By Ishaya Ibrahim
War or election
In theory, election will be holding in Kogi on November 11. In reality, happenings in the state give the impression of a war dressed as democracy.
There have been several reports of attempted assassination against leading opposition figures. Even the Kogi government alleged recently that the governor, Yahaya Bello, came under one of such attacks. But the governor later dispelled the news as fake.
Analysts forecast that if security officials don’t play neutral in the Kogi election, the winner may just be the party that unleashed the most violence. But police boss, Kayode Egbetokun, has assured that adequate security would be provided to keep trouble makers under check.
The Gladiators
On paper, there are 18 candidates for the November 11 governorship poll. But those with real political weights are three – Usman Ododo of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Murtala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In the event of a free and fair election, analysts have predicted Ajaka of the SDP as having a higher chance of winning. Ododo is placed second in the ranking while Dino Melaye comes third. The prediction is hinged on the premise that Melaye is disadvantaged in the race because voting will likely be influenced by ethnic affiliations. Dino’s Okun tribe is ranked third on population strength, followed by Ebira, which is Ododo’s ethnic group and the Igala tribe being the dominant.
Why tribe matter
The Igalas have democratically ruled Kogi since the creation of the state. But the death of Abubakar Audu, who was moment way from being declared winner of the 2015 poll, changed the tide. Yahaya Bello, who came second during APC primary was handed over the mantle of the state without any vote.
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In his 2019 re-election, Yahaya Bello was believed to have suppressed the votes of the Igala through violence, and inflated the votes from his Ebira area. The Igalas have held a grudge since then.
Kogi’s political map
The three major candidates come from the three dominant tribes in the state. Dino is from the Okun tribe, which is the Yoruba speaking people of the state. This tribe is spread across six of the 21 local government areas namely: Kabba-Bunu, Yagba-West, Yagba-East, Mopa-Muro, Ìjùmú and Lokoja.
Ododo is from Ebira just as Yahaya Bello, and they reside mainly in five of the 21 local government areas of the state – Adavi, Ajaokuta, Koton-Karfi, Okehi and Okene.
Ajaka, who appears to have the momentum in the election, is Igala, the tribe with the most population in Kogi. They are the dominant in nine local governments and have sizeable presence in two others. Rough estimates put the Igala at nearly 45 per cent of the total population in the state.
Tinubu’s factor
Until May this year, Ajaka was a member of the APC, and a strong ally of Tinubu. During the build up to the 2023 election, he donated 46 vehicles to Tinubu’s presidential campaign in Kogi.
Insiders in Kogi politics told this medium that all has not been well between Tinubu and Yahaya Bello. They say Tinubu shunned Yahaya Bello’s nominee for ministerial appointment and appointed son of his old political ally, Abubakar Audu as minister. Recall that in 2015, Abubakar Audu picked as his running mate, James Faleke, one of the closest associates of Tinubu. The plan, according to those in the know, was Tinubu’s way of positioning his trusted allies in strategic positions so that when the time comes for his presidential quest, they would be in a position to help. But death took Audu away.
Yahaya Bello was believed to have overreached himself when he decided to contest the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC against Tinubu.
According to information gleaned from sources in the camp of the APC in Kogi, Tinubu has not forgiven Yahaya Bello for not endorsing him during the APC primary like the other contenders who dropped out of the race. Yahaya Bello stuck it out to the end. .
Sources say Tinubu’s camp still believes Yahaya Bello may be nursing another presidential ambition after the failed one which he vied against Tinubu in the APC primary. They fear that he might team up with other northern elements to create trouble for Tinubu in 2027, hence the need to clip his political wings.
But Yahaya Bello has the war chest that will play a crucial role in the aid of his candidate given the wide scale poverty among the electorates, especially since the removal of fuel subsidy.
In the end, the contest will be determined by INEC’s willingness to guarantee a free poll and security agencies resolve to stay neutral.
