shared 30 per cent (federal treasury) and 20 per cent (other states).

 

This way, every state makes as much money as it can and develops at its own pace – as it was in the old Northern, Western, and Eastern Regions.

 

In the current arrangement, all federally collected revenue from all parts of the country is sent to Abuja and shared between the federal government and states. Oil states get an additional 13 per cent to their basic allocation.

 

Buhari does not support restructuring. Atiku backs it.

 

But among those with political name recognition currently who are in a good position and most likely to restructure Nigeria fully are Osinbajo and Obi.

 

 

North is the battleground in 2019

 

The North is the battleground in the presidential vote next year.

 

The South West has little at stake this time around, and is lukewarm about the ballot, having recently had its own day in the sun in Aso Rock for eight years – and by 2019 would have served another four years as Vice President.

 

All the six states in the region are ruled by the APC.

 

In 2011, Lagos voted Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) for Governor and the PDP for President. The worst case scenario for Buhari in the zone in 2019 is that some states there go APC in the governorship and swing PDP in the presidential.

 

Overall, however, Buhari will bank the popular vote in the South West – more by legitimate vote, less by rigging – because

 

1. a) All the APC Governors in the zone will support him down ballot since they themselves want to remain in office and be linked directly to the trappings of federal power in Abuja.

 

1. b) Osinbajo as Vice President benefits the region.

 

1. c) He may become President after Buhari.

 

1. d) There is no incentive for the South West to vote PDP in this election, no matter who is on its ticket.

 

Of the 11 states in the South East and South South, the PDP has governors in eight. The APC has in  two, Imo and Edo; the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in one, Anambra.

 

Both zones are locked down for the PDP in 2019.

 

Buhari has not assuaged the raw feelings of South Easterners that he ignores them in important federal jobs and fails to prosecute Fulani herdsmen murderers who have rampaged parts of the region.

 

To win the Villa, a candidate must score at least 25 per cent of the vote in 24 of the 36 states and also get the majority vote. That majority could be by just one vote.

 

If candidate A scores 101 votes and candidate B 100, candidate A wins.

 

Buhari won in 2015 by carrying both the North and the South West. The South East and South South shunned him.

 

He retains his job in 2019 if he gets 25 per cent in all the 19 Northern states, grabs the popular vote there, and banks the South West. What happens in the South East and South South also will not matter.

 

In the presidential ballot, the South West is as good as decided for the APC, and both the South East and South South for the PDP.

 

By mid July 2018, the PDP ruled two states in the North – Taraba and Gombe.

 

By early August 2018, three Northern Governors – Samuel Ortom (Benue), Abdulfattah Ahmed (Kwara), and Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto) – had defected from the APC to the PDP together with their supporters. That gave the PDP five states in the region and the APC 14.

 

More Northern APC Governors may defect to the PDP before election day, and that will put more pressure on Buhari in the zone in addition to the historical gripes about him in the North Central.

 

The PDP candidate will come from the North. That throws up in the region a popularity contest between Buhari and his adversary.

 

For all of this, therefore, the North is the battleground.

 

To defeat Buhari, his opponent must have the political muscle to carry at least nine states in the North and give him a run for his vote by scoring at least 25 per cent in most of the other 10 states in the region.

 

He also must garner about 40 per cent of the popular vote in the entire North in the head-to-head with Buhari.

 

With that result in the North, the opponent becomes President with the backing of the 11 states in the South East and South South, minus Imo and Edo. Calculating that Anambra is likely PDP.

 

In this scenario, the opponent scores at least 25 per cent in 17 states in the North, in four in the South West, and in nine in the South East and South South.

 

Then he gets the majority vote in 18 states – nine in the North, nine in the South East and South South.

 

Buhari also gets at least 25 per cent in 24 or more states, and clinches the popular vote in 18 states – 10 in the North, six in the South West, one in the South East, one in the South South.

 

However, the popular vote the opponent gets in nine states in the South East and South South outweighs the popular vote Buhari gets in the six states in the South West, and rides out the shortfall in the North.

 

Overall, the opponent wins the majority national vote if he scores 40 per cent in the North, 40 per cent in the South West, 80 per cent in the South East and South South.

 

Of the 60-plus political parties, the APC and the PDP alone control most states. The APC rules 22, the PDP 13, APGA one.

 

Governors, leaders of their parties in the states, play a crucial role in elections.

 

To have a realistic chance of winning the biggest one in the Villa, a political party has to control some states or form alliance with a party that controls some states or regions/councils.

 

This is also the reality in other democracies – India, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Brazil, et cetera – where the President or Prime Minister must of necessity emerge from a political party that controls parts of the country.

 

Therefore, only the PDP has the political structure, the machinery, and the ground experience to compete effectively with the APC nationally in this election.

 

The PDP becomes stronger if it strikes alliance with other parties.

 

Since – psychologically, and in reality – the Presidency rotates North in this election cycle, the PDP has to field a Northern political heavyweight against Buhari. If the PDP candidate picks a credible man from the South East as Vice Presidential candidate, without the APC rigging, Imo goes PDP.

 

In that case, the PDP carries 19 states; Buhari 17.

 

Who matches Buhari in the North?

 

Buhari is now a hard sell, even to those who voted or campaigned for him in 2015.

 

The last straw is his failure to prosecute Fulani cattle rearers, his kinsmen who murder farmers, especially as he shifts blame on those whose farmlands are invaded by nomads with illegal guns.

 

More than 1,300 Nigerians were killed by the herdsmen between January and June 2018 alone, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

 

The Northern elite feels embarrassed by the actions and inactions of Buhari, seeing him as fueling the general perception that Northerners are not competent to rule the country.

