By Kehinde Okeowo
Since Nigeria’s independence, six democratically elected Presidents and a Prime Minister have governed the country. Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa were the President and Prime Minister respectively in the First Republic. The Second Republic was presided by Shehu Shagari from 1979-1983. Nigerians had to wait for another 16 years before General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected. He was president between 1999 and 2007. Thereafter, Umaru Yar’Adua was in charge between 2007 and 2010. He was succeeded by his Deputy, Dr Goodluck Jonathan who governed from 2010 to 2015 before the current president, Muhammadu Buhari assumed office in 2015.
Although power has been rotating between the North and South since 1999, the southern part of the country which comprises three regions, South-West, South-East and South–South, is expected to produce the next president in 2023. It is however note-worthy that no president has emerged from the south eastern part of the region, ever since. This development has necessitated the agitation in some quarters for the zone to produce the president in 2023. For those with this view, the demand is genuine and legitimate, given that Obasanjo from south-west and Jonathan from south-south had earlier led the country. The challenge however, is that the logic behind the argument or position may not necessarily translate to the attainment of this desire. Politics is all about the end justifying the means not logic, enlightened commentators argue. Therefore, people of the Orient must learn and strive to play the right politics when the time comes, they add.
Critics are of the opinion that one of the factors which may impinge on this aspiration is the temptation to hold on to power beyond Buhari’s administration by the North. They cite Atiku Abubakar’s veiled declaration of interest in the 2023 presidential election despite knowing the south would expect power to return to the region, as a pointer to that. There is also the consideration that the north understands the role of politics in the distribution and allocation of resources in Nigeria, which is why despite being disadvantage educationally; their awareness about electoral process and enthusiasm to vote is second to none. While the people of the south, especially the Easterners seem more interested in economic power, their Northern counterparts are keen on political power.
Another issue is the socio-political and economic rivalry between south-west and south-east. The history of the failed alliance between Chief Obafemi Awolowo of Western Region and Action group (AG) and Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria and Cameroons (NCNC) in the East during the First Republic easily comes as an example of several missed opportunities by these two major regional powers to work together using their combined numerical strength to challenge the political dominance of the north. Since the return of democracy in 1999, the two regions have always opposed each other in their political calculations. Rarely do politicians from both divides belong to the same political party. If history is anything to go by, this trend is likely to continue. In fact, some political observers are of the opinion that south-west constitutes the greatest impediment to the realization of the political ambition of south-east in 2023.
Perhaps the most critical dynamics in the political equation is the inability of people of south-east to play strategic politics. As it is today, there are two dominant political parties in the country – All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Barring unforeseen circumstances, one of these two political parties will win the next presidential election. The suggestion therefore is that to actualize the Igbo presidential aspiration, both parties must present candidates from the zone. This however is easier said than done because the zone is predominantly dominated by one of the parties – the PDP. PDP is very popular and loved by majority of the people from the zone. On the contrary, they are not so receptive of APC. This development can be counterproductive, since election is mostly won on the basis of political strength, analysts warn. There is the tendency that the APC may likely make a politically expedient decision rather than an emotional one by zoning its ticket to the south-west, a zone in which they are more popular and have more propensity to generate votes. If this is the case, then unless PDP is victorious in the election, it is unlikely that south-east will produce the next president. The other side of this argument is however that the APC may further alienate the South East by not offering it its presidential ticket.
The advice by analysts is that even as most political actors and citizens of Nigeria look toward to voting in a president from East in 2023, it is incumbent on politicians and people of the zone to know that while the sentiments are in their favor, it cannot be taken for granted or seen as a given. They cannot close their eyes, lean on the sentiments that the project is about equity, fairness and logic. They must know that power is earned and not given. They must be united, play their strength and most importantly be strategic in the way they play politic between now and then.
