An undeterred Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is poised to claw back lost territory in the governorship and state Assembly ballot on Saturday, April 11 from an All Progressives Congress (APC) invigorated by its electoral tsunami on March 28 which clinched the Villa.
The stakes are still high, despite the concessions, congratulations, and expressions of goodwill. Ground operations in states coalesce to determine the success or failure of a political party at the federal level – and eyes are already on 2019.
Only 29 governorships are up for grabs in this election cycle.
Seven states – Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Osun – will have theirs coming up at different dates between 2016 and 2018, but they will hold Assembly polls this Saturday.
Facilitate or frustrate
The PDP currently has 21 governors, the APC 14, and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) one.
State lawmakers can facilitate or frustrate the job of a governor, and that is why a party tries hard to control in each state both Government House and the state Assembly.
However, it is also a dicey situation for a state to be controlled by a party different from the one at the helm in Abuja.
If wishes were horses, each state would join the federal wagon – but for the potent mix of local sentiments, religion, tribalism, and historical grudges often at play.
Nonetheless, some battleground states highlighted below may throw up surprises.
Kaduna
Governor Ramalan Yero is walking a tightrope. The odds against him are many.
His campaign is demoralised following the crushing defeat of the PDP in the presidential and National Assembly (NASS) elections.
His challenger, Nasir el-Rufai, is a member of the APC.
Vice President, Namadi Sambo, hails from Kaduna State, yet his PDP delivered only 484,084 votes for President Goodluck Jonathan on March 28 (29 per cent of total votes). President-elect Muhammadu Buhari of the APC garnered 1,127,760 votes (68 per cent).
The APC also won two senatorial seats, leaving the PDP with one from its initial two. This has unsettled Yero.
Yero has not endeared himself to many in southern Kaduna who accuse him of abandoning projects which the late Governor Ibrahim Yakowa initiated in the area. Yakowa died in a helicopter crash on December 15, 2012, halfway into his first term. Yero, his Deputy, succeeded him.
El-Rufai’s campaign is bolstered by the victory of Buhari, whose supporters may complete the task of seeing the APC all the way.
Katsina
Having won the presidential vote in Katsina by 91 per cent, Buhari faces the hard nut of ensuring the success of the APC in his home state. Despite his unrivaled following in the North, the PDP has won Katsina’s governorship elections since 1999.
In 2011, Buhari, then presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), got 1,154,000 votes in Katsina State, Jonathan polled 424,587.
But this was reversed in the governorship ballot. Governor Ibrahim Shema of the PDP received 1,027,912 ballots to overrun Aminu Masari of the CPC who got 555,769.
So, there is no guarantee that Buhari’s party, the APC, would win the state’s election.
In fact, the PDP seems to have the ace, as many things favour PDP governorship candidate, Musa Nashuni, who squares up against Masari, a two-time governorship aspirant.
Nashuni, a local-breed politician, was a Commissioner under Shema for seven and a half years, holding several portfolios. Analysts say the resources of the state have been deployed for his campaign.
Another advantage for Nashuni is that he is from Kankia Council that is clamouring for power shift.
This is coupled with the developmental projects of the Shema administration which backs the Nashuni campaign. Katsina people are said to be happy with Shema for building roads that connect the state capital with all the 34 councils.
However, the emergence of Buhari as President-elect may alter calculations in favour of Masari, who hails from a minority area, Kafur.
As it stands, Katsina is too close to call.
Kano
Umar Ganduje (APC) is on pole position. Sagir Takai (PDP) is the underdog because of Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s achievements which projects the APC in the limelight.
Sokoto
House of Representatives Speaker Aminu Tambuwwal (APC) defected from the PDP. Some observers believe that the platform of the APC is more solid than that of the PDP.
Zamfara
Safe to say that Governor Abdulaziz Yari (APC) will retain the state.
Borno
PDP governorship candidate, Gambo Lawan, faces a hurdle in his attempt to displace Governor Kashim Shettima. A major campaign point against Lawan, former Warri Refinery Chairman, is that he is detached from the plight of his people since he lives mainly in London and Abuja.
The PDP got 5 per cent of the vote in the presidential election, the APC 92 per cent.
Nasarawa
Three strong candidates – Governor Tanko Al-Makura (APC), Labaran Maku (APGA), and Yusuf Agbabi (PDP).