 

Former Ahmadu Bello University Vice Chancellor, Ango Abdullahi, now Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF) Spokesperson, says support for Buhari is not guaranteed.

 

In July 2018, leaders of the NEF and other ethnic and sectional groups issued a communique after their meeting which accused the Buhari administration of incompetence in handling national security.

 

Against a fellow Northern candidate, Buhari is generally secure in only 10 states in the region. Nine are in play.

 

Ishaya Ibrahim, a journalist and Northern affairs expert, named six politicians he believes can do well against Buhari in the North or substantially dent his vote.

 

His words: “Let us start on the premise that the Presidency is still ceded to the North in 2019. There are many Northerners with national name recognition who can beat Buhari in the North.

 

“They include

 

1. “Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto Governor, PDP)

 

“Before his defection on August 1, 2018, Tambuwal had been romancing with the PDP and throwing indirect punches at Buhari, blaming poor leadership for the killings by Fulani herdsmen across the country.

 

“He built his political base as House of Reps Speaker, which he has strengthened since becoming Governor. He has admirers in the South because of his liberal religious views.

 

“Emeka Ihedioha, who was his Deputy in the House, has been visiting him at Government House, Sokoto. Nyesom Wike (Rivers Governor) has also been paying him visits.

 

“In 2016, Tambuwal visited Abia on the invitation of Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, where he commissioned road projects.

 

“Tambuwal also has the credibility of not having any case with the EFCC [Economic and Financial Crimes Commission] or linked to any corrupt deal.

 

“He is very popular in Sokoto.

 

“The Christians in the North will accept his candidacy because of his tolerant religious views. He will also get at least 30 per cent of the Muslim vote. Combining that with at least 90 per cent Northern Christian vote, that gives him a clear lead against Buhari.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Tambuwal is likely to win eight states – Sokoto, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Tambuwal in the North, Buhari is likely to win 11 states – Gombe, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Bauchi.

 

2. “Sule Lamido (former Jigawa Governor, PDP)

 

“Lamido will defeat Buhari in Jigawa and give him a run for his money in Kano, because Jigawa was formerly part of Kano. Many residents of Kano are from Jigawa and they have a fondness for Lamido because of the way he treats them.

 

“He is well connected among Northern politicians. He was a protégé of Aminu Kano. He inherited Abubakar Rimi’s political structure. He is a full-blooded Fulani man who can match Buhari language for language, religion for religion.

 

“He is more educated than Buhari and that makes him more appealing to the Northern elite who see Buhari as not representing them well, a view espoused by Ango Abdullahi, Spokesperson of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF).

 

“Abdullahi, a professor, has said that Buhari is not an option for the North in 2019.

 

“Lamido will appeal to the Christian North because Jigawa never had any religious crisis during his governorship. He will ride on the momentum of the PDP in the South, especially in the South East and South South.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Lamido is likely to win eight states – Jigawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Lamido in the North, Buhari is likely to win 11 states – Gombe, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Bauchi.

 

 

3. “Ahmed Makarfi (former Kaduna Governor, PDP)

 

“Makarfi will ride on the support of the Christian North. When he was Governor, he was believed to be fair to Christians during the volatile Shariah wave that swept through the region.

 

“He effectively contained at a rapid speed the crises that arose in 2000 and 2002.

 

“He supported the appointment of Northern Christians at the federal level, notably Isaiah Balat, the first Kaduna Christian to be a Minister; Martin Agwai, the first Christian Chief of Defence Staff from Kaduna; and Luka Yusuf, the first Christian Chief of Army Staff from Kaduna.

 

“Makarfi recommended all these people to Obasanjo who appointed them.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Makarfi is likely to win seven states – Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Makarfi in the North, Buhari is likely to win 12 states – Gombe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Bauchi.

 

4. “Rabiu Kwankwaso (former Kano Governor, PDP)

 

“Kwankwaso was in the APC splinter group called the Reformed APC (rAPC) which signed an MoU [Memorandum of Understanding] merger with the PDP in July 2018. He finally defected to the PDP in early August 2018.

 

“Kwankaso was Kano Governor for two terms, 1999 to 2003 and 2011 to 2015.

 

“He has a fanatical support in Kano because of the way he ran the state as Governor. He built a lot of flyover bridges in major cities, schools and hospitals in several councils, and governed Kano between 2011 and 2015 when Nigeria had economic prosperity.

 

“Kano’s federal allocation during his time was huge and he was able to achieve all these projects.

 

“Kano is the second most populous state after Lagos. There is no voter apathy in Kano. The residents always turn out in large numbers in every election. This is a plus for Kwankwaso.

 

“The spillover effect that will have on other Northern states will brighten his chances against Buhari.

 

“For instance, Jigawa was created out of Kano in 1991 and the residents have retained their social, cultural, and religions links with Kano indigenes. So, what happens in Kano has a spillover in Jigawa.

 

“Kwankwaso is also very popular in Kaduna where many traders display his posters.

 

“However, during his two governorship terms, he neglected the Sabongari area of Kano populated by people from the South who are mainly Christians. He is therefore perceived to be anti-Southerners and by extension anti-Christian.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Kwankwaso is likely to win eight states – Kano, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Kwankwaso in the North, Buhari is likely to win 11 states – Gombe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Bauchi.

 

5. “Ibrahim Dankwanbo (Gombe Governor, PDP)

 

“Dankwanbo is a PDP Governor in Gombe who is able to hold his ground despite the APC sweeping most of the Northern states.

 

“His achievements in Gombe must have spoken volumes to enable him win a second term in 2015. He may just enjoy the structure of the PDP which is present in all the wards in the North.

 

“A technocrat, he served as Accountant General of the Federation under Jonathan. That gives him some political leeway in the South.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Dankwanbo is likely to win eight states – Gombe, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Dankwanbo in the North, Buhari is likely to win 11 states – Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Bauchi.

