By Kehinde Okeowo
The Ondo gubernatorial election held on October 10, 2020, came with a fairly laudable voter turnout of 32.84 %. Contrary to fears earlier expressed by analysts, the election was conducted in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Security agencies dealt effectively with pockets of violence in few places, civil society were on ground to monitor the poll while Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) once again, got a pass mark for a job well done. Commendation must also go to the people of the state for conducting themselves orderly. Despite the peaceful nature of the poll, politicians on all sides were alleged to have engaged in undemocratic act of vote buying.
TheNiche predictions
TheNiche newspaper earlier identified some factors which may determine where the pendulum would swing before the election. In the piece titled “Ondo Election: The intrigues, twists and turns”, the newspaper concluded that factors such as zoning sentiments, ambition of the southern senatorial district, performance, polarization in central senatorial districts and Dr Olusegun Mimiko’s influence were considerations likely to determine the outcome of the election. It further remarked that the incumbent, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu would likely be returned.
Ondo is divided into northern, central and southern senatorial districts with each zone having six local governments areas. In the run-up to the poll, only three out of the 17 contenders were considered major contenders. They were Akeredolu (SAN), the candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC) who is from Ondo north, Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), the flag bearer of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who is from Ondo central and Agboola Ajayi, the candidate of Zenith Labor Party (ZLP) who is from Ondo south.
Zoning sentiment
We concluded that the citizens of the state would likely be rooting for the candidate from the north and not the central or south. This was because the belief was that the position should be rotated among the three zones, hence it was the turn of the north to complete its two terms of eight years. The fact that the candidate from the north, Akeredolu won overwhelmingly in 15 of the 18 local governments and was competitive in two of the ones he lost, backed up the position of the TheNiche newspaper that people of the state wanted to ensure that zoning arrangement is not truncated.
Dividends of democracy
We also noted that people would likely sack a government that under-performed and re-elect one that kept its promises. An overview of the election result showed that, the governor got massive votes from regions where his projects are evidently visible. For instance, in Odigbo local government where APC got 23,571 votes in comparison to PDP’s 9,485 and ZPL’s 6,540 respectively, the governor built a fly over along Benin-Ore expressway. In Akoko North East, where a major road project in Ikare town is nearing completion, APC got 16, 572 votes which nearly doubled PDP’s 8,380 votes. Although he won majority of all the local governments, his margins are higher in most places where he is deemed to have delivered dividends of democracy.
Power rotation to the south
Our Newspaper concluded that this region is aware that it is expected to produce the next governor after four more years of Akeredolu and would likely support the north to complete its term and thereafter expect a reciprocal gesture hence it was necessary to ditch Ajayi, who is from the zone. Election results from the six local governments that make up the senatorial district, Irele, Okitipupa, Ile Oluji/Okeigbo, Ese-Odo, Odigbo and Ilaje showed that APC won in all the local governments. It scored 108,788 votes, while PDP and ZPL scored 50,384 and 33, 360 votes respectively. The result showed the region voted massively for the incumbent and candidate from the north despite being represented by a candidate.
Polarization in central senatorial district
We opined that given the cosmopolitan nature of Akure South local government and its status as state capital, it may not provide the desired advantage for Jegede who hails from there. In addition, we observed that the political influence of Dr Olusegun Mimiko; the political godfather of ZLP’s candidate would negatively impact the chances of Jegede in Ondo central especially in Ondo West and Ondo East local governments. Though Jegede won in Akure North and Ifedore local governments and also won convincingly in Akure South local government, the incumbent won the remaining three local governments – Ondo West, Ondo East and Idanre local governments and got significant vote from the Akure south. All these neutralised the effect of whatever advantage Jegede mustered from his region. Mimiko’s influence equally affected Jegede’s fortunes as votes that could have gone to him were shared between him and ZPL candidate. In all, while Jegede scored a total of 93,917 votes in his zone, Akeredolu got a fair share of 69,921 votes which means Jegede won the zone with just 23,996 votes compared to Akeredolu won his own region, Ondo North, with a margin of 62, 621. In other words, it could be argued, that Akeredolu maximized his home advantage and remained competitive in Jegede’s stronghold as predicted by our newspaper.
Conclusion
Ajayi got 12% of valid votes which amounted to 69, 127 votes but did not win any local government. Jegede polled 34.1% of valid votes being 195, 791 votes to come second with wins in three local governments. As predicted by TheNiche, Governor Akeredolu won re-election, after securing 51.1% of all valid votes being 292,830 votes. He won in 15 of the 18 local governments.
