By Emeka Alex Duru
For Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), picking the ticket of the party offers a refreshing reward to a search that had seen him in and out of the party in the last 12 years.
The first and last time he flew the flag of a political party was in the 2007 general election when he was the candidate of the then Action Congress (AC). He crossed over to the AC, having been forced out of the PDP by the departing President Olusegun Obasanjo, whom he had deputised. He however lost to the late President Umaru Yar’Adua.
Ever since, Atiku had been on the move, virtually shuffling between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC), on each occasion and movement, failing to pick a presidential ticket. The last in the movement which saw him leaving the ruling APC, took place on Friday, November 24, 2017.
In his letter of resignation, Atiku cited arbitrariness and unconstitutionality in the conduct of the affairs of the party as reasons for his exit. He also gave other reasons. Many however saw him moving because the APC had offered an automatic ticket to President Muhammadu Buhari. And PDP, the only opposition party that had the clout and spread to challenge APC, readily became a choice for him.
When therefore, the picked the party’s ticket at its convention in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, on Sunday, October 7 2018, it was more of a dream come through. His enthusiasm at the occasion, was, thus, not misplaced. But side-by-side his excitement at realising what had eluded him for quite some time, are challenges he needs to attend to if the dream of governing Nigeria would be actualised.
The incumbency factor
Perhaps, the greatest challenge before the PDP presidential candidate is the so-called incumbency factor in the country’s politics. Having been a Vice President under a PDP administration, Atiku knows how difficult it could be to dismantle a seating President. With many Nigerians still aghast with his party on how its 16 years in power wrought misery on the people, the former Vice President needs more than pledges of structuring and good governance to convince the voters that the PDP has learnt its lessons.
More than this, battling the Buhari presidency which commands large followership among the masses, especially in the North, cannot be a tea party for the PDP flag bearer. In fact, signs of what awaits him in the encounter began to unfold even before his emergence as a candidate when the APC released a controversial figure which credited Buhari with securing 15 million votes from members for his direct presidential primary. The mind-boggling figure comprising APC voters, remains a huge task for the Wazirin Adamawa to upturn.
Analysts are however disputing the figure. Some allege that it was bloated to boost the President’s dwindling popularity profile among Nigerians and party members, especially in the South. Others insinuate that it was a strategic attempt to position the ruling party to rig in 2019. Whichever way it goes, working round the figure, is seen as a huge task for Atiku.
The campaign of calumny and direct attack on his integrity are also issues the PDP flag bearer will contend with in the days ahead. Incidentally, the APC media attack dogs are already at work on the issues. Shortly after his emergence as the candidate last Saturday, insinuations of how he bought his way at the convention and other allegations of his corruption details became the topics on social media platforms. Though there has not been any proven incidence of malfeasance against Atiku, even with reports of the United States of America indicating that it had no case against him, the tag of corruption which was foisted on him by Obasanjo in their heady days, has resurfaced. Coming at a time when Nigerians are yearning for a clean break from the past that was characterised by behind-the-table tendencies in the conduct of government affairs, the PDP candidate needs a lot of explanations to make on why Nigerians should trust him.
Perhaps, what may save him from the allegations, is that he has not been found culpable on any incidence of corruption by any court in the land. Even the indicting report of the administrative panel of inquiry with which the Obasanjo administration had intended to frustrate him from running for the presidency under the AC in 2007, was later quashed by the Supreme Court for lacking in merit.
PDP and its past
While this may work for him, the negative reputation which his party has been associated with among critical Nigerians, remains a huge obstacle to the former Vice President. Even as the Buhari administration obviously gropes, not knowing how to put the economy on sound footing, the officials regularly blame the PDP for bequeathing it with a system that had been badly managed in the 16 years that PDP was in power. Atiku, incidentally, was part of the administration, for at least, eight years. The task before him in this regard, therefore, is to convince Nigerians that the allegation is a hoax or that he was not part of the mess.
Fixing the economy, restructuring the country
Voters will equally expect the PDP flag bearer to tell Nigerians in concrete terms, how he intends to refloat the economy and go about the issue of restructuring – the two points that had formed the kernel of his campaign while consulting for the party’s ticket.
While seeking for votes in 2015, Buhari had pledged to reposition the economy, tackle unemployment and battle insecurity. Almost four years after, the administration has considerably succeeded in checking the insurgency of Boko Haram in the North East. But while it appeared to have curbed the activities of the sect, it has had to contend with the menace of the Fulani herdsmen that have been running rings across the country.
The government is not known to have done much on repositioning the economy and tackling the high rate of unemployment. Even when it mouths initiatives at empowering the youth and other unemployed Nigerians, the situation remains critical.
Thus faced with what has apparently appeared a dummy from the APC to Nigerians in 2015, Atiku and his PDP need to present the electorate with sufficient proof on how he will make the economy work. He will also need to convince Nigerians on how he will go about restructuring the country in the interest of the majority. This is especially as the matter is not what can be actualised by mere presidential fiat. It is also not in the constitution and may therefore entail reworking the document or finding a way out of it in partnership with the National Assembly.
APC had trumpeted restructuring before the 2015 elections but on coming to power, seems to have jettisoned it. Even the report on the matter by the party’s panel headed by Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, has not been acted upon.
“Atiku should therefore be prepared to tell us how he hopes to carry out the exercise and the timeline he is putting on it. For those of us who sincerely believe that this country needs to be restructured on the path of equity, that is all that we demand from him. I can assure you that if he can do this satisfactorily, he can be sure of votes from the Political South, the Middle Belt and even some sections of the Core North and others that are rightly not comfortable with the current state of affairs”, volunteered a Senior Lecturer in the Department of History, Lagos State University.
Careful presentations on how he will deal with the two issues, may go a long way in working for Atiku. He also has the recent history of an incumbent losing election to fall on. Until 2015, it had not been the norm in Nigeria’s political history for an opposition candidate to dislodge a sitting president. But Buhari did that to President Goodluck Jonathan who ran on the ticket of the PDP. Thus, as the race for 2019 commences, the saying among PDP chieftains and commentators sympathetic to Atiku, is; “if Buhari could dislodge a sitting President, he can also be trumped”.