 

6. “Atiku Abubakar (former Vice President, PDP)

 

“Atiku has the biggest name recognition among all the Northern candidates vying against Buhari.

 

“He had worked at the federal level as a Customs officer in charge of security. He resigned to set up his business empire, and bought shares in Intels, the biggest port logistics company in Nigeria.

 

“Then he became Vice President under Obasanjo, with whom he served in Aso Rock between 1999 and 2007.

 

“Atiku is also by far the richest among the Northern contenders, including Buhari.

 

“Adamawa State Governor, Jubrila Bindow, has stated publicly that Atiku donated N500 million to his campaign in 2015.

 

“In 2018, Intels donated a N1.8 billion modern market to Onne community in Akwa Ibom.

 

“He can substantially weaken Buhari’s vote in the North.

 

“Atiku is not so loved by Northern Muslims who see him as too liberal, citing as part of evidence, his marriage to Titi (from the South West) and Jennifer (South East).

 

“But he can win the Northern Christian vote to offset part of his loss in the Muslim vote.

 

“He is also more popular in the Christian South than all the Northern contenders. He recommended many of the key appointments Obasanjo made – including those of Charles Soludo [former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor] and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala [former Finance Minister].

 

“Atiku openly supports restructuring the Nigerian state, a matter close to the heart of many ethnic nationalities who agitate for resource control and true fiscal federalism.

 

“Against Buhari in the North, Atiku is likely to win nine states – Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and Kogi.

 

“Against Atiku in the North, Buhari is likely to win 10 states – Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, and Bauchi.”

 

Getting Nigeria on track

 

Kehinde Okeowo, a political scientist and human resources expert, first looked back at recent political history before making a pick for a new President.

 

“We started with Obasanjo [as President in 1999],” Okeowo recounted.

 

“Obasanjo [then] influenced the choice of the next President, Yar’Adua. We later knew that his state of health was not the best. Obasanjo had also given him a Deputy, Jonathan, who was not prepared for governance at the federal level.

 

“Jonathan became Bayelsa Governor by providence, and also became President by providence. He was not prepared for the jobs.

 

“Because we picked the wrong people, they managed the country badly and so the socio-economic and political life of the country deteriorated. That also necessitated the clamour for a person who would come and rectify the blunders of former administrations.

 

“Corruption was fingered as the main reason why there was so much mismanagement in the past.  Therefore, Nigerians looked for a person who is almost incorruptible. That brought the clamour for Buhari.

 

“But during his administration we have seen that he is not the same man we knew in 1983 when he was military Head of State. A combination of health issues and old age seems to have slowed him down.

 

“Because of that, the three cardinal points which his administration is hinged upon – fight corruption, insecurity, and boost the economy – have not lived up to expectation.

 

“Therefore, either he wins in 2019 or loses, Nigeria will need a younger and more strategic person who is prepared for the job to lead the country.

 

The kind of person to rule

 

“This kind of leader I am talking about is someone who has excelled in his or her chosen career, and the track record is there, and has also shown leadership qualities in his field.

 

“The person must have zero tolerance for corruption and a clear strategy through which he or she intends to lead the country.

 

“Examples of people like this include

 

• “Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala [former Finance Minister]
• “Babatunde Fashola [former Lagos Governor now Minister of Power, Works, and Housing]

 

• “Yemi Osinbajo [Vice President]
• “Peter Obi [former Anambra Governor]

 

• “Shehu Sanni [Senator, APC, Kaduna] and
• “Donald Duke [former Cross River Governor].

 

“What is common to all these people is that they have shown strategic ability to formulate and implement policies.

 

“All of them, apart from Okonj-Iweala, are politicians and therefore, they understand the terrain very well.

 

“However, if I am compelled to pick just one of them, I will be more comfortable with Okonjo-Iweala.

 

“She presided over the distribution and release of funds to states, local governments, ministries, the legislature, judiciary, other agencies of government, and contractors – yet she has not been found culpable for embezzling funds or complicit in their misuse.

 

“She can win the presidential election by starting early and engaging social platform to tell the electorate what she has to offer, and that she is a departure from the old order that has impoverished them.

 

“Because she does not have the kind of money in the hands of today’s politicians, she has to adopt some strategies that would give the political leverage needed both for her campaign and logistics.

 

“All the rest have the political experience and expediency to navigate the turbulent Nigerian political sphere.

 

Solution to the national question

 

“The way Nigeria is currently structured, I do not think these eggheads would make much progress despite their competence. Therefore, there is a need to ensure a structure that is more pragmatic in a heterogeneous society like Nigeria.

 

“Restructuring will lead to a confederal system in which the centre is weaker than the component units, as we had in the First Republic.

 

“A nation consists of people of the same language, culture, hopes, and aspirations. A state is a combination of people bounded by a geographical location.

 

“Nigeria is not a nation but a nation-state.

 

“A typical Nigerian first of all holds allegiance to his ethnic nationality before the Nigerian state. In his mind, someone from the South East is first of all an Ibo man before claiming to be a Nigerian. Ditto someone from the South West and the North.

 

“States where resources, like oil and other mineral and agricultural and allied resources are produced, should have the larger share of the income. For instance, if Rivers produces oil worth $100 it should get $50 and other states should share $30 and $20 should go to the federal purse.

 

“Same for every other state that produces anything. Every state will then have the need to generate resources to grow at its own pace, rather than the current system where every state waits for allocation from the federal government.

 

“We are a heterogeneous nation with different languages, cultures, hopes, and aspirations.

 

“The beauty of restructuring is that states or regions will develop at their own pace without necessarily holding down others.

