Assistant Politics Editor, DANIEL KANU, writes on the Nigeria condition in the face of dwindling economy and renewed militancy in the Niger Delta
Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, on Tuesday, July 19, gave a damning verdict on the Nigeria condition when he told the Senate that the nation’s economy had entered into a deep crisis, and that it is likely to get worse if care is not taken.
Emefiele, who met with the apex legislative chamber in a closed-door session for close to two hours, also disclosed that Nigerians would have to sacrifice more because inflation would further skyrocket.
TheNiche gathered that the CBN boss had to own up to the true position of the economy as it appeared that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seems to have lost hope of proffering solution to the worrisome situation despite what they claim as the solution they presented to Nigerians in the open.
Arguably, the general perception that seems to have permeated the country majorly is that of pessimism on the ability of President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic team to come up with new ideas and strategies that would use the agriculture sector to diversify the economy.
This is also coming on the heels of the latest threat of the Niger Delta militants. Despite warnings and threats from the Presidency and military authorities to crush the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) and halt the incessant bombing of oil facilities, the militant group has even become more emboldened and audacious under Buhari’s watch that it has threatened the worst: total crippling of the economy.
By Thursday, June 2, it became apparent that the crisis in the Niger Delta had taken the form of a full-blown combat, as NDA – the new face of militancy in the oil-rich region – vowed to reduce Nigeria to tatters economically. And it is making good the threat through open confrontation and colossal damage of oil pipelines.
For instance, Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, has lamented that the activities of the NDA have taken a great toll on the economy and development of his state. Okowa pleads with the Avengers to embrace dialogue as it remains the best solution in the stand-off.
But the Presidency has reconsidered its tough stance on the NDA with Buhari announcing on Thursday, July 21 that his administration was in talks with the militants to see how to appease them for the sake of the country’s dwindling economy.
Risk evaded
Given the heightened tension in the region, Buhari had a re-think to cancel his scheduled visit to Niger Delta that Thursday to flag off the clean-up of oil spillage which has devastated the Ogoniland over the years.
NDA told Buhari not to come for the flag-off exercise, if he still valued his life.
Same Thursday, they blew up another pipeline in Bayelsa State, taunting both the Presidency and the military.
In fact, the group vowed to launch its rocket bomb on Tuesday, June 7, as well as endanger the airspace for any flight within the region.
The Avengers are daring. They had threatened to permanently shut down operations on all oil blocks belonging to Northerners. On Thursday, May 12, it gave a two-week ultimatum for the evacuation of workers from the locations or have them blown up.
“It will be bloody. So, just shut down your operations and leave,” the Avengers, in a statement forwarded by the spokesperson, self-styled Brigadier-General Murdock Agbinibo, threatened.
Already, oil firms are evacuating workers and some closing shop from the troubled region.
Buhari, in the opinion of most political observers, is seen as having a hard stance on issues concerning the region.
Many also believe that the defeat of Jonathan, an incumbent, in the 2015 presidential election may also not be unconnected with the angst in the region.
Acting president of Ijaw National Congress (INC), Charles Ambaiowei, said the plethora of failed promises by successive governments was responsible for the anger the nation is witnessing today. For him, the neglect of the region has reached a boiling point; hence the unrest in the region.
Sitting on gun powder keg
The latest threat by the Avengers is a warning that National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) as well as foreigners to leave oil fields in the region.
The Avengers are irked by the claims of the Nigerian Navy that it arrested the group’s logistics supplier, saying its operatives were intact. They boasted that they were winning the war despite claims by the Presidency that government is on top of the situation.
The militant group, in a statement by Agbinibo, said: “The news that the Nigerian Navy has arrested Niger Delta Avengers’ logistics supplier is the biggest joke of the 21st century. The Nigerian Navy cannot arrest any of our operatives until we bring down the economy of this country.
“We warn NUPENG, PENGASSAN and foreigners to leave all oil fields and terminals in the Niger Delta because it is going to be dirty very soon.
“As it is now, any Tom, Dick and Harry is a suspect of Niger Delta Avengers. The Nigerian Navy has lost its sense of professionalism. The Nigerian military arrested students in Oporoza and called them Niger Delta Avengers.
“Any criminal caught is a member of NDA, even their business partners (illegal oil bunkers) with whom things went sour, are NDA members. Sea pirates are now Avengers.
“We want to make this clear. All Avengers operatives are intact. Our intelligence agencies are all intact and our operational teams are in high spirit because we are winning the war. The Nigerian Navy cannot arrest any of our operatives until we bring down the economy of this country.
“When Avengers carry out any major attack, they (Nigerian military) will deny it. First is the blown NNPC pipeline and second, the 48-inch ExxonMobil pipeline blown by NDA. ExxonMobil and the government denied it, only for ExxonMobil to declare force majeure a few days after the attack. We want the public to know that the Qua Iboe export pipeline is down right now.”