Ethnic and religious considerations are expected to play a part.
Maku, the only Christian in the race, may clinch the majority votes in the Eggon/Akwanga axis. Al-Makura holds sway in Lafia/Doma. The PDP may cut into APC territory.
Too close to call.
Taraba
Squarely between Aisha Alhassan (APC) and Darius Ishaku (PDP).
In presidential election, the PDP received 310,800 votes, the APC 261,326.
The PDP is expected to replicate the victory in the governorship poll.
Jigawa
The PDP made a poor showing in the presidential election, scoring 13.3 per cent, and lost all three senatorial seats to the APC.
Before the election, PDP governorship candidate, Aminu Ringim, appeared stronger in opinion poll. But the party was crushed in the presidential ballot, and APC candidate, Hassan Hadejia, is waxing stronger.
Too close to call.
Yobe
Governor Ibrahim Gaidam (APC) is also poised to win second term.
Adamu Waziri (PDP) poses little or no threat to the APC which polled 90.7 per cent in the vote for Aso Rock. The PDP got 5 per cent.
Bauchi
Awwal Jatau (PDP) faces a tough contest against Mohammed Abubakar (APC), despite the fact that the state is controlled by the PDP, whose National Chairman, Adamu Mu’azu, also hails from the state.
Too close to call.
Gombe
Governor Hassan Dankwambo (PDP) is seeking a second term. Though he holds the ace as an incumbent, Mohammed Yahaya (APC) wants to stop him.
Yahaya is backed by former Governor Danjuma Goje. Too close to call.
Kebbi
If the defeat of Governor Saidu Dakingari (PDP) in the Senate election on March 28 is the gauge, the PDP governorship candidate, Sarkin Bello may not win.
Adamawa
Nuhu Ribadu (PDP), former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairman, is a prominent figure.
But his chances of winning hang in the air as Bindow Jibrilla (APC) is also a political heavyweight in his own right.
The APC ran away with 374,701 votes in the presidential election, against 251,664 for the PDP.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubaka, an APC chieftain, would like to make a point that having defected from the PDP, he still has the clout to dictate Adamawa politics.
Plateau
Despite the popularity of the PDP on the Plateau, it received 55 per cent of the presidential vote while the APC scored 42 per cent.
With such a tight race, the PDP may have a problem in the governorship battle. Governor Jonah Jang is accused of being clannish. He has won the senatorial seat for Plateau North, a position his nephew, Senator Gyang Pwajok, currently occupies.
Jang has positioned Pwajok to replace him as Governor. Disenchanted voters may go for Simon Lalong, the APC governorship candidate.
Benue
The main contestants are Terhemen Tarzor (PDP) and Samuel Ortom (APC).
In the presidential ballot, APC scored 373,961 votes, PDP 303,737.
Governor Gabriel Suswam is mobilising support for Tarzor. But Ortom is well known for his philanthropy.
Niger
Governor Mu’azu Aliyu (PDP) lost his senatorial bid to the APC on March 28. Sani Bello (APC) seems to have a good chance in the governorship vote.
However, Umar Nasko (PDP) is also a strong candidate.
Too close to call.
Kwara
Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of the APC is in firm control. His party polled 302, 146 votes (65.5 per cent) in the presidential election, the PDP 132, 602 (26.7 per cent).
Ahmed’s Chief Press Secretary (CPS), Wahab Oba, said “it will be an interesting election but the good work of [Ahmed] will help him to return to power.
“The electorate were wonderful during the presidential and senatorial as well as the House of Representatives elections on March 28 and we expect them to also troop out on Saturday, April 11 to consolidate on the good they did by re-electing Ahmed.”
However, PDP governorship candidate, Simeon Ajibola, seems unruffled as feelers said his supporters will give a good fight.
Lagos
Never in the history of elections has Nigeria’s most populous state witnessed what happened in the federal elections on March 28.
Though the APC swept all the three Senatorial seats and won 18 of the available 24 seats in the House of Representatives, the APC got 792,460 votes (53 per cent), the PDP 632, 327 (42.3 per cent). This gives the APC sleepless nights.
The governorship is a straight battle between APC candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode, and PDP candidate, Jimi Agbaje.
Lagos has never fallen into the PDP column. But Agbaje has been employing effective strategies to garner support, such as increasing his presence in the social media, distributing fliers, and displaying posters.