 

“There is no way Nigeria can develop with the current system of freebies where some states get federal allocation without contribution.

 

“States should contribute to the development of other states only at the beginning of restructuring. Later on, no state should give subvention to another. Only a small percentage of what a state makes should be remitted to the centre to fund the federal administration.

 

“The current national structure encourages laziness in some states. When they no longer get federal allocation, they will sit up.

 

“Nigeria should remain one country because it needs the size and population to remain a world player.”

 

However, all the people Okeowo picked to fix Nigeria do not have the political platform and the ground game to win Aso Rock in this election cycle.

 

If they are really keen on the Presidency, they have to grow their base, devise strategy, and wait their turn at the right time.

 

Winning combination against Buhari countrywide

 

The only way the PDP can match and hope to defeat Buhari is to choose Atiku as its presidential candidate. The winning combination is for Atiku to name Obi as his running mate.

 

Any other combination apart from Atiku/Obi on the ticket of the PDP weakens its position and automatically hands victory to the APC through legitimate vote or through rigging.

 

The PDP rigged elections when it was in power. The APC will also rig in some places in 2019, as it allegedly did in the Ekiti governorship vote in July 2018.

 

But if the PDP fields an Atiku/Obi ticket, it will be difficult for the PDP to conspire with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to manipulate the overall presidential ballot in favour of Buhari.

 

The PDP wins the Villa if

 

• It presents an Atiku/Obi ticket.
• Atiku campaigns with a credible manifesto.

 

• He runs a solid ground game for down ballot.

 

• There is a massive turn out in the South East and South South on election day.
• People vote freely.

 

• Votes are not voided.
• Election result is not falsified.

 

• Atiku gets at least 40 per cent of the Northern vote.
• Wins at least 40 per cent of the vote in the South West.

 

• Carries up to 80 per cent of the vote in the South East and South South.

 

The APC retains the Villa if

 

• It presents a Buhari/Osinbajo ticket.

 

• Buhari consolidates his stronghold in the North and gets – legitimately or by rigging – more than 60 per cent of the vote in the region.

 

• Garners – legitimately or by rigging – more than 60 per cent of the ballot in the South West.

 

• Scrapes up – legitimately or by rigging – more than 20 per cent of the ballot in the South East and South South.

 

Return of PDP, Nigeria’s failure

 

The mere thought of the PDP returning to Aso Rock four years after its ouster signposts the failure of Nigeria’s political structure.

 

The PDP ruled 16 years, from 1999 to 2015, with little to show for it in development. The country revelled in corruption that dwarfed that of the military era.

 

The Obasanjo administration alone spent $16 billion on power supply, with hardly a flicker of stable light anywhere. The money went down the drain.

 

Corruption will return under Atiku. It will be far greater than the one now going on under Buhari’s watch.

 

What Nigeria really aims at is an era post-Buhari and post-Atiku and their generation. It has to stoop to conquer. Nigeria has to put up with, and step on, the ladder of mediocrity to attain something better.

 

You cannot replace Buhari with Osinbajo until Buhari runs his course. If Atiku defeats Buhari in 2019, you cannot replace Atiku with Obi except Atiku serves out his tenure, which could be four or eight years.

 

Osinbajo’s pedigree and prospects

 

Before he became Vice President, Osinbajo had distinguished himself as Commissioner for Justice in Lagos. One standing achievement is the office of public defender he created to provide free legal service to citizens who would have been deprived of access to justice.

 

He is in the APC think tank which produced a social welfare blueprint during the 2015 campaign that Buhari has failed to implement.

 

Osinbajo, a level headed academic and technocrat, supports restructuring Nigeria.

 

He is from the South West where the most educated and politically enlightened electorate in the country demand verifiable achievements from their leaders.

 

Obafemi Awolowo as Premier of the Western Region set its standard for good governance from 1955. Among other achievements, he provided free quality education, created Wemaboard Estates, built Cocoa House in Ibadan, Western House and Investment House in Lagos, which rent out office space.

 

Awo, a meticulous, visionary technocrat, created O’dua Investment Company to generate and manage funds for the projects – which also include the first television station in Africa, a radio station, the University of Ife, later named after him; and the acquisition of what is now known as Wema Bank.

 

All have endured.

 

The projects laid the foundation for the South West to become the most educated and most developed part of the country.

 

Ever since, the region has been conscious and proud of the concrete achievements of the Awolowo years, and does not tolerate incompetent Governors or other public officials.

 

Osinbajo is married to Awo’s granddaughter, Dolapo.

 

He knows he must deliver if elected President, or else even his own base – vociferous with several media megaphones – will knock him publicly. As the South West kept Obasanjo’s feet to the fire when he was in Aso Rock.

 

Osinbajo acted as President for various days in February 2016, June 2016, and January 2017.

 

But his potential came into full display when he acted as President for 3 months (May 7 – August 19) in 2017 when Buhari was on prolonged medical treatment abroad.

 

Osinbajo travelled North and South to connect with the man on the street. He listened and took in ideas on how to solve problems.

 

Some see him as lacking the backbone to influence Buhari. This is true. But Osinbajo is not alone in that political cul-de-sac.

 

Buhari is provincial. His inner circle are relatives, his townsmen, and cronies; he conducts national affairs with them in Hausa and they are the real power behind the throne in the Villa.

 

Buhari is insular, incompetent, and a low flyer. If Osinbajo or a minister attempts to function beyond Buhari’s comfort zone of mediocrity, he will be isolated in the cabinet or frustrated or shown the door altogether.

 

In every government department, Buhari’s people squeal on some contemporaries and superiors or frustrate their good intentions. If a minister who is not in the inner circle gives a legitimate order, a junior official may refuse to carry it out and get away with it once he has connections above.

