One single breath may be all that is needed for the All Progressives Congress (APC) to implode into factions when the eighth National Assembly (NASS) is inaugurated on Tuesday, June 9.
Party leaders are divided in the choice of Bukola Saraki and Ahmed Lawan for the Senate presidency, and Yakubu Dogara and Femi Gbajabiamila for House of Representatives speakership.
Meetings and tactics
A meeting planned by the APC leadership with its new lawmakers in the Senate and House of Representatives on Thursday, June 4 was shelved because it got feelers that the gathering would be disrupted by those who suspected that Lawan and Gbajabiamila were going to be imposed on them.
Slippery numbers
The rule of the NASS is for members to elect their leaders from among themselves. The APC has 59 senators out of the total 109 members in the Upper Chamber, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has 49. A difference of 10.
In the House of Representatives of 360 members, the APC has a comfortable majority of more than 214 members, the PDP (about 130). The Labour Party (LP), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and Accord Party (AP) share the remaining seats.
It is almost certain that the APC will produce the leadership of the House of Representatives, given its huge margin against the PDP in the Lower Chamber (a gap of more than 80 members). But there is no certainty it can do so in the Senate.
The APC has a slim majority of 10 in the Senate. If its ranks are divided between Saraki and Lawan, and the PDP puts all its votes in one basket, it could carry the day.
PDP factor
TheNiche exclusively reported on May 17 that a bloc in the APC which supports Saraki may vote for Andy Ubah, a PDP member, if it feels shortchanged by the party.
There are also reports that the PDP has directed its members to take advantage of the rift in the APC and give former Senate President David Mark a bloc vote.
Tinubu’s argument for merit
According to sources, the APC leadership had planned to impose Lawan and Gbajabiamila on the lawmakers.
Bola Tinubu, a national leader of the party, is believed to be the architect of the imposition. He had earlier overruled APC National Chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun, on zoning, saying merit should prevail.
It is believed that Tinubu used the argument as a decoy to impose Lawan (North East) and Gbajabiamila (South West) on the NASS, even though the South West already has the vice presidency.
Warning shot from lawmakers
But some APC lawmakers-elect under the aegis of Eighth Assembly Consolidation Group (EACG) warned the leadership to stop rocking the party.
A statement issued by the legislators – who include Ahman Pategi, Zakari Mohammed, Babangida Mahuta, Aishat Dukku, Haliru Jika, and Jagaba Adams – reminded the party leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari’s stand on the liberty of the NASS to choose its leaders.
It added: “We wish to draw the attention of our great party, the … APC and Nigerians to certain unethical and un-democratic moves by some desperate party leaders who are bent on subverting the … procedure on the emergence of the speaker of the eight Assembly in accordance with the House Standing Orders and the Constitution ….
“We must commend … Buhari … for his statesmanship and principled stand that the business of the National Assembly leadership should be the sole responsibility of senators and members who are at liberty to regulate and throw up their leaders according to the Constitution … which he swore to protect.
“It is, however, disturbing that certain individuals are poised on disregarding the presidential declaration and forging ahead to manipulate our party to conduct an unconstitutional shadow election for speakership which is alien to the Constitution and all conventional parliamentary practices.
“The idea is to force a preferred candidate on the party hierarchy and members via intimidation and financial inducements by a certain party leader.
“For the avoidance of doubt, the APC is a party built on the principle of change. We cannot allow our young party to be short changed by selfish power mongers who would stop at nothing to throw the collective sweat of Nigerians invested in the APC to ruins and waste.
“Nigerians deserve a better deal.
“Any leadership that is orchestrated outside the hallow chambers is not only an aberration but an insult to our cherished parliamentary tradition and we will be seen as a laughing stock before the developed democracies which we are copying.
“Finally, we want to reiterate that the Eighth Assembly Consolidation Group would resist any attempt to abuse our collective psyche by conducting our affairs outside the hallow Chambers.
“We would continue to be committed to the ideals of our party, the APC and the administration of … Buhari.”
The position of the EACG, it was learnt, forced the APC to call off the meeting on June 4 and reschedule it for Saturday, June 6 in order to do more horse trading in selling its candidates to the lawmakers.
Saraki warns against interference
But Saraki insisted that anything short of allowing the NASS to choose its leadership will result in a crisis.
His words: “We saw in 1999 what happened, there was no stability. The only time the Senate and House of Representatives have been stable is when they are allowed to pick who they want.
“Now, the news is in the Senate and House of Reps. But after June 9, you are all going to move to something else, like cabinet, and leave us to our own issues.
“So, if you leave us and we are in a situation where this is not what we want, there will be a crisis. It is better that the senators or members of the House of Reps pick who they want because they will be better composed and there will be stability.
“It is that stability and cooperation that the National Assembly needs to perform properly in giving support to the executive and pushing some of these agendas that we want to give to the Nigerian people.
“So, definitely, it is in the best interest of everybody, the party can advise and guide.”
Opposition to Tinubu’s influence
TheNiche learnt that the lawmakers are opposed to the party’s choice of Lawan and Gbajabiamila mainly because of Tinubu’s overbearing influence in the APC.
“His choice has become the choice of the party. This is what the senators and House of Representative members are avoiding,” said Abdulaziz Ibrahim, a lawyer based in Kaduna.
“If the leadership of the APC does not steer clear of National Assembly politics, it may meet a rude shock. Don’t forget that it took only one man (former House Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal) to commence the ruin of Jonathan.”
