The hype and vibrations over the first governorship election to be conducted since the advent of a new administration will reach a crescendo today when voters in Kogi State go to the polls to choose a governor.
The campaigns by the major political parties practically reached every village and town in Kogi as the state’s major political contenders swamped the nooks and crannies of the Confluence State.
The contenders
Though there are over 20 contenders on paper, political pundits have narrowed the contest down to four major contestants. Barring any last minute miracle, it is expected that one of the four candidates would emerge as governor of the state come November 21.
Idris Ichala Wada
The incumbent governor of Kogi State has strongly jumped to the fore as bookmakers’ favourite to clinch a second term in office. His supporters see him as a humble leader, who is brilliant, meticulous, shrewd and a great team player.
Agricultural and tourism sectors
He has been able to attract a number of investments into the agricultural and tourism sectors of the economy, as well as follow his transformation blueprint in repositioning the state.
Idris Wada has left a big mark in the area of youth empowerment through the YAD4KOGI initiative, a situation which has given him a solid support base among the youth across the state. His landmark achievements include the construction of the magnificent Kogi House in Abuja, the reconstruction of Kogi Hotels, Lokoja, establishment of Kogi State University Teaching Hospital, Anyigba and the ongoing world-class Diagnostic Centre in Lokoja.
Wada, a trained pilot found himself in politics as a result of what he called, “his passion for service”.
Abubakar Audu
The Ogbonicha Prince is referred to as Gaba Idu by his fanatical followers. He is reputed to be the most experienced of all the contenders, having contested every governorship election in the state since 1992.
Prince Audu has followers across the state, a situation orchestrated by his status as a two-time governor of the state.
Audu is reputed to have put in place a number of infrastructures during his time as governor. Some of his landmark achievements include the Kogi State University, Kogi State Broadcasting Corporation, Kogi State Library and many housing estates. He has however lost four consecutive governorship contests in 2003, 2007, 2008 and 2011.
Audu first governed the state on the platform of the then National Republican Convention between 1992 and 1993 and then between 1999 and 2003.
Emmanuel Enesi Ozigi
Not much was heard of Ozigi as a politician before the current jostling for the governorship of the state. He had been known more before now as an adroit businessman.
Ozigi is flying the ticket of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and he has from nowhere practically put the party as a top contender in the election.
The multimillionaire property czar has won many followers to his brand and is easily reckoned as the third force in the battle.
Philip Salawu
Philip Omeiza Salawu is one of the most competent hands among the major contenders. The highly successful accountant has made his mark in the profession as a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria as well as in the hospitality field.
Salawu was former deputy Governor to Alhaji Ibrahim Idris for eight years. Sources say he had a frosty relationship with his boss towards the end of their tenure.
Despite his position as deputy governor then, he wielded too little influence in the corridors of power. He has however emerged as one of the out-box contenders in the race.
How they stand in the Senatorial Districts
The election is going to be a pull of the Wada/Audu dichotomy. It is expected to be a battle of wits between the two frontline politicians.
Kogi West
Kogi West is made up of seven Local councils which includes: Lokoja, Kabba/Bunu, Ijumu, Mopamuro, Yagba East and Yagba West.
Kogi Local Government Area
Until recent events, analysts had given the Local Government Area to the APC, going by the voting trend of March 2015. However, the recent stoning of Audu at Kotonkarfe has reversed the political fortunes of the party. Kotonkarfe is the largest community in the Local Government Area.
The hostility against Audu is not unconnected with rumour of rifts between Audu and the Ohimege of Kotonkarfe. One of Audu’s strongest supporters, Hon. Saliu Akawu Saliu, contested the Ohimege’s stool with the incumbent.
Traditional upheavals
There is a general belief that the closeness of SAS to Audu may cause some traditional upheavals as residents are nursing the feeling that SAS is still eyeing the Ohimege stool.
Kupa/Eggon will go for PDP
As it stands, the PDP may record an unexpected victory in the Local Government if drastic moves are not made to reassure the traditional ruler of Koto of his safety if Audu wins.