The development, to most Nigerians, is a sad commentary for the country. As the economy continues to sink, there is at the moment huge job loss in the land, as more companies are poised to downsize.
Green alternative
Abuja has vowed to salvage the country’s economic situation.
As a measure, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the implementation of the Green Alternative – a road map towards diversifying the economy.
Minister of Agriculture, Audu Ogbeh, while briefing State House correspondents in Abuja on Wednesday, July 20, at the end of the Council’s meeting presided over by Buhari, said the plan of government is to make agriculture the next biggest alternative to oil and gas.
Ogbeh explained that the policy objective of the document, which has a four-year implementation period (2016 to 2020), would no doubt help to diversify the economy.
Said Ogbeh: “We have just concluded a (Federal Executive) Council meeting in which two issues were discussed. One is the roadmap for agricultural operations in the next three years which we presented to Council, today (Wednesday). It outlines our policy and our objectives in trying to see agriculture as the next and biggest alternative in our drive to diversify the economy of this country.
“The document is entitled ‘The Green Alternative’ and it outlines virtually everything we need to do, every policy we need to undertake to achieve self-sufficiency in agriculture and also to become a major exporter of agricultural products, a situation we occupied many decades ago.
“We are working hard, and thank God that ours has not become as bad as one South American country, which was also a major oil producing country, by that I mean Venezuela which situation is definitely 100 times worse than ours.”
admitting that government was aware of the sufferings of many families caused by food shortage, Ogbeh, however, stated that government was working hard to reverse the situation through the implementation of various agricultural programmes.
Danger ahead
Emefiele’s lucid and comprehensive presentation at the Senate, TheNiche gathered, presents a danger signal. This is because he exposed the danger with current global economic conditions, which have been characterised by external shocks, including the sharp decline in the prices of commodities like crude oil, the geo-political tensions along important global trading routes and tightening of monetary policy in the United States of America (U.S.A.).
In a statement shortly after the meeting by the leadership of the Senate, Emefiele was said to have drawn linkages of these occurrences with the Nigerian economy, especially with respect to the over 70 per cent decline in oil prices from about $116 per barrel in June 2014 to about $30 per barrel earlier in the year.
But the CBN governor further told the senators that it was frightening that the nation was experiencing economic stagnation and inflation simultaneously, just as he stressed that, ordinarily, stagnation and inflation should not happen at the same time.
In the verdict of Emefiele, the economy is gloomy, stagnant and worsening, and requires serious surgery.
Despite all the fears raised by Emefiele, most of the senators that took time to listen to his analysis were optimistic that the strategic health of Nigeria’s financial system is still strong at the moment.
There is technical recession, which does not pose much harm on the health of the nation’s economy, said Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun.
But critics say she is being economical with the truth.
Currently, Nigeria’s crude oil production has ebbed below 1.6 million barrels per day from more than two million barrels per day some months back. The nation is said to be losing 35,000 barrels per day.
Way out
Commentators have argued that unless government upholds justice, fairness and equality in its treatment to all Nigerians, the situation will continue to aggravate.
Most Nigerians have expressed worry on the lopsidedness of Buhari appointments so far, insisting it could breed bad blood, as most people felt marginalised by the system.
Also, critics have argued that the approach used by Buhari to tackle the NDA threat appears too confrontational rather than providing the needed dialogue expected to promote peace.
For former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Niger Delta issue should be handled with a stick and carrot approach. There is the need to restructure the polity, he added.
He is not alone in his view, as constitutional lawyer, Prof. Ben Nwabueze (SAN), and Nobel Laureate, Wole Soyinka, concurred with him that Nigeria needs restructuring.
Oodua People’s Congress (OPC) founder, Fredrick Fasehun, said: “If we do not restructure Nigeria, this country will not be at peace. Nigeria will not have peace until we have restructured, and the best thing Buhari can do to leave his imprints perpetually in history is to restructure Nigeria”.
Spokesperson of Ijaw Republican Assembly (IRA), Ann-Kio Briggs, on her part, said the federal government cannot keep Nigeria together by force. Restructuring, she added, should not be theoretical but practical.
Her words: “Restructuring should mean regionalism or internal self-determination which really packages everything internally that forms the component of the state of Nigeria. I am sceptical of Nigerian politicians who ought to have said something yesterday and they deliberately refused, only to come up now and say that same thing when it is most convenient for them. When I hear restructuring, I am not overtly impressed until it comes to pass.”
Observers who spoke with TheNiche say that beyond the fight against corruption, which many even see as selective, Buhari’s government is yet to get the magic wand to transform the nation into the needed change expected by the people.
The challenge before the government, they suggest, is to articulate a realistic roadmap that would produce positive results rather than the present excuses and complaints.