 

This partly explains why Fashola, who performed well as Lagos Governor, is barely up to scratch as a Minister in Abuja. A Governor wields power and can sack an insubordinate official. A Minister may lack such a clout, particularly in the Buhari administration.

 

Osinbajo has more brilliant ideas than Buhari has allowed him to show.

 

When Buhari was out of town and Osinbajo acted as President he travelled South and told Niger Delta agitators that if they organised themselves into co-operatives they would be given licences to refine crude oil to supplement imports.

 

The militants were pleased. They jubilated.

 

Bola Tinubu, former Lagos Governor, also wants to be President. He says he will contest once Buhari is not on the ticket.

 

But the South West, which has served out its own eight years in the Villa in this dispensation, does not deserve to produce the President after Buhari.

 

It is not a question of whether or not the APC rotates the Presidency like the PDP. It is a question of what is morally right and wrong when other zones are still left in the cold.

 

Ordinarily, Osinbajo from the South West would not feature as a potential successor to Buhari. But he is the Vice President who is only a breath away from the top job and should not step down for anyone, including Tinubu.

 

Everywhere else, once the President leaves office, the Vice President steps in; unless he is not interested in becoming the main man or is legally barred, or prevented by ill health or other rational circumstances.

 

It is awkward for Tinubu to contest an APC presidential primary against Osinbajo, a sitting Vice President. Both of them are from the South West and in the same political party.

 

If Osinbajo steps down for him or Tinubu muscles his way through delegates to get the ticket, awkward will turn into repulsive.

 

The APC will be divided and may lose the plot and lose the ballot.

 

Only the unique position of Osinbajo as Vice President makes him stand a chance of being voted nationally as President. Because of Nigeria’s political structure, someone else from the South West cannot get the presidential ticket of either the APC or the PDP in 2023 and win election.

 

After Buhari’s tenure – and, by extension, the end of the current presidential zoning to the North; even though the APC claims to disregard zoning, thereby ignoring political reality – he is expected to campaign for Osinbajo in the North.

 

At this moment in the North, Tinubu on his own cannot win a head-to-head with a Northerner. His base is the South West; even with that, Rotimi Akeredolu rebuffed his influence in Ondo in 2017 and still won the governorship.

 

Down the River Niger, eight out of the 11 states in the South East and South South are solidly in the PDP column.

 

In this setting, therefore, Tinubu is better off remaining a kingmaker. Instead of taking a high risk only for him to lose.

 

Obi’s pedigree and prospects

 

Obi is a technocrat who supports restructuring Nigeria for all citizens and regions to realise their full potential for a better country.

 

He was Anambra Governor for eight years, from 2006 to 2014, during which he yanked off the state from the quagmire of political godfatherism and transformed it with social projects still verifiable.

 

Obi, a humble man who honed his management skills in the private sector, is one of the best Governors  Nigeria has produced in the past two decades.

 

1. a) He has no known scandal, personal or public, and no individual or state institution has made any fraud allegation against him.

 

1. b) He left over N75 billion in the treasury for his successor, Willie Obiano, who is scaling up the Obi legacy.

 

1. c) Far sighted governance in Anambra that began with Obi in 2006 is turning it into the Lagos of the South East.

 

1. d) While in office, he queued up and personally checked himself into public airlines, unlike his colleagues who travelled by private jets bought with tax payers’ money. His wife, Margaret, did not flaunt herself as First Lady.

 

1. e) Obi converted Anambra guest houses to yield millions of naira in rent into state coffers.

 

Public figures present at his handover of the reins to Obiano in Awka on March 17, 2014 included former Commonwealth Secretary General, Emeka Anyaoku, and Dangote.

 

“Obi is a man of vision, mission, focus, compassion, piety and integrity ….

 

“One of the ways of assessing the performance of governments in Nigeria and indeed across the world is to evaluate what the government has done and is doing with the collective resources of the citizens,’’ Anyaoku said.

 

“I think all of us should increase respect for Peter Obi,” Dangote added.

 

“I am really very proud of him, particularly because he was coming from the private sector. It is not easy to run business in Nigeria; it is very difficult, but what he has done is even more difficult than running a business.

 

“Even people from Yobe know that governing Anambra is not an easy task. Today, I don’t really think there is any state that has N7 billion in savings ….

 

“I think for anybody to run a state or a country, he needs to follow what you have actually done, because to run a state in Nigeria without having a majority in the House of Assembly is almost impossible, but he did just that.

 

“I have never seen Peter Obi with more than two people following him. This is part of cutting cost.’’

 

A man of integrity like Obi being on the ticket with Atiku would further galvanise the South East to vote PDP, knowing that if Atiku teams up with him to do well in Aso Rock, the zone would be well on course to produce the next President after Atiku.

 

Agenda for President post the Buhari generation

 

It was Junaid Mohammed, a radical Northern academic, who first fired the salvo in 2016 that Buhari is an “economics illiterate”.

 

He had been friends with Buhari for more than 40 years and had campaigned for him zestfully in 2015.

 

“I am absolutely persuaded that Buhari cannot govern this country because he has too many negatives.

 

“A, he is an economics illiterate. B, he does not read. C, he is a very selfish person. D, he is also what you call a nepotist. He believes in nepotism,” Mohammed told TheNiche in an interview published on October 9, 2016.

 

“To govern a country like Nigeria with 180 million people by bringing your own brothers and sisters and nephews and your in-laws into government, when they know nothing in the areas you are appointing them, is nothing but recklessness and is a shameless sense of greed and hypocrisy.”

 

Buhari has neither disputed nor disproved Mohammed’s claims.

 

Three years in the saddle, the talk in the corridors of Aso Rock is that when it comes to the economy, Buhari takes a back seat.