Alhaji Musa Ahmadu, former SSG to Kogi State Government is the man to watch in Kogi Local Government Area. He is one of the PDP leaders in Kogi West.
Lokoja Local Government Area
Lokoja Local Government Area is politically a no-man’s-land. The structure on ground shows the Local Government may be split 50-50 between the PDP and the APC. Senator Tunde Ogbeha, the DG of the PDP Campaign Organization is the strongman of Lokoja Local Government Area.
Kabba/Bunu LGA
Since 1999, the PDP has never lost Kabba/Bunu Local Government Area. Kabba currently boasts of two elected officials who are both PDP. PDP is tipped to win Kabba Township.
However, mainland Bunu such as Iluke, Olle, Illah may be clinched by the APC. PDP is expected to win Kabba/Bunu by a slim margin. The men who will make things happen here are Hon. Tajudeen Yusuf of the House of Reps, Dr. Stephen Olorunfemi, Hon. Yomi Kolawole, House Majority Leader, Pastor Femi Obalemo and Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan on the part of PDP.
On the APC team are the popular Engr. Olusola George Olumoroti and the recently defected Hon. Duro Meseko.
Ijumu LGA
Ijumu Local Government Area is the home of the APC governorship running mate, Hon. James Faleke. He hails from Ekinrin Adde. This may swing the Local Government towards an APC victory. Ijumu may however not be a walkover for the APC with the weight of political juggernauts such as Prince Sola Akanmode, Hon. Abiodun Ojo and Gen. David Jemibewon (rtd), all of the PDP. Senator Dino Melaye is also expected to put his weight behind his party, APC.
Mopamuro LGA
Mopamuro is the home of the Deputy Governor, Arc. Abayomi Awoniyi. The home factor may work heavily in favour of the PDP here. With the likes of Chief Ola Akande, Barrister Sola Ojo, Hon. Eric Fiki, Hon. Folusho Daniel, Hon. Dayo Akande, Hon. Folorunsho Daniyan and Engr Perry Awe pulling the strings for PDP, it is not unlikely the party carries the day. On the other hand, APC also parades heavyweights such as Chief Clarence Olafemi, Hon. Abayomi Obaro and Mr. Henry Abimbola. PDP is favoured to clinch Mopamuro.
Yagba East LGA
The Jide Omokore factor is still a big one in Yagba East. But with the experience and sagacity of the likes of Hon. Salaudeen Ganiyu, the die may be cast for a titanic battle in Yagba East. PDP stalwarts like Hon. Henry Ojuola, Hon. Kayode Obaro, Hon. Hasan Salawu and Hon. Tolorunjuwon Faniyi will be contending with the likes of APC’s Mr. Toyin Akanle, Engr. Kayode Odeyemi and a host of others.
With the Yagba Agenda, PDP has an upper hand. But either of the two parties stands a chance of winning Yagba East.
Yagba West
Yagba West is firmly under the control of Hon. Sunday Karimi, a member of the House of Representatives. He is a PDP leader. His political mettle will be confronted with the political chemistry between his Egbe people and Prince Abubakar Audu.
The direction of Hon. Samuel Aro, another hugely popular leader in the Local Government may decide where the pendulum swings. PDP has a slim edge here.
Kogi Central
Kogi Central is made up of five Local Government Areas of Okene, Okehi, Adavi, Ajaokuta and Ogori/Magongo.
Okene is the most populated LGA in the district. Both the PDP and APC are equally matched in the area. However, the bitterness which trailed the APC governorship primaries, lost by the darling of Ebira politics, Alh. Yahaya Bello, may lead to protest vote against the APC. Audu has also been criticized for relocating the Specialist Hospital at Obangede to his hometown of Ogbonicha.
Despite APC’s showings in the last elections in the Central, analysts are of the opinion that the district is poised to produce the votes that will end the hopes of APC. Many APC leaders in the area are not committed to the APC project.