He is inspired by the overwhelming victory in Ekiti of PDP’s Ayo Fayose over Governor Kayode Fayemi of the APC in June 2014.
Agbaje hopes to replicate the Ekiti feat in Lagos to break the 16-year hold of the opposition. However, the loss of the Presidency by the PDP may work against Agbaje.
Besides, the APC cannot afford to lose Lagos, where former Governor Bola Tinubu laid the foundation that has helped Governor Babatunde Fashola to record achievements, particularly in terms of infrastructure and security.
Ogun
The APC is confident of victory based on the achievements of Governor Ibikunle Amosun.
The PDP, APGA, Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) are united by a common goal that “Amosun Must Go”, which they chorus everywhere they campaign.
However, it is a three-way battle between the APC, PDP, and SDP.
The PDP put up a strong resistance in the presidential election, snatching one senatorial seat from the APC.
This has emboldened the PDP to push to displace Amosun, whose achievements include provision of bridges and flyovers, model schools, and security.
Amosun enjoys the support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who hails from Owu as Amosun. Obasanjo drummed up support for Amosun during his 78th birthday celebration in Abeokuta.
Some analysts reiterated, however, that although Obasanjo has influence in national politics, he has no electoral value in Ogun. He lost to opposition parties in his ward each time he vied for election. His daughter, Iyabo, also lost in her ward in the 2011 National Assembly vote.
Oyo
The major contenders – Teslim Folarin (PDP), Adebayo Alao-Akala (LP), and Rasheed Ladoja (Accord) – could surprise Governor Abiola Ajimobi (APC).
Enugu
Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of the PDP and Okey Ezea of the APC are the main contenders.
Enugu is traditionally a PDP state, and it showed in the presidential poll in which the APC got 2.2 per cent of the votes.
But some stakeholders agitate for the election of Ezea to put the state in the federal column ruled by the APC, against the wishes of PDP stalwarts who believe that Ugwuanyi will win in a free and fair poll.
The PDP won all the senatorial and House of Representatives seats on March 28.
Abia
Straight fight between Okezie Ikpeazu (PDP) and Alex Otti (APGA). APGA is expected to make strong showing but pundits tip the PDP, which won all the senatorial and House of Representatives slots on March 28.
There is agitation for power shift to Ukwa/Ngwa based on an understanding among the founding fathers of Abia that power should revolve between the two major blocs, Old Bende and Aba.
Abia North produced Orji Uzor Kalu as Governor. Theodore Orji, after serving out his eight-year term as Governor on May 29, proceeds to the Senate to represent Abia Central.
Abia South, where Ikpeazu comes from, is expected to produce the next governor.
What may work against Otti is that the majority of Abians see him as an Arochukwu man in Abia North, even though he has lived all his life in Ngwa (Abia South).
Imo
Governor Rochas Okorocha (APC) and Emeka Ihedioha (PDP) square up.
In the presidential election the PDP got 559,185 votes and APC 133,253. The result appears to confirm the claim by PDP that Imo belongs to it.
Ihedioha has gained some degree of acceptability by the electorate despite the PDP loss at the centre. The zoning system also favours his area, Mbaise, known for political awareness and connections across the country.
But Okorocha has urged Imolites to disregard zoning. He promised a better future if given a second tenure.
He said he would create more industries for employment, develop rural areas, invest more on his free education scheme, and eradicate poverty through skills acquisition.
The odds strongly favour Ihedioha
Ebonyi
A triangular fight between Deputy governor, David Umahi (PDP), Edward Nkwegu (LP), and Julius Ucha (APC).
Governor Martin Elechi supports Nkwegu. Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, allegedly supports Umahi.
The APC is relatively unknown. The odds favour the PDP.
Akwa Ibom
Pundits narrow the field of seven candidates to two: Udom Emmanuel (PDP) and Okon Umana (APC).
Despite the rift in the PDP that led to the defection of its members to the APC, the PDP remains unshaken.
However, even though Udom seems competent for the job, the grouse of the people is that his win means Governor Godswill Akpabio will be doing a third term, ruling through him.
Umana was Finance Commissioner in Victor Attah’s administration and then Secretary to the State Government for six years in the administration of Akpabio.