 

His main take is security and anti-corruption.

 

Yet Boko Haram the Islamic jihadist still hunts in the North East, killing troops as well as civilians. Whereas in the South East, Buhari has fought Biafra separatists to the ground; and in the South South, Niger Delta militancy has waned under heavy military bombardment.

 

Buhari’s critics allege he is an Islamic jihadist himself, so he treats Boko Haram with kid gloves while clamping down with brutality on Southern rebels.

 

Selective treatment also taints his anti-graft fight.

 

Plain crooks, thieves, and criminals in the APC are let off scot-free. Those in the PDP are harassed, besieged, and blackmailed by the security agencies. Their safety lies only in jumping ship to the APC.

 

Shehu Sanni, APC Senator for Kaduna, described Abuja’s anti-corruption battle as applying deodorants in cases involving Buhari’s camp and applying insecticides in cases involving others.

 

In a nutshell, Buhari is not competent to run the economy, and even in matters of his interest – security and corruption – he lacks results. Yet he disdains technocrats who would help him perform.

 

Atiku and anyone else in that their orbit may surround themselves with competent hands in the Villa, but appointees can only go as far as the vision the President himself has for the country.

 

The agenda for Nigeria’s genuine leadership, therefore, has to look beyond the current political front runners to deliver on the things Buhari has not done well and the things not even on his plate.

 

In addition to the security and anti-corruption template, below are 10 of the priorities the President after the Buhari and Atiku generation should focus on:

 

1. Stable power supply

 

Human society has come to depend on stable electricity for        anything. Nigeria knows this but does nothing about it. The huge sums sunk into power in the past two decades alone have no tangible effect.

 

The future of power supply stability lies in solar energy. It is clean and renewable, and would be cheaper in the long run because God makes the sun free at source, global, and inexhaustible, as long as this present earth remains (Genesis 1:16-18; 8:22; 2 Peter 3:10-13).

 

The technology is still being developed and the best approach at the moment is to supply solar power separately to communities. The capacity has not grown to cover large swathes of a country from one distribution point.

 

Whether Nigeria continues with fossil fuel in the interim or taps into solar power straightaway, the President has to marshal all available men and materials for reliable electricity.

 

The use of private power generators is costly to individuals and to businesses and still does not guarantee supply 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

 

2. Population control

 

A country cannot develop without population education to ensure population control.

 

Population growth left unchecked outstrips social provision. Resources for education, health, housing, law enforcement, employment, et cetera become inadequate for a good quality of life for all citizens.

 

Northern Nigeria is a case study. Families there breed with little thought for the welfare of children, whom they usually dump on the street to beg bread. A high proportion of the population is illiterate, and is ravaged by unimaginable physical disabilities and diseases.

 

So it is everywhere in the world. The larger the number of children in a family, the leaner its resources to provide for them effectively, and the greater the lack of moral upbringing, prevalence of illiteracy and poverty, disease and disability.

 

The population of India is 1.3 billion. Among it are over 300 million children who do not attend school and are street beggars. In contrast, the US with a population of 327 million leads the world through education, science, technology, and creativity in all human spheres.

 

Lagos runs a media campaign on family planning. The President can adapt that into a national blueprint on population education.

 

Family planning should not include abortion or artificial contraception of any kind.

 

In the eyes of God

 

1. a) There is part-life in the male sperm and part-life in the female egg.

 

1. b) Human life on earth begins in full at conception in the womb (Psalm 139:15-16; Jeremiah 1:5).

 

1. c) Killing off the sperm or egg or foetus by any means is abortion, murder (Genesis 38:8-10).

 

“Thou shalt not kill” (Exodus 20:13 KJV).

 

Murder leads to hell (1 John 3:15; Revelation 21:8).

 

God’s judgment for the sin of murder and for the sin of abortion is the same for the sin of all artificial contraceptive methods – such as condom, contraceptive pill, injection, withdrawal method, et cetera (Genesis 38:8-10).

 

Population education should urge each family to limit children to a number it can effectively provide for in terms of the home environment, love, quality time, quality care, health, and education.

 

God created in every woman a natural family planning which does not require medical interference. There are certain times in a month a woman will not get pregnant when her husband meets her.

 

Both the menstrual cycle and the natural ‘safe period’ vary among women. But, generally, a woman with a 28-day cycle with five days of menstrual flow is unlikely to get pregnant for about 14 days in the cycle.

 

Generally, in a normal 28-day menstrual cycle, the husband and wife can have as much sex as they want for 14 days (spread between the period before and after ovulation) then avoid sex and avoid pregnancy for 14 days (menstruation days plus the ‘unsafe period’ around ovulation).

 

This is part of what a population control campaign should explain nationwide.

 

3. Diversify the economy

 

Nigeria has depended mainly on oil receipts since the 1970s. Energy consumption is shifting away from fossil fuel. The international oil market is volatile. Cheap petrol dollar encourages mental laziness to kill off creativity.

 

These are just some of the reasons urgent measures should be taken to diversify the economy – or else oil bursts, Nigeria goes bankrupt.

 

One of the first areas to look into is modern agriculture. India, a fellow developing economy, is self-sufficient in food production and has surplus for export.

 

There is abundant fertile land in Nigeria ready to be cultivated for food consumption and for cash crops. Once there is food sufficiency, the rest is easy.

 

To earn hard currency, India exports tea; Thailand rice; Kenya flower; South Africa apple; Cote d’Ivoire cocoa; Ghana cocoa and garri (cassava flour); Jamaica yam, orange, coconut, and pineapple – among other farm produce.

 

The European Union (EU) bans export of garri from Nigeria because it fails international health standards. For example, the way most regions in this country produce garri allows body sweat to drop into it. Dust also gathers into it when displayed for sale on roadsides.

