Latest poll, the fifth back to back, puts Obi ahead of presidential runners
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Peter Obi had long dominated the leaderboard of every scientific opinion poll before his bombshell endorsement by former President Olusegun Obasanjo on 1 January which rattled all political opponents, including the moneybags and the bullion vans.
Obi has topped the latest survey just the same.
A poll conducted by Market Trends International (MTI) placed Obi (Labour Party, LP), above Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress, APC), Rabiu Kwankwaso New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP), and Omoyele Sowore (African Action Congress, AAC), among others.
This is the fifth successive nationwide scientific poll of ‘registered and decided voters’ since September 2022 that has given Obi the lead.
MTI, a market research firm, said it has operated in Nigeria and other African countries for over 30 years and is skilled in both qualitative and quantitative studies.
MTI Executive Director Victor Ozinegbe Ebhomenye disclosed 44 per cent of the respondents said they would likely vote Obi on 25 February, more than double the proposed score of the nearest candidate, Tinubu.
“This may have come as a surprise to Nigerians because the Labour Party and Obi had no presence in Nigerian presidential scene as at December 2021,” he said.
The poll was conducted between 9 and 22 November 2022.
It gave Tinubu 19 per cent, Atiku (16 per cent), Kwankwaso (14 per cent), Sowore (zero per cent), others (5 per cent), those who refused to disclose their choice (1 per cent), undecided (1 per cent).
“Obi has picked up pace in the race since he declared interest to run with the Labour Party as the party’s presidential candidate at its national convention and presidential primary in Asaba, the capital of Delta State, on Monday, May 30 after other aspirants, like former presidential adviser, Pat Utomi; Faduri Joseph and Olubusola Emmanuel-Tella, stepped down,” Ebhomenye recounted.
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Voters in online poll by Arewa Trust (based in Kano) give Obi 95%, Tinubu 2.56%, Atiku 1.81%
New poll favours Obi to win 2023 presidential election, Atiku, Tinubu struggle
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Opinion poll result vs actual election result
All the five scientific opinion polls conducted so far show the majority of respondents saying they would elect Obi the next President. Provided the election is not rigged as was always the case in past elections.
Election rigging distorts reality.
If most registered voters disclose in a survey they will vote for a particular candidate, and they actually do so on Election Day, but the result is rigged, then the opinion poll is not wrong and cannot be faulted.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has pledged that electronic transmission of result from polling units, which has reduced the chances of vote rigging since at least 2020, will be used in the 2023 ballot.
Obi’s emergence on presidential stage
“With Obi’s emergence, the party received boosts to achieve lasting alliance talks with NNPP (this alliance is said to have collapsed at the moment; Zenith Labour Party; Allied Peoples Movement; National Rescue Movement; Peoples Redemption Party, and African Democratic Congress, among others before the February 2023 presidential race,” MTI said, per reporting by The Sun.
According to MTI, the proposed alliance halted the APC and PDP from dominating the election, and the PDP was initially seen as the most popular to win as of December 2021 with 52 per cent of respondents backing the party.
“When asked whom they will vote for, 28 per cent of respondents leaned towards voting for the PDP. However, findings show that 45 per cent of respondents were undecided and did not know which party they would vote for as at December 2021.
MTI said since the PDP presidential primary in May 2022 and Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike having been overlooked for running mate, he and four other PDP Governors (the G5) have constituted themselves into an opposition within the party.
“It is believed these G5 Governors – Wike, Seyi Makinde; Samuel Ortom; Okezie Ikpeazu; and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi – discreetly withdrew their support for Atiku and this could be one factor to explain the drastic fall in support for the PDP.
“This has also contributed to Tinubu and Obi gaining more ground in the upcoming presidential election race.”
Findings tally with previous survey results
“Furthermore, when asked to advise the incoming President on challenges to tackle immediately he assumes office, Nigerians advised [him] to make insecurity (46 per cent), collapsed economy (20 per cent), and unemployment (18 per cent) his top priority.
“This order tallies with the previous survey results.
“Insecurity in Nigeria is a recurring phenomenon that threatens our well-being. The South West is plagued by a surge in cybercrime, armed robbery, kidnapping, domestic crime, extra-judicial killings, herder-farmer conflicts, ritual killings and banditry.
“The South East is a haven for ritual killings, commercial crime, secessionist agitation, kidnapping, herder-farmer clashes, attacks by gunmen and banditry.
“The South South remains threatened by militancy, kidnapping and environmental agitation.
“The North East has been subjected to a humanitarian crisis lasting over a decade, caused by the Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State in the West Africa Province.
“Meanwhile, the North West is enmeshed in illegal mining, ethno-religious killings, and banditry.”
