By Ishaya Ibrahim
The South South poses no obstacle for the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar.
The region, which has a voting size of 12.8 million, is traditionally PDP, except for Edo which is in the All Progressives Congress (APC) column. But even Edo has a history of voting the PDP in presidential candidates.
Muhammadu Buhari, the APC flag bearer, has never won any of the South South states since he started running for the office.
In the 2011 poll, his total votes in the region were 49,978, which represented 0.8 per cent. The remaining 99 per cent of the voters chose his rival, Goodluck Jonathan, whose votes were more than 6 million.
In the 2015 election, despite having two governors in the region – Rivers and Edo, Buhari’s votes was 9 per cent or roughly about 450,000. Jonathan swept the remaining 91 per cent, that is, 4.7 million votes.
In Rivers, for instance, Jonathan had more than 1.4 million votes in the 2015 election. Buhari got 69,000 votes, despite the incumbency advantage his party enjoyed.
In this election, the APC has been able to attract some other PDP bigwigs into its fold. These politicians like Godswill Akpabio, Emmanuel Uduaghan, Ndoma Egba and others, will help President Muhammadu Buhari cushion his losses in the South South. But it may not be significant enough.
Buhari’s chances in the 2019 election may, however, resemble the progress he made in 2015 where he leapt from less than 1 per cent to 9 per cent.
He is expected to convince at least 20 per cent of the South South voters this time around.
