Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is embattled. He knows it, even as he pretends that all is well.
For the first time since he was nominated to head the electoral body on June 8, 2010 by President Jonathan Goodluck, there is a strident campaign for his sack. Some of those calling for his head were the same people who hailed him as a messiah, only yesterday. And it is not difficult to see why.
When he was appointed in 2010 to superintend the 2011 polls, his job was clearly cut out and he acted the script perfectly well.
Despite the fact that some states in the South East and South South posted election figures that were higher than the number of registered voters in the presidential poll, the election of Jonathan was hailed as free and fair. Jega’s ascendancy was likened to the Biblical Daniel coming to judgement.
But as we enter another silly season of politics, the dynamics have changed fundamentally and Jega’s every action is coming under very intense scrutiny.
With the increasing polarisation of the country along the very frightening fault lines of religion and ethnicity, Nigerian politicians who know that rigging election has gone beyond the crude forms of ballot stuffing and snatching to more sophisticated forms are on the alert.
So, when the INEC recently approved the creation of additional 30,027 polling units to the existing 119,973 that brought the total number to 150,000, red flags instantly went up.
Of course, in creating new polling units, the INEC leaned on the 2010 Electoral Act, which stipulates that no polling unit should have more than 500 voters.
Jega said the Commission was “driven by our collective aspirations as Nigerians to reform and improve upon the electoral process for free, fair, peaceful and credible elections in 2015 and beyond” in creating the new polling units.
The “need factor”, more than political sentiments, informed the patterns of distribution of the polling units, he said, adding, “The Commission has not been unmindful of the political nature of the exercise; and that is why it took the decision that (i) no state will lose any polling units from its stock of existing units, no matter the statistical outlook when voter population is exaggerated into units of 500 persons; and (ii) every state will get some additional polling units from 15 per cent of the total being newly created on the basis of ‘equality principle’ regardless of the number of polling units already existing in each state in comparison to the voter population.”
But the devil, as they say, is in the details. And it is the details that have led to the uproar.
According to the proposal, the three zones in the North will have about 21,000 units, which is 70 per cent of the new units, the three zones in the South will get about 8,000.
The South West will get 4,160; South South 3,087; and South East 1,167 (a total 8,414). The North West will have 7,906; North East 5,291; and the North Central 6,318 (a total 21,615). The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is allocated 1,120.
While all states in the North will get more polling units after the initial 121 evenly distributed, some in the South, like Anambra, Bayelsa, Enugu, Ekiti and Osun will have none.
Lagos is allocated 2,870 units, bringing to 11,565 the polling units that will serve its 5,426,391 registered voters. Kano, with 4,751,818 registered voters, will have additional 2,053 units, bringing its total to 9,809.
Kaduna, with 3,743,815 registered voters, will get new 2,878 polling units, making a total 7,878. Bayelsa, which has the lowest number of registered voters (590,679), will only get the initial 121 polling units allocated to every state, bringing its total to 1,925. Imo will have the least with 42.
Jega said at a press conference in Abuja on Wednesday, September 10, that, “For the avoidance of doubt, the Commission has not yet created the additional polling units, it has simply approved the framework and guidelines to facilitate the creation of these additional polling units by Resident Electoral Commissioners and the state offices of INEC.”
He insisted that the plan is “sincere and well-intentioned.”
But he may well be talking to the marines as his critics are unrelenting. The Southern Nigeria Peoples Assembly (SNPA) has demanded his sack for allegedly manipulating polling units to give advantage to the North, calling the move a “decrepit mission.”
On September 10, SNPA leaders (Edwin Clark, former Vice President, Alex Ekwueme, and Senator Femi Okurounmu), criticised Jega harshly, saying, “May we hastily remind him that he has lost his credibility, if there was indeed any and he has lost the trust, confidence and respect of Nigerians.”
The group said Jega had overstayed his welcome as INEC boss, having shown tendencies for “ethnic bigotry, partisan parochialism and primordial chauvinism.
“Jega decided not to equilibrate but to marginalise the entire Southern Nigeria by arbitrarily and capriciously allocating 21,615 polling units to the North, as against 8,412 polling units to Southern Nigeria.
“Creating a phantom 30,000 polling units and whimsically allocating them to favour the North is the height of insult to the people of Southern Nigeria.”
A senior official of the INEC who spoke to me last week said Jega is guilty as charged.
The man said: “What Jega is doing is a very brilliant move. It is a well calculated strategy and it is almost a done deal. Power is gradually slipping out of Jonathan’s hands and he is helpless.
“What is even more cynical is that the Commission is strategically depopulating the South East and South South through the so-called cleaning of the voter register.
“Democracy is a game of numbers and Jega is tactically ensuring that the balance of power is with the North as we go into the 2015 polls.”
I don’t want to believe that Jega is guilty as charged. But I find it quite instructive that those up in arms are the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and those sympathetic to Jonathan’s 2015 presidential ambition.
Most, if not all of them, are from the South. The leadership of the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), is not complaining. Even Northern leaders who objected when the former National Population Commission Chairman, Eze Festus Odimegwu, raised the alarm that census figures have always been doctored are quiet.
In fact, there is a reason to believe that they are very comfortable with the plan by the INEC. The presidential candidate of the APC is likely to emerge from the North.
My take is that Jega is not levelling up with Nigerians in his new gambit. I may be wrong.