Initially, analysts put Umana and Udom’s chances at 50-50. However, the presidential election which favoured the APC may change the arithmetic.
It is believed that the PDP camp is disorganised and there are talks of realignment with the APC.
A PDP stalwart, Ikot Edem, argued that “Akwa Ibom cannot play opposition. We must vote for Umana Okon Umana to enable us connect with the government at the centre.”
Umana is from the Ibibio ethnic group, which constitutes 60 per cent of the population. His running mate, Ben Ukpong, is from Oro where the people are said to be itching to vote the APC.
Cross River
The APC stands little chance against Ben Ayade of the PDP.
Delta
Between Ifeanyi Okowa (PDP) and O’tega Emerhor (APC). Great Ogboru of the Labour Party (LP) is also in the race but he stands little or no chance.
All eyes are on Okowa. His emergence shocked Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan who initially endorsed Tony Obuh before settling for David Edevbie at the last minute.
Although Uduaghan appears at Okowa’s campaigns, many alleged that his support is not backed with funds.
Okowa is from Ika, in Delta North. If ethnicity plays a part, this may mean trouble for Okowa because he is from a minority ethnic group. His saving grace may be the split in the Urhobo Progress Union (UPU) between Emerhor and Ogboru.
On the other hand, Okowa has the support of bigwigs in the state and has a bigger war chest.
Rivers
Nyesom Wike (PDP) and Dakuku Peterside (APC) are the front runners.
The political temperature is conditioned mainly by the Riverine-Upland dichotomy and ethnicity. There was hardly godfatherism until 1999 when new power wielders with enormous financial muscle and influence were created.
More importantly, the defection of Governor Chibuike Amaechi from the PDP to the APC in 2013 changed the character of politics in this Deep South state.
The factors of Jonathan and his wife, Patience, may determine the governorship election, presaged by the presidential poll in which the APC got only 4.4 per cent.
This notwithstanding, Rivers seems set for the complex battle underlined by a new dominant power in Abuja, revisionist tendencies, as well as geo-political, ethnic and socio-cultural relations.
Wike’s profile
He and Amaechi are from Ikwerre ethnic group, and both teamed up in 2011 to win Rivers for Jonathan and Amaechi.
Amaechi once employed him as Chief of Staff, then became Minister of State for Education in Jonathan’s cabinet.
He later joined Jonathan and Patience in the political battle with Amaechi, which gave him more power and leverage – and the platform to go for the governorship.
Wike formed a pressure group, the Grassroots Development Initiative (GDI), in the 23 councils in the state which metamorphosed into a vehicle for his governorship quest.
Opponents of his governorship ambition say it is unfair to other parts of the state and want the Riverine-Upland power rotation.
But the way he prosecuted Jonathan’s proxy war against Amaechi and survived the groundswell of opposition from crowd of PDP governorship aspirants has conferred on him the tag of an enigma.
With four out of the state’s 32 councils, any Ikwerre governorship contestant like Wike needs the backing of the other 7 councils to form what is called the Igbo cluster.
These include Ahoada East, Ahoada West, Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Etche, Omuma, Oyigbo, and Eleme. This may give Wike 11 councils, with his Obio/Akpor council which delivers over one million votes in every election.
Peterside’s profile
First came into political radar during the Peter Odili administration as Special Adviser on Youths. Later became Commissioner for Works in Amaechi’s cabinet.
His supporters say his promise to follow Amaechi’s statecraft ”is heart-warming, reassuring and worthy of support”.
The choice of Peterside from the riverine zone is seen as a strategy to get the support of the riverine ethnic clusters marginalised since 1999.
Some believe that the support the PDP got in the presidential election on March 28 may not reflect in the governorship because there may be a bandwagon voting for a candidate of the APC which now holds the ace in Abuja.
The Amaechi factor may also count, as he has transformed the state in terms of infrastructure, health, education, and roads.
However, a snag may arise from scant riverine voting power and alienation of the Ogoni which feels shortchanged by the dropping of Magnus Abe from the governorship radar.
Ogoni is the only major ethnic group that has not ruled Rivers since its creation in 1967, despite boasting 400,000 votes against Riverine cluster’s 200,000.
If the Ogoni allow the bitterness of the loss of the governorship overtake them, they may not vote for Dakuku.
Another minus is that Dakuku is widely seen as a greenhorn and less visible politician compared to Wike.
