2027: Before Nigeria is plunged into needless bloodshed – Nigeria is at a political crossroads. On April 30, 2026, I pointed out here that unlike former President Goodluck Jonathan who famously said his political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian, those on the saddle today have left no one in doubt that their political ambitions, if need be, may well be worth the blood of a million Nigerians. That is what the ‘Tinubu is not Jonathan,’ mantra is all about – an ominous dog whistle. Ethnic baiting, which the president actively promotes, is an ill wind that blows nobody any good. One hopes that Tinubu’s desperation for a second term with or without the people’s consent does not plunge Nigeria into needless bloodshed.
An Instagram cartoon post from chekwubechukwupaulinus titled, “Nightmare of Nigerian Politics” depicting Peter Obi in chains
By Ikechukwu Amaechi
To say that former Anambra State governor, Mr Peter Obi, has become a nightmare to sundry political merchants in Nigeria is to understate the political reality of this time. By proving to be an unstoppable force that disrupts their comfort, he has become an immitigable source of fear for them, even when they claim otherwise. In his simplicity, he has emerged a mega force in Nigeria’s shifting political landscape, just by overcoming hesitation and acting decisively.
But that came at a cost. He is the bête noire of the political class, hated by those who see him as their nemesis – a hatred borne out of fear, and panic triggered by the sudden realisation that the man they thought was politically caged, had beaten them to their own nefarious game.
After his phenomenal performance in the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party, a political party he joined barely six months to the polls, he was marked as an existential threat to the political future of those who lost the election, but were declared winners by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
They learnt the hard way. How could a man dismissed beforehand as a political parvenu, pull off such an incredible political upset?
So, for their own survival, they had to contain the man they publicly dismiss as a social media phenomenon but dread in their private, quiet moments of reflection. All manner of vitriol was hauled at him in a desperate bid to sully his image. When that failed, some All Progressives Congress (APC) governors declared him a persona-non-grata in their states. What many Nigerians didn’t know, however, was that some public institutions, including universities, afraid of sanctions, also barred him from visiting.
But like the proverbial cat with nine lives, Obi’s popularity soared rather than diminish. Frightened, his traducers concluded that the only way to forestall the 2023 electoral shellacking he orchestrated was to ensure his exclusion from the 2027 presidential election by hook or by crook. First, they factionalised the Labour Party, his springboard in 2023, entangling it in dubious legal disputes. When he defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the plots got thicker and more cynical.
With the Electoral Act 2026 which tightened party membership and candidate nomination rules in a way that makes late defections difficult, if not impossible, for aspirants, and insufferable court cases, Obi’s detractors thought that they had finally cornered him. In the unlikely case that he wins the ADC presidential primaries, the courts will be used to delegitimise the Senator David Mark-led executive of the party and put paid to all political aspirations. But if former Vice President Atiku Abubakar wins as it was programmed since ADC, to all intents and purposes, is his Special Purpose Entity (SPE), then it becomes impossible for Obi to switch parties thereafter and still be on the ballot.
Section 77 of the Electoral Act redesigned how political parties document their membership. Not only did the Act transform what was previously a general register requirement into a structured, digital, identity-based database, it also shortened the submission timeline of the register by political parties to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to 21 days before primaries. Any party that fails to submit a compliant register within the prescribed time cannot field a candidate.
But those who thought they had finally nailed Obi to the cross of political perdition didn’t reckon that like Eneke the bird, in popular Igbo folklore, which says that since men have learned to shoot without missing, he has learned to fly without perching, Obi has mastered the supreme art of not only adapting to new challenges but also evolving strategies for survival in the face of orchestrated dangers.
Before the door could be shut permanently, he defected to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and all hell broke loose. Chieftains of the President Bola Tinubu-led government ran berserk, literally, throwing the kitchen sink at him. There is hardly any government official that has not taken potshots at Obi in the last one month. Loyalty to the Tinubu political hegemony is now measured in terms of how virulently one insults Obi. The same measure applies to APC officials. Interestingly, opposition leaders have joined in the vilification spree. Atiku’s supporters are as vitriolic as Tinubu’s hangers-on.