 

There are more than seven million Nigerians in the Diaspora. The largest number is in the US, followed by those in the UK. These are supposed to be the first target of food exports from their native country who go on to advertise the food items to other nationals.

 

But even Nigerians in the UK prefer Ghanaian garri for its high quality.

 

The fruit juice sector in Nigeria, dominated by Chivita, is a multi-million naira market. The land still has plenty mango, apple, guava, carrot, pineapple, cherry, et cetera to be processed into juice for local consumption and for export.

 

Many Nigerians are not aware that apple grows organically in the country and is sweeter and more nutritious than the genetically modified (GM) variety imported from South Africa, which Lagosians relish.

 

Nigeria has a glorious background in agricultural exports.

 

Up to the 1960s, its foreign exchange came mainly from groundnut, kolanut, cocoa, and palm oil. These days, 95 per cent of it comes from crude oil.

 

The country still exports some of those historical and other agricultural produce, but only in minimal quantity. Farmlands have lain fallow long enough for greater output, and await the return of modern and better farmers.

 

The President, knowing that even the EU provides support for farmers, must spearhead the turnaround of agriculture with a policy that effectively addresses all the shortcomings.

 

The policy has to support both small and large scale farmers with education in better farming methods, as well as with loans, seedlings, fertiliser and other farm inputs, motorable rural roads, easy evacuation of produce, storage facilities, et cetera.

 

These will ensure quality farm produce.

 

Then you have a good pitch for farm exports.

 

4. Justice administration

 

A country that has no regard for the administration of justice cannot prosper. The mess in the Nigerian police and judiciary has to be cleaned up to enforce the law.

 

In the 1960s, the British police were dominated by bad eggs who perverted justice for filthy lucre and other gratifications. The government, instead of just moaning about it, initiated reforms that sanitised the system.

 

Today, the British police are one of the best in the world.

 

If the President is determined to have a good judiciary, he can also achieve that. First, he leaves above board. Then it becomes easy for him to jail corrupt judges and other public officials ruining the country.

 

Once the big shots are being sent to prison for breaking the law, everyone else across the country will sit up and obey the law. Or they, too, will be tried in court and sent to the gulag.

 

5. Restructure Nigeria

 

The kernel of this agitation is that the current national configuration takes resources from a productive state and gives it to an idle state.

 

Each of the old regions in the North, East, and West harnessed its resources and developed according to its ability. No one took money from the North to provide for the East, and vice versa. Ditto the West.

 

Robbing one to pay another is a recipe for perpetual underdevelopment. It shuns hard work, discourages industry.

 

A state like Ekiti with only three million population owes public workers nine months’ salary. It depends mainly on federal handout to keep going.

 

Landlocked Ekiti hardly produces anything with a big market to make money. Nor does it attract producers. Kwara is also like that. Likewise several other states.

 

Restructuring means each state governs itself with minimal involvement of Abuja, and determines how to harness and deploy its resources – at its own pace. It keeps a large chunk of what it makes and gives only a part to Abuja to run the federal administration.

 

States will not stand on their own feet until cheap oil funds from other states dwindle. Or dry up completely.

 

6. Reduce power at the centre

 

Restructuring also means devolving more power to states to remove the domineering muscle of the centre. Every state currently looks up to Abuja for nearly everything.

 

The centre merely presides over the sharing of revenue collected mainly from the nine oil-producing states in the South. Yet it exercises enormous power and influence over all states and makes laws to consolidate that power.

 

The centre, the periphery, and the entire country are all worse for this arrangement in terms of development.

 

7. Discourage tribalism and ethnicity

 

The President should lead by example by appointing men and women on merit. Even when zoning and quota are applied, competence must be the yardstick.

 

No country develops which sacrifices competence for mere ethnicity and a sense of entitlement.

 

In past years, vice chancellors in federal universities North and South were appointed only on the strength of their scholarship. In the 1970s, Kwaku Adadevoh, a Ghanaian, was Vice Chancellor of the University of Lagos.

 

But tribalism and ethnicity have now eaten so deep into the national psyche that mainly indigenes of federal university locations are appointed the Vice Chancellors, without regard for candidates from elsewhere in the country who are better qualified.

 

This is just one example of how ‘state of origin’ mindset is a stumbling block to national cohesion and growth.

 

On paper, the Constitution allows any Nigerian to be elected or appointed in any part of the country, once he or she qualifies for the post. In reality, geopolitics and tribal sentiments largely trump that provision all over the country. Lagos is the only exception.

 

What is needed is persuasion through good example.

 

The President has to demonstrate a merit system in his appointments and interactions in Abuja and persuade Governors in state capitals to do so.

 

Those steps taken at the top will chip away at the wall of tribalism and help reorientate the general population to see that quality life is not based on ethnic affinity but on the integrity of each individual.

 

8. Technological growth

 

Start somewhere. Start small with what you have. Then expand.

 

Nigerians, like citizens of other countries, embrace technology because it is more efficient in the production and distribution of goods and services, as well as in personal dealings.

 

Computer Village in Lagos generates N1.5 billion in 10,500 daily transactions carried out by 25,000 traders in 3,500 shops, according to Ahmed Ojikutu, President of Computer and Allied Product Dealers Association of Nigeria (CAPDAN).

 

“Computer Village generates about N1.5 billion on a daily basis from both offline and online business transactions.

 

“Going by the kind of transactions and money that change hands at the Computer Village, it can be described as a hub of technology-based activities from the level of repairs, refurbishment and software-related activities,” he explained.

 

“The Lagos State government has given us a lot of support, but we need the government to do more because real time technology would be the only driving force that can take Nigeria to the next level of development.’’

