I was in Sokoto State recently in continuation of my assessment tour of some states of the federation to determine, or at least come close to determining how the states would vote in 2015. My choice of Sokoto state is understandable. The state presents an intriguing scenario. It is a state to watch. It is the state where the political icon of the state, Alhaji Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa, who was governor of the state from 1999 to 2007 and the incumbent governor, Alhaji Aliyu Wamakko, are practically at war over the control of the state. Bafarawa and Wamakko once worked together as governor and deputy governor respectively until they fell apart. But on completion of his tenure, Bafarawa was set to hand over to his anointed candidate. But the Obasanjo presidency, in order to shore up its support base, invaded Sokoto state. Wamakko became the beneficiary of the political invasion. Since he emerged as governor in 2007, there has been no love lost between Wamakko and his former boss. Wamakko has been fighting spiritedly to consolidate his hold on power. Bafarawa, on his part, is working hard to regain the political control of the state. This is the scenario before us.
Before now, Wamakko was having a good laugh, having risen to power with the backing of the Presidency. He continued to enjoy that presidential support and cover until recently. Wamakko had, in a fit of miscalculation, left the party that made him- the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He joined other rebel governors who do not want President Goodluck Jonathan to return to power in 2005. This singular act of Wamakko is the beginning of his problem. It has cost him Presidential cover and he is now exposed from all flanks.
Bafarawa, as patient as ever, has been bidding his time. He has been making his calculations. Fortunately, Wamakko has paved the way for him to take over Sokoto again. As an influential politician with a large support base, Bafarawa has always had what it takes to win elections in Sokoto state. But because the presidency did not give him a chance, things did not quite go as expected. Now, the table has turned. Wamakko, the presidential favourite, has lost favour. He is now swimming against the tide. His political survival is therefore no longer guaranteed.
As I traversed Sokoto recently, I was able to put the political situation in the state in a better perspective. It is clear to the people of the state that Wamakko is losing grounds owing to his recent defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The APC as a political platform is still being tested. It is not popular yet. Besides, the manner of Wamakko’s entry into it is considered by many as opportunistic. The impression out there is that Wamakko set out to reap where he did not sow. That was why he schemed to edge out Bafarawa who was a major arrowhead of the party at national level and who was, indisputably, the leader of the party in Sokoto State. Bafarawa, the people would tell you, worked very hard to ensure that APC stood in Sokoto State. How can you then wake up one morning to see a defecting Wamakko taking over Bafarawa’s sweat.? That was the question. They consider such a scenario unjust and untidy. A good many of them are therefore happy with Bafarawa for being man enough and for answering his father’s name instead of suffering in silence. For the people therefore, Bafarawa’s decision to join the PDP is a wise decision. They are commending him for his foresight and the principled ones among them have vowed to swim along with him. This is the turning point we are talking about. It will bring about a change. The change is imminent. It is looming.
But in all of this, the Wamakko people are applying a certain defense mechanism. They say they are still popular and will win the 2015 elections. This is in spite of the fact that their optimism is not supported by the facts on the ground. What we hear them say now is that the presidency is gearing up to give the state to PDP. They seem to forget that Sokoto, at moment, is a PDP state. The fact that the state governor left for APC does not make the state an APC state. Apparently afraid of the looming change, some of them are saying they will resist any attempt to install a PDP governor in 2015.
However, for indecent observers, there may not be any attempt by the presidency to swing the votes in favour of the PDP. The mood of the people already supports the PDP. The people seem to be encouraged the more by their leader, Bafarawa whose strength of character is direly needed in trying times such as this.
Observers usually suspect something when situations are like this. Blackmail can be an instrument of defense. It can be used for purposes of consolation. It appears to be the latest arsenal in the hands of the APC in Sokoto. They want to cry wolf where there is none. They started this trick sometime ago when they tried to blackmail Bafarawa for joining the PDP. They wanted Bafarawa to look bad in the eyes of the public. But that did not work because their own man, Wamakko, was equally a defector. He left PDP for APC. That alone weakened the argument of Bafarawa’s opponents. Their agenda had to collapse like a pack of cards. Then they moved on to other issues. They wanted the public to believe that Bafarawa is overbearing and wants to lead all the time.
For those who know the issues, these people are beating about the bush. They are not addressing the real factors of Sokoto politics. The real issues are as follows. There is going to be a battle of supremacy between Bafarawa and Wamakko in 2015. Each party concerned should sit back and do its home work. Each should strategise on how to win the election. From what we can see, Bafarawa and his group are working hard to carry the day. We do not see much of propaganda from their end. This is an indication of seriousness. On the contrary, the Wamakko group seems to be fixated about Bafarawa. He is their whipping boy. They see him as their problem. They have therefore stopped at nothing to blackmail him. This does not show seriousness and focus on the side of the Wamakko group.
As the elections approach, we advise Wamakko and his group to change their approach to politics in Sokoto State. If they continue to make Bafarawa the issue, the people of Sokoto State will have no choice but to reject the APC and all it stands for at the polls. A word, they say, is enough for the wise.
As for Bafarawa and his group, we encourage them to remain focused. Those who are crying wolf will discover, sooner or later, that propaganda cannot win the heart of the people. It can only make them to become more wary of the ways of those who deceive them.
Igurube, a public policy analyst, contributed this piece from Abuja.