Truth be told, all pretensions to the contrary notwithstanding, the APC-led government is panicking, knowing full well that in a free and fair election, Tinubu will be condemned to a one-term presidency. An Obi-Kwankwaso ticket will be too tough a challenge. The government is grossly lacking in self-confidence. That is why the president wants a coronation, not an election, not minding that he is in total control of not only the levers of power but every institution that will superintend the 2027 elections, including INEC, an unfathomable war chest, and a judiciary that has no qualms bending the arc of justice to the will of Aso Rock in total disregard of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s admonition that: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”
Having tried every trick in the book to stop Obi’s momentum to no avail, Tinubu and his government have become desperate and a desperate man is a dangerous man. Now that the gloves are off, and both government officials and APC apparatchiks seem to have abandoned all politeness, restraint and rules, all well-meaning Nigerians must, in one voice, warn that nothing must happen to Peter Obi that compromises his physical wellbeing. He has committed no crime by aspiring to be president of his country. Let Nigerians decide who governs them. That is a fundamental dictate of democracy.
But even at that, inasmuch as I appreciate the dangers Obi faces in a country where previous political assassinations, including that of a sitting Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, remain unresolved several years after, I am not as worried about him as I am about innocent Nigerians who are being deliberately set up for possible post-election violence. Obi knows how high the stakes are and has the capacity to withstand the heat in the political kitchen. So far, his resilience is an indication that he is way smarter than most people give him credit, which explains why he is always one step ahead of his enemies.
I am worried for the people because I foresee violence in 2027. Three messages in the past week accentuated my fear, hence this article. First, yesterday, I chanced upon a Facebook post by one Paul Achalla, attributed to Akin Fapunda, said to be a chieftain of Afenifere. It read: “If Peter Obi or Igbos connive with northerners to take power from Tinubu, a southern president, there will be an ethnic tension like that of Rwanda, etc.” The threat of a Rwanda-type genocide against the Igbos, a people that had suffered waves of pogrom in their own country in the past, is a dangerous rhetoric and inexcusable. Had it been made by an Igbo, the DSS would have been on the prowl by now.
Suffice it to say that it speaks eloquently to the hypocrisy that is Nigeria’s bane. There was no issue when Tinubu, a Yoruba, and southerner, connived with northerners in 2015 to take power from Jonathan, an Ijaw, and a bona fide southerner. Then, it was political sagacity, evidence of Tinubu’s genius. But it will be an issue if the same treatment is meted to Tinubu in 2027.
Second, on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, I received a WhatSapp message from one Ikenna Asomba, a self-acclaimed political scientist and a rabid Atiku apologist, who lives in Illinois, USA. A visceral antagonist of Peter Obi, he wrote: “God forbid bad things for our people in Naija. If Bola (Tinubu) gets a second term, the North will never ever trust Ndigbo again for alliance because of what Peter Obi did to their kinsman in 2023 and 2027. They would rather form alliance with the South West and South South in 2031 and going forward. Ndigbo will remain in political wilderness for another 43 years plus, like we have been since 1983.”
So, if Tinubu loses the 2027 presidential election and it doesn’t matter who wins, Ndigbo will be held responsible and if Atiku loses, again, it doesn’t matter who wins, Ndigbo will be liable.
Third, in his last week’s article titled, “Who is after Obi, Kwankwaso again?” an accomplished Nigerian journalist and celebrated columnist wrote about Kwankwaso: “Just like he did in 2023 when he used the NNPP to mobilise Kano votes for his surrogate governor, his gambit this time is to use Obi to mobilise Igbo votes in Kano to secure his base. Better a king in Kano than a spare tyre in Abuja.”
This is a dangerous rhetoric considering what happened in Lagos in 2023 when Tinubu lost the State and Ndigbo were blamed. The peace-loving Igbos who are contributing their quota to the development of Kano are being set up for violence. Kwankwaso is a political institution in Kano, who does not need the help of Ndigbo to strive.
Nigeria is at a political crossroads. On April 30, 2026, I pointed out here that unlike former President Goodluck Jonathan who famously said his political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian, those on the saddle today have left no one in doubt that their political ambitions, if need be, may well be worth the blood of a million Nigerians. That is what the ‘Tinubu is not Jonathan,’ mantra is all about – an ominous dog whistle.
Ethnic baiting, which the president actively promotes, is an ill wind that blows nobody any good. One hopes that Tinubu’s desperation for a second term with or without the people’s consent does not plunge Nigeria into needless bloodshed.
