With enthusiastic recruits from the South, the groundswell of opposition against President Goodluck Jonathan by the triad of Northern leaders – political, religious and traditional – may make it hard for him to win the ballot next year, even if he gets the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Unless he takes practical steps fast to make amends, the dented image of Nigeria in international eyes over the failure to rescue the schoolgirls kidnapped by Boko Haram may also play against him.
Campaigners for Jonathan
The office of presidential special adviser on political matters located on the second floor, section C of Bullet House, federal secretariat, Abuja has always been a beehive of activity from the days of its former occupant, Ahmed Gulak.
The office, now manned by former PDP National Publicity Secretary, Rufai Alkali, receives both high and low profile visitors daily.
The visitors are mainly leaders of various groups campaigning for Jonathan.
In the days of Gulak, many of such visitors who called to express desire to work for the Jonathan project, in exchange for financial assistance for their programmes, were told to go and make some noise in the media first.
Some complied. Others who did not possess the wherewithal fizzled out.
But those who invested in the project may be in for a surprise.
High wire conspiracy; Northeners recruit Southeners
Reliable sources disclosed to TheNiche that there is a high wire conspiracy by Northern PDP leaders to stop Jonathan from seeking re-election next year by all means. One is litigation.
Northern PDP leaders, in league with Southern collaborators, plan to go to court the moment Jonathan publicly declares his intension to run for a second term.
Their plank is that the PDP constitution does not allow for the same person to be presented for the office of president three times.
They also rely on the Nigerian Constitution which states that no one should serve as president for more than eight years.
Jonathan became vice president on the joint ticket with the late Umaru Yar’Adua, who won election in 2007.
He first became acting president in February 2010 when Yar’Adua took ill and became substantive president upon his death in May 2010.
Jonathan won election in his own right in 2011.
If he wins the vote next year he would have served for more than nine years when his second term expires in May 2019.
Potential legal minefield
According to sources, the major arguments the anti-Jonathan camp will present in court include
• The PDP can no longer present Jonathan as its presidential candidate, having previously presented him in the 2007 and 2011 elections.
• Since the ballot is for the party, the opinion that Jonathan merely served out Yar’Adua’s tenure from 2010 and 2011 does not stand because Sections 138 and 146(1) and (2) of the Constitution are clear on the issue.
• The court judgment that declared him qualified is neither here nor there because no political party can present the same person for president three times.
Other arguments the group intends to present in court include
• “The PDP 2007 mandate, was it interrupted or served out by the party’s candidates so elected? Yes, they served out the term.
• “Was the ballot for an individual or the political party? It was for the political party, not an individual.
• “Therefore, can it be said that Jonathan served out Yar’Adua’s tenure? If yes, was the joint Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket an independent candidate or sponsored by the PDP? They were sponsored by the PDP to discharge its mandate for the office of president.
• “At this point, the needful needs to be asked and that is, what was the mind of the Constitution in its statement that one ballot is for the president/vice president?
• “Is it not one office with two occupants performing one function, though one is head? Was the Constitution not clear in Section 142(1) on who should sustain a mandate when one of the two is no longer available?
• “Was the PDP 2007 mandate not served out by its second candidate under the joint ticket?
• “Was the same candidate not presented a second time during the 2011 presidential election, which the PDP won, and the same candidate sworn-in and is to this date discharging the party’s mandate as expressed by Nigerians?
• “Therefore can the PDP present Jonathan as its presidential candidate a third time for the 2015 presidential election? Was the 2007 presidential mandate interrupted?
• “Was there a presidential bye election envisaged in Section 146(2) of the Constitution, if it was interrupted? No. Can any president of Nigeria exceed the tenure maximum of eight years? No.
• “Does the Constitution provide for independent candidacy? No. Every candidate must be sponsored by a political party, therefore the ballot and mandate are for the party, not an individual.”
Obasanjo, others recruited for the cause
The group is reportedly recruiting national leaders and former rulers of the country to back its cause.
Sources said former President Olusegun Obasanjo is part of the anti-Jonathan conspiracy. He has pitched publicly that Jigawa State Governor, Sule Lamido, is the best qualified for the PDP presidential ticket.
TheNiche reported exclusively on Sunday, July 20 that Lamido has unofficially launched his bid for Aso Rock with branded campaign vehicles spotted in Jigawa proclaiming his readiness to run.
There are also posters in Kaduna State bearing his name and picture proclaiming his ambition.
He is also said to have approached allies in the South to take up appointments in his campaign organisation.
Even some members of the PDP national leadership are said to have been recruited into the anti-Jonathan plot
Obasanjo is believed to be involved in identifying those who will work with Lamido in the South.
They reportedly advised that the campaign be executed with tact because Jonathan may work against the PDP if he detects betrayal by his own party leaders.
Those who are in on the game have therefore decided to strike only at the last minute when it will be difficult for Jonathan to fight back.
Complaints by Northern leaders
Northern political, religious and traditional leaders complain regularly that the region has been marginalised by the Jonathan administration.
One of them, Maitama Sule, lamented while receiving members of the Arewa Youth Development Foundation who visited him in Kano that the North has never had it so bad.
He said: “We need this Nigeria to remain one but of course we are prepared for any eventuality at any time. The Northern part of this country since independence, and indeed before Independence, has been playing a positive role in trying to make sure that Nigeria remains one. We don’t regret that.
“We have played that part in the past and we are quite ready to play the same role in the future, without compromising our own interest.”
Grouse over national conference
Northern leaders also hold a grouse against Jonathan over the national conference which ended on July 17.
They complained through the Sultan of Sokoto, Abubakar Sa’ad, about what they regarded as the lopsided appointment of conference delegates in which the North had 192 and the South 300.
When the list of delegates was released in March, the Sultan led other Northern traditional rulers to see Jonathan.
“During that visit, the Sultan and other respected rulers drew the attention of Jonathan to that injustice. The president gave them his word that he would look into their complaint but that promise was never kept,” said another Northern politician who pleaded not to be named.
Northern traditional and religious leaders are said to be more resolute in the battle against Jonathan than the political class. These days, many of them decline invitations to see Jonathan in Abuja.
Ahmed Gumi, son of the late Islamic cleric, Abubakar Gumi, refused to be part of Northern leaders who visited Jonathan for the breaking of Ramadan fast on Tuesday, July 22.
Ahmed, a retired Colonel, reportedly told friends that he turned down the invitation to avoid being drawn into a verbal exchange with Jonathan.
Jonathan in the wider world
Jonathan’s worries may have extended to the international arena where Western leaders have become hostile to him.
Most of them have almost written Nigeria off, especially over the failure to rescue the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram on April 14.
United States Senator, John McCain, told CNN: “We should have utilised every asset that we have, satellite, drones, any capabilities that we had to go after them.
“We didn’t have to wait until a practically non-existent government of Nigeria gave us the go-ahead before mounting a humanitarian effort to rescue those 276 abducted girls.”
Alkali was said not to be in the office when TheNiche visited on Thursday, July 24.
Efforts to speak with him also failed, as several calls to his mobile telephone line were not answered.
He did not respond to text messages, either.
