By Emeka Alex Duru
With the loss of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the November 16 governorship election in Kogi and Bayelsa, the uncertain future of the party may have assumed more frightening dimensions. The election in Bayelsa was to pick a successor to Governor Seriake Dickson, who is in the last lap of his second term. The exercise in Kogi involved the governor, Yahaya Bello, who was angling for a second term. In both instances, the PDP lost to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The PDP candidate in Bayelsa, Senator Duoye Diri lost to the APC flag bearer, David Lyon. In Kogi, the governor who ran on the platform of the APC was re-elected at the expense of Musa Wada, the PDP candidate.
The loss of the two states by the PDP came as surprise to many. For Kogi, given the poor performance profile of the governor in his first term, the expectation in some quarters was that the PDP would cash in on the low public impression to pull the rug off his feet. That, however did not happen. It is also not certain if the party will have upper hand in the inconclusive election for Kogi West Senatorial District between its candidate, Dino Melaye and the APC candidate, Smart Adeyemi. Whatever may come out of the exercise may not cause any upset compared with the loss of the governorship slot in the state.That however pales to nothing compared to the loss of Bayelsa and what it holds for the PDP in the days ahead.
Bayelsa as heart and soul of PDP
Bayelsa is seen as the heart and soul of the PDP, among analysts. Aside being among the few states where the party had held fort since the last 20 years of the commencement of the current dispensation, it is one that had almost turned in all its electoral positions from the councillorship through the legislature to the governorship to the party. Except by occasional defections, most major elective positions in Bayelsa were clinched by the PDP. In similar vein, major political actors in the state are also members of the party or sympathetic to it. For instance, the former President, Goodluck Jonathan, is from the state.
Also, in contrast to other states where there had been instances of parallel structures in the party, the PDP in Bayelsa had always been intact as one family. In the last Presidential election, the state gave encouraging support to the party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar. It repeated same in the state election, where the party consolidated its hold on the House of Assembly. It was thus understandable that many saw the state as a veritable stronghold of the party.
The trouble with PDP
But with the shocking loss of the state to APC on Saturday, there have been serious fears on how the PDP would overcome the setback and remain relevant in the days ahead. This is especially given the tendency of the party not easily picking itself after a setback. In 2015 when the PDP suffered its major loss to the APC, the party went through crises that almost brought it under. The first in the series was the resignation of its national chairman, Adamu Mu’azu. That left the flanks open for a huge gulf in the party leading to the emergence of two factions. On one hand was the camp led by senator Alli Modu Sheriff, former Borno State governor, who insisted on completing the turn of the North East chairmanship which the resignation of Mu’azu had robbed the zone. On account of the breezy style with which Sheriff assumed office and his roots with the All Nigerian People Party (ANPP), one of the parties that coalesced into APC, many traditional PDP chieftains were not comfortable with him. These members of the party teamed up with the National Committee leadership of the party headed by Ahmed Makarfi, former Kaduna State governor. The crisis on the authentic leadership of the party lingered till it was eventually settled by the Supreme Court in favour of the Makarfi camp in the build up to the 2019 elections.
Danger not averted
Even the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as its flag bearer in the election, did not fully cement the crack in PDP, as some members who had enthroned Sheriff appeared uncomfortable with the former Vice President. Nyesom Wike, Rivers State governor, all through the election, did not hide his preference for Aminu Tambuwal, his Sokoto State counterpart, in place of Atiku. In the South East, the choice of former Anambra governor, Peter Obi as Atiku’s running mate, did not go down well with some party chieftains. The crisis of confidence trailed the party into the February presidential election in which Atiku lost to President Muhammadu Buhari.
In the March governorship election, the party made some gains in winning Oyo, Sokoto, Adamawa, Benue, Imo, Zamfara and Rivers. Zamfara and Rivers were gained by the party through court pronouncements that stated that APC had no candidates in both states.
The expectation was that a win in Bayelsa would consolidate the rising fortunes of the party. But the outcome seems to have put the party in disarray. Almost a week after the shocking development, PDP is yet to find its voice on how it was caught flat-footed in its traditional enclave. Aside allegations of poll manipulation by the electoral bodies and insinuations of compromise by some key members of the party in the state, PDP has not come up with a comprehensive position on how it intends to rise from the ashes of the Bayelsa fiasco.
Crises loom
There are rather suspicions of the party relapsing to more crises in the days ahead. There are for instance, reports of the national chairman, Uche Secondus being under intense pressure to vacate office over alleged constitutional breaches, misappropriation of funds and failure to lead the party to victory in the 2015 and 2019 general elections. Secondus has also allegedly failed to call for major meetings of the various organs of the party including the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting which is the second highest decision-making organ of the party. Though his Special Adviser on Media, Ike Abonyi, has dismissed the allegations as “baseless and unsubstantiated”, past incidences of impasse in the party were known to have commenced with such allegations that had on the face value, appeared feeble. Dr Nwankwo Ugoala, a political scientist and public opinion analyst, blames the imminent crisis in PDP on what he calls “post-engagement trauma”, which he says, comes with awful outings by individuals and groups who did not put their house in order before going into a major contest. PDP, according to him, is not used to shock, hence when it encounters any, it is easily destabilized. This informs the fear many have on the future of the party with the loss of Bayelsa.
APC eyes the East
For the APC, the feat in Bayelsa means more than winning a governorship contest. It is rather a boost to an agenda it had nursed on barging into the South East. The party has not made pretensions of having a foothold in the East, despite the heavy resentment of the voters in the region. But emboldened by its success in Bayelsa, APC may this time around, renew its quest for the East, starting from the 2021 governorship poll in Anambra. With the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the state consistently losing its goodwill from the people on account of leadership rascality, Anambra is increasingly presenting a sure bet for APC. How the PDP in Anambra, which has hardly agreed among itself on virtually every issue, will provide a formidable challenge to the surge from APC, especially in the face of allegations of romance between the governor, Willie Obiano and President Buhari, will be seen with time.
