Given that the Middle East crisis will not abate any time soon, the future looks bleak for Nigerians. If the crisis in the Middle East continues, fuel prices and the prices of other essential commodities will definitely go beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. When COVID-19 came, Nigeria was caught in the middle. It exposed the country’s ill-prepared structures for emergencies. The country’s obvious failings then were blamed on the cluelessness of the then president Muhammadu Buhari. Indeed, the situation has gotten worse after Buhari. What then should we call improvement on cluelessness?
By Promise Adiele
The US and Israel are on one side. Iran is on the opposite side. Tempers are flaring. There are irreconcilable differences. Accusations and counter accusations, and the Middle East has inevitably become a site of heavy military bombardment. Many lives have been lost. Properties and infrastructure worth billions of dollars have been destroyed, and innocent children have lost their lives in the fracas. No one knows exactly when it will end, not the US, not Israel and certainly not Iran.
President Donald Trump is adamant that Iran will capitulate. Israel is sure that Iran will be crushed, but Iran is holding out with firm tenacity and resolve. As expected, many countries around the world have taken sides in the ongoing crisis. While some countries support Iran and condemn the US and Israel, other countries support the US and Israel while berating Iran for allegedly keeping nuclear weapons. Although the US has announced a temporary ceasefire, the onslaught on Iran is real.
Given the strategic position of the Middle East in world economy, the crisis in the region has affected world economic prospects. Third-world and developing countries are suffocating. Many of them, including Nigeria, are hit by a spike in inflation, astronomical increase in prices of energy, pharmaceuticals, food and other essential commodities. The Strait of Hormuz, a symbolic site where 30 per cent of global trade crosses, has been taken over by Iranian forces. This means that many vessels carrying multi-billion-dollar goods are held hostage there. In response, shipping firms have hiked their charges. As the Middle East boils, there are palpable fears that it may lead to a major global catastrophe, and the world will never be the same again.
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In Nigeria, it did not take long before the crisis in the Middle East extracted its pound of flesh on the country’s fragile, unstable economy. The first casualty was the energy sector. Today, the price of fuel in the country has risen exponentially, plunging the already impoverished populace into more misery. Across the country, depending on the location, petrol sells between N1,250 and N1,500. Transport fares have hit the roof. In the cities, many people are forced to trek long distances or sleep in their offices to save costs. While government apologists have blamed the current economic gloom on the Middle East conflict, concerned citizens have queried why Nigeria should suffer an energy crisis, given that it is an oil-producing country.
Many non-oil-producing countries in Africa have not suffered the same calamitous fate as Nigeria, and this leaves much to be desired. It exposes the spurious, scrawny underbelly of the Nigerian economy, which can easily be tossed around by any global crisis. Yet, Nigeria is an oil-producing country. This contradiction reveals a sinister leadership machinery in all its impotent grasp of economics. More worrisome, it calls into question President Bola Tinubu’s expertise in presiding over an economy that continues to acquire a degenerate status daily.
Many times, apologists of the current government have latched on to mindless sophistry to argue that the president’s tough economic decisions and the attendant hardship on the populace would yield results later. Three years after the government came to power, the country continues to gravitate into an economic cesspool with marked irredeemable consequences. If there was any remote stability in the Nigerian economy, the Middle East crisis would be a good opportunity for the government to demonstrate its economic expertise by providing immediate safety nets to cushion the effects on the people.
It simply means that the Tinubu economy never provided for the rainy day. It was all about ostentation and frivolous indulgences, which endlessly bled the exchequer. The Middle East crisis has exposed Nigeria’s economy for what it is – it lacks any defence in the event of an emergency. It is more depressing because when the current government came to power, the president summarily removed the fuel subsidy. He assured Nigerians that the removal would help the country save N2 trillion naira every month. He also promised Nigerians that the funds saved from the removal of the subsidy would be ploughed back into infrastructural development, building safety nets for economic emergencies, and easing transportation across the country. While apologists of the government cheered, conscientious observers took the announcement with a pinch of salt.
Today, it is obvious that the presidential announcement was unpresidential in all ramifications. No safety net was built, and the economy is in a shambles. The government has argued that the money saved from the removal of oil subsidy is shared among the governors every month, therefore, the governors do not borrow money anymore to pay salaries. Such a lame argument puts a big question mark on the intellectual capacities of otherwise educated people. Every state in Nigeria should have the capacity to increase its Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and not depend on the federal government for handouts. Most critics believe that the funds given to the state governors are mere inducements to cross-carpet to the APC with the 2027 election in view. This is because the governors are not accountable to the people, especially if they identify with the ruling APC.
It is a shame on any governor in Nigeria to depend on funds from the federal government to pay salaries. Yet, some states are a crying necropolis where schools, roads, hospitals, and sundry infrastructure are eyesores. It becomes even more tragic that the government would encourage the indolence of state governors and then turn around to take loans from all over the world. The Middle East crisis and the attendant economic challenges in the country would have been a very good opportunity for the federal government to demonstrate to Nigerians the amount of money saved from oil subsidy removal. Also, the government has always regaled Nigerians with improved Foreign Reserves. How can a government have a rich Foreign Reserve and continue to borrow money from willing global lenders? It completely defeats every iota of reason. From all indications, the current government deliberately inflicted pain on Nigerians and obfuscated the reality with bogus economic claims. The current Middle East crisis has exposed the perfidy of the current government, revealing to Nigerians that there is no safety net anywhere, and the removal of oil subsidy was for venal purposes.
As an oil-producing country, Nigeria does not deserve to suffer an energy crisis as a result of war in the Middle East. Disturbingly, the government attributes every economic difficulty in the country to the crisis in the Middle East. Unfortunately, people buy into that misleading narrative. Electricity supply in the country has hit an all-time low. I am wondering if it is also connected to the Middle East crisis. For the record, President Bola Tinubu, while campaigning to become the president before the election, openly promised Nigerians an uninterrupted power supply. In fact, he urged Nigerians not to vote for him for a second term if he does not provide electricity for 24 hours, seven days a week. Some spin doctors must find a way to blame Nigeria’s abysmal electricity supply on the Middle East crisis. Nigerians are helpless, docile and gullible. We have believed many things in the past and will easily believe any blame on the Middle East crisis.
The current energy crisis in Nigeria has proved beyond every scintilla of doubt that the removal of the oil subsidy and a promise to save money was reckless and delusional. Of course, money may be saved from the removal of the oil subsidy. Still, the big question is – how have millions of impoverished Nigerians benefited from that removal? That the governors are personally benefiting from the money saved from oil subsidy removal does not translate to better living conditions for the masses. Given that the Middle East crisis will not abate any time soon, the future looks bleak for Nigerians. If the crisis in the Middle East continues, fuel prices and the prices of other essential commodities will definitely go beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. When COVID-19 came, Nigeria was caught in the middle. It exposed the country’s ill-prepared structures for emergencies. The country’s obvious failings then were blamed on the cluelessness of the then president Muhammadu Buhari. Indeed, the situation has gotten worse after Buhari. What then should we call improvement on cluelessness?
The current government must immediately set aside all the drumbeats and maniacal ambition of re-election in 2027 and focus on providing safety nets to cushion the economic effects of a prolonged Middle East crisis. Otherwise, the country would be grappling with existential and economic tragedies that would rekindle poverty and penury in many households. While we all wish that the Middle East crisis ends soon, the government must be proactive in designing an economic prognosis to ameliorate the current hardship across the country. It is the responsibility of the government to protect the citizens, and it must live up to that responsibility even if the Middle East crisis persists.