 

Ojikutu said the market for new phones in Nigeria is vibrant at 95 per cent.

 

“New phones are what people buy majorly, except for some Nigerians who, due to desire for phones that are in vogue and have all the features, will buy used ones at a lesser price.

 

“What is hindering the production of phones in Nigeria is knowledge. We need to move from knowing how to use a mobile phone to building a panel.

 

“The moment we start training the younger ones on how to place a micro-chip on a board and how to write a programme to adding a screen and lead, automatically we have started developing ways to build a phone.

 

“As we intensify efforts towards training our younger ones on ways to build phones, we hope to develop quality hardware gurus.”

 

The Lagos State government installed a high speed internet broadband to back up the tech hub in what is gradually becoming Nigeria’s Silicon Valley in Onike-Yaba.

 

Andela, one of the tech firms in the hub, trains Nigerian computer graduates in coding, and they master it to earn foreign exchange in Lagos by writing programmes for client companies in Europe and America.

 

The President can help expand the Lagos hub or borrow its idea to assist the private sector to create tech clusters in other parts of the country, such as Kano, Enugu, Aba, Calabar, and Port Harcourt.

 

Innoson Motors and ANAMCO, the two indigenous players in the auto industry, also need patronage from Abuja.

 

The industry will boom, and local expertise will grow, if the President directs that most of the vehicles used by Aso Rock and by ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) are made in Nigeria.

 

From active tech startups and a growing auto industry, you can expand into other areas of technology.

 

9. Emphasise STEM subjects in schools

 

The backbone of hi-tech anywhere is quality teaching of STEM subjects in schools.

 

The proofs for that include the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and India.

 

The understanding and application of STEM subjects is not limited to any region of the world. It depends on talent as well as on orientation – beginning at home from childhood and extending to kindergarten, elementary, secondary, and tertiary education.

 

In this field, Nigeria has produced many renowned names, such as Ayodele Awojobi and Chike Obi.

 

One of the best brains in computer science in the US is Philip Emeagwali, a Nigerian. He also has two master’s degrees in applied mathematics and a master’s in ocean and marine engineering.

 

He obtained all his degrees from American universities after serving in the Biafran army at the age of 13 during the Nigerian civil war.

 

Bill Clinton as US President visited Nigeria in August 2000 and cited Emeagwali’s achievements in computer science in a speech. He said it is an example of what Nigerians could achieve when given the opportunity.

 

The recipe for successful teaching and application of STEM subjects includes full equipment of schools, incentives for qualified teachers, a conducive learning environment for and encouragement of students, and opportunity for their internship in related fields.

 

Academic STEM study also has to be linked to practical requirements in industry, instead of acquisition of mere paper qualification.

 

10. Northern children must go to school

 

There is free education in Nigeria up to the end of junior secondary school (JSS III). Regardless, illiterate and primitive Northern cattle herders roam the country to invade and kill farm owners to grab pasture for animals.

 

You can be literate and still be a herdsman. Cattle rearers elsewhere are educated and do not kill humans to preserve the life of beast.

 

In many other parts of the world, cattle farmers ride on horses to avoid the pain and the fatigue of walking. Illiterate and crude Fulani herdsmen walk with their flock all the way from Mali to Sokoto in Nigeria’s North West, traverse Jos in the North Central, and down Enugu in the South East.

 

In their trail, with impunity, they overrun and decimate farms and murder farmers. They make the return trip, then come again.

 

Animal farming is a lucrative business in New Zealand. And from there to Australia, Denmark, to France, Canada, to the US, and to Brazil and Argentina, livestock breeders are educated and well off.

 

Fulani herdsmen, all of whom are illiterate, keep cattle as lifelong property and as a status symbol in their own society. They sell a head of cattle only once in a while to acquire some personal needs or to do a ceremony, like wedding.

 

They commit cruel murder to preserve cattle.

 

Yet there is a shortage of meat in Nigeria, a country whose population of 180 million is enough to make any reasonable hardworking person genuinely rich through livestock farming.

 

Some butchers in Lagos have to cross the border at Seme daily to import beef from Benin Republic to bridge the gap in the local market. They pay for it in foreign exchange.

 

Illiterate Northern teenagers desert the poor region to scrape a living in the better South.

 

They are street beggars, motorcycle taxi operators, garbage collectors, water vendors, mobile tailors and mobile shoe menders, road diggers – and do other menial gigs in the informal economy. Many are in Lagos.

 

Their lot would be better if they were educated.

 

But Northern oligarchs deliberately keep the poor in their place to lord it over them. While they send their own children to school to receive Western education they foster the falsehood among the down trodden that Western education is evil, a lie also peddled by Boko Haram Islamists.

 

In Lagos in the South, a middle class mother who has to resume work from maternity leave sends her three-month-old child to a creche, taught in English. The child progresses to kindergarten and to elementary and secondary school. All in private education, paid for by the parents.

 

In contrast, from Maiduguri to Birnin-Kebbi in the North, the typical parent and child both scoff at Western education in favour of minimal Islamic education, taught in Arabic, which cuts them off from the Nigerian mainstream.

 

The child ends up an illiterate in English, the national language, and unemployable.

 

Many children in the North do not attend even Islamic school. Those who do hardly speak nor write in Arabic. Nor can they read nor write in Hausa, the regional language.

 

Saudi Arabia, the bastion of Islam, gives its citizens Western education.

 

In Nigeria, some among the Northern elite would also like to see all children in the region receive Western education.

 

The President should co-opt them as well as non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to study the problem, devise a solution that reorientates the people, and encourages both the boy child and the girl child to go to school.

 

Illiteracy breeds poverty. And it is the master of backwardness in everything.