Since 2010, the world’s big economies have been more in political power configurations in Nigeria as shown by Correspondent, SAM NWOKORO’S analysis some perceived reasons behind this.
Elections herald a change of political leadership. And presidential elections bring about a change of the political head of any national government. Foreign nations attach varying degrees of importance to the election of any head of national government, depending on the stakes. Which is why an American president would bother about who becomes the leader of Israel or its many troublesome neighbours. In the same way, Israel worries about who emerges president after any United States presidential election: could he be a trusted Republican (GOP) – the most trusted political bloc that bothers about Israel’s security, or could he be a Democrat who would be so obsessed about unemployment numbers or warehouse stock turnover, without caring much whether Israel is being annihilated.
In fact, Washington, since the fall of communism when it fully assumed the role of global policeman, increasingly gets bothered about the composition of national governments in most parts of the world, and the type of characters in most Government Houses, especially in most African states and Middle East where secular constitutions are randomly threatened by increasing Islamic fundamentalism and their terror networks.
The eagerness by nations to deepen bilateral relations has been accelerated by competition to grow economies, tap into global investment flows, position strategically to tap into expatriate job vacancies in expanding economies, consolidate or break new frontiers in the nurturing of existing relationship and the crave for mutual alliance votes at global international organisations. Multi-lateralism and the building of as many trustable allies as possible have in recent times accelerated in international relations. An aspect of this is the global terror attacks spreading round the world, even at hitherto untouchable places as France.
Though the Middle East Arab league is traditionally known to speak with one voice at global levels in advancing Islamic faith and principles, in recent times, that solidarity has come under severe threat. They are even fighting one another. It was not like this in the 90s. At least the mistrust and confusion in that camp these days is unprecedented. These and many more factors make Nigeria a scrabble ground by many world powers.
And by their conducts in the past few years, they are no longer hiding their interests in Nigeria and who rules her, especially now. Their interests in Nigeria, their agenda, their long and short term priorities and the levels of their individual bilateral engagements in Nigeria vary one from another.
TheNiche’s study of these interests, country by country, reveal: that Nigeria is indeed worth scrambling for engagement in view of her economic fundamentals and human capacity; that these powers have intense competitions among them in the race to expand their various geo-political and economic spheres of influence; and more fundamentally, emerging economic power blocs, both North and South, have all the potentials to grow in a foreseeable future to such a level that two or three of these lesser powers coming together is capable of countering the regional influence spheres of these G8 powers individually.
Thus from the above, it is not much a surprise by observers of global politics that Nigeria’s presidential election qualifies for their interest. Here is a summary of these powers’ stake in Nigeria, both in the short and long run and why they are interested in who rules Nigeria.
United States
Washington has, for a long time, been Nigeria’s foremost ally. Aside the wide range of her economic interests in Nigeria, her interaction with Nigerian political processes, notwithstanding the jargons about non-interference has been most auspicious and beneficial in Nigeria’s democratic evolutionary process, especially since the return to democratic rule in 1999. She mediated effectively in the dark days of military dictatorship in Nigeria, helped stave off political crises that had all the capacity of crippling Nigeria permanently, and helped pressure former Head of State, Abdusalami Abubakar, to hand over power to a democratically-elected government.
As the transition to democracy improved after the passage of Gen. Sani Abacha, Washington removed visa embargo placed on Nigerians, both official and unofficial, set the step for other nations to renew engagement with Africa’s most populous country.
The Big Sam also increased high level visits to Nigeria and discussed future assistance to the country, most of which were honoured at both formal and informal levels through her embassy in Nigeria, United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other multilateral platforms.
She placed Nigeria in the class of “vital national interest” certification on counter-narcotic few months after the return to democratic rule, and this paved the way for re-establishment of closer ties between both countries as key partners in Africa. An estimated one million Nigerians and Nigeria-Americans live, study and work in the U.S., while over 25,000 U.S. citizens live and work in Nigeria.
U.S. Global Leadership Report released in Washington in 2012 stated that 77 per cent of Nigerians approve of U.S. global leadership, with nine per cent disapproving, and 14 per cent uncertain. As at 2014, U.S. exports to Nigeria stood at 5,924.3 million dollars while it imported goods worth $3.842 billion with trade balance of $2.082 billion.
However, Washington’s strategic interests, which transcends core businesses investments in the crucial sectors of Nigerian economy are such that the mutual benefits that flow both ways and cannot be quantified in monetary terms with exactitude. Thus it is the view of diplomatic observers that given these obvious stakes in Nigeria’s economic, political and social status, coupled with the size of the economy, Nigeria’s population and current investment flows, the country is so big for Washington to overlook, hence who rules Nigeria and how her leaders emerge is of concern to her.