It is also expected that the politics of clans in Ebiraland may spring some votes towards PPA and Labour Party. The two parties are fielding Ebira candidates.
PDP is expected to win in Okene, Okehi, Adavi and Ogori while APC is tipped to win Ajaokuta.
Alh. Yahaya Karaku, Lt. Gen. Saliu Ibrahim (rtd) and Patrick Adaba are leading the PDP onslaught while Hon. Bello Abdullahi and Hon. Ahmed are matching PDP in the Central.
Kogi East
Kogi East boasts of nine Local Government Areas. They are Omala, Ibaji, Idah, Olamaboro, Ankpa, Ofu, Igalamela/Odolu, Dekina and Bassa.
With the two glitterati coming from Kogi East, the district is expected to be the battle ground. Both Wada and Audu are immensely popular in the East.
Agricultural potential
The influence of Alhaji Ibrahim Idris and Dr. Ahmadu Ali is expected to deliver both Omala and Idah respectively. Audu is expected to record a landslide in his Ofu home. He is also expected to clinch Olamaboro and divide Ankpa 50-50.
The Ibaji people see Wada as a hero for developing the agricultural potential of the area. He is expected to win Ibaji.
Bassa Local Government, the only non-Igala Local government area will be divided by the two parties. Friday Sanni Makama remains the undisputed game changer in Igalamela/Odolu. He is solidly behind the governor.
Interestingly, the home front of the governor, Dekina, is not guaranteed for him. The defection of Isah Jibrin Echocho and some other leaders in the Local Government Area has changed the political permutations of Dekina politics.
Pundits are giving a 55 percent cushion to PDP in Kogi East while the APC is tipped to capture 45 percent of the votes.
Issues that may shape the poll
The personalities of the contenders
While Wada has been hailed as a humble and listening leader, Audu has been credited for his infrastructural revolution while in power. However, opponents of the former governor do not rate him as far as humility is concerned.
Local Government staff and teachers’ salaries
The inability of Local Government Areas to pay their staff members have been blamed on the State Government. Similar problem is been encountered by primary school teachers in the state.
Though the government has been striving to ensure the backlogs are cleared through the yet to be released bailout funds, not a few voters are expected to vote against the PDP based on the salary issue.
The Gender Card
Kogi women are said to be more disposed to Wada, who is reckoned to enjoy a stable marriage. The governor is also hailed for giving women a number of high profile appointments. Though Prince Abubakar Audu ensured a woman rose to become the Secretary to the State Government under his administration.
Good Governance and Transparency
While Wada may be accused of not constructing many gigantic projects, Prince Audu did. Wada ensured peace and security in the state and made more efforts at bridging the ethnic gulfs in the state. Prince Audu’s candidacy has been flayed by critics as being an ethnic chauvinist and also on account of his ongoing trial for corruption during his term as governor between 1999 and 2003.
The Running Mate Issue
Salawu
Wada stuck to his running mate, Arc. Abayomi Awoniyi. Awoniyi is from a family of bureaucratic excellence. He learnt the dots of politics from his late father, Chief Sunday Bolorunduro Awoniyi. On the other hand, Hon. Abiodun Faleke is a veteran of the game, having been Chairman of the cosmopolitan Ikeja Local Government Area for two terms.
He is also representing Ikeja 2 Federal Constituency for the second consecutive term.
The choice of Faleke created bad blood among the APC leaders. It is believed in some quarters that a prominent Southwest leader of the APC brought Faleke in order to be able to tame Senator Dino Melaye for his “rebellion” in the Senate Presidency saga.
Also, failure of APC to pick a running mate from Yagba has also been condemned by Yagba political leaders. Both the Senator and governorship running mate are from Ijumu Local Government Area.
Whatever happens as 1,397,786 voters decide the next governor on today, Kogites expect their next governor to address the pressing issues of infrastructure, empowerment and ethnic bridging. November 21 is a date with the destiny of the Confluence State.
-Vanguard