United Kingdom
Nigeria, United Kingdom’s second largest trading partner after South Africa, is a member of Commonwealth of Nations – an association of former British colonies. Trade flow between both countries is estimated at £8 billion as at 2014, although there is trade imbalance in favour of Britain from where Nigerians import a range of goods.
The search for trade balance between Nigeria and UK was recently reported to be the main issue discussed at the recent Greater London Business Conference on Nigeria which held at the imperial Royal National Hotel in London. With the theme, ‘Nigeria in the MINT’, the conference, which was organised by Nigerian London Business Forum (NILOBF), in conjunction with the Nigerian High Commission in London and the British High Commission in Nigeria, x-rayed the Nigerian economic horizon and the present level of investment flows, coupled with other macro-economic initiatives of the current administration which it believed were holistic enough to trigger growth in very short term, and concluded that Nigeria is already near a developed economy status in the category of Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
Observers of international affairs believe that UK would be miffed by any power up-staging her in the internal affairs of her former colonies in the Commonwealth. Yet there is the general perception in Nigeria, in fact Africa, that London had since lost the moral compass and political clout to fundamentally influence things, not least political processes in most of her former colonies, Nigeria inclusive, given the perilous conditions under which she left most of them.
“Most of the countries Britain colonised, if you observe carefully, have remained underdeveloped because of the British colonial greed that did not take into consideration the future progress of her former colonies. It was as if the period of liberation of the 40s to 70s took her by surprise. She felt she could colonise the world indefinitely,” according to Professor Chinweizu Ibekwe.
Thus it would not be surprising that Britain would want to use Nigeria’s election to pull her ‘weight’ around, though Nigeria’s elite had come to the real fact that Britain’s adventure in Nigeria had never helped the country, or is in fact the cause of all of the country’s social and political trajectories. No matter the prevailing viewpoint, Britain would naturally bother that the upcoming elections do not lead to Nigeria breaking up, since that would imply a split of her constituency. That, to observers, account for why European Union (EU) election observers usually outnumber every other observer group at any election in any former British colony.
Japan
Japan is another country that has been witnessing beneficial trade relations with Nigeria. Although Nigeria has been a major customer of Japanese produce, mainly electrical and electronic equipment, Nigeria has always remained attractive to Japan because of oil which the latter desperately searches for. Nigeria presents best option for reliable petroleum needs, given the difficulty of processing and producing shale oil or other fossil alternatives. That could be chiefly why she is interested in Nigeria’s relations.
Japan is an industrial power which recently pledged to help fight global terrorism by pledging $200 million to the global effort in Kenya recently. She wants to be recognised in the wider world as one willing to take responsibility. She also seeks to establish regional influence in Africa as much as possible, given its new status as the third richest economy in the world today.
France
The Republic of France has formidable relations with Nigeria. Like every other European country, France recognises Nigeria as a regional power. French companies liter Nigeria’s business scene. For instance, Total is French giant in the oil industry, a major government partner.
The meeting of President Goodluck Jonathan and President Francois Hollande of France in Abuja last year witnessed the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a $170 million power financing deal between the Federal Ministry of Finance and Agence France Development (AFD) as well as a 13-megawatt solar power construction deal between Osun State government and Vergenet Groupe, a French energy firm.
China
China has become one of the world’s hot spots some developing countries now prefer to do, especially small, business with. Some nations with huge populations like China are copying Chinese model of development. Nigeria and China currently maintain about the highest level of commercial relations in the Asian continent.
No doubt, China’s ever-increasing presence in Nigeria’s economy today from oil and gas to construction in virtually all parts of the country tags so close only to Washington’s volume of business in Nigeria today, hence election in Nigeria matters to her. A politically stable and economically invigorated Nigeria serves its long term purpose, considering the networth of her investments in Nigeria in the past few years.
Germany
A German trade delegation recently visited Nigeria in August last year where many trade agreements were signed. The trade delegation was led by the country’s head of Chamber of Commerce. Germany is already neck deep into Nigeria’s economy: from construction to building industrial parks.
She has most of the big road construction projects in Nigeria. Germany is handling, till date, Africa’s biggest infrastructure project, the second Niger Bridge, under Public-Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement. A stable Nigeria of any form is in the interest of Nigeria and Germany’s long term business interest.
Canada
Canada played active role during the dark days of Nigerian dictatorship. She mediated and also obeyed the international community in imposing sanctions on Nigeria, and followed suit in lifting it when normalcy returned. Canada has a mutually beneficial trade relation with Nigeria and an increasing number of Nigerians regularly shop for their education in Canada. She also sees Nigeria as a regional power in Africa.
