Senior Correspondent, ISHAYA IBRAHIM, looks at this week’s National Assembly election in areas that are too close to call and attempts prediction of likely winners.
With the presidential and National Assembly (NASS) elections barely some days ahead, pictures of titanic battle among contenders for the Senate and House of Representatives are emerging in some states in the country. The contest, however, seems to be more pronounced in the Senate where some members who are angling for return are expected to encounter stiff challenge with known names that appear bent on sweeping them off the Red Chambers.
In Benue State, for instance, Senate President, David Mark, is seeking a return to the chamber he has been in for the last 16 years. It is estimated that he may have a smooth sail in the election against the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Daniel Onjeh, who was former president of the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS).
Analysts say Onjeh does not have the financial war chest and political connections to dislodge Mark, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate. Mark has been a senator since 1999 and Senate president in the last eight years. If he wins again, and in the event that President Goodluck Jonathan also gets re-elected, Mark may retain his Senate presidency position, for a record 12 years.
Several factors may work for the victory of Mark at the poll, notably the yearning for the creation of Apa State by his Idoma tribesmen. Though it is constitutionally difficult to achieve that (two-third of the National Assembly must first approve, then two-third of the Houses of Assembly endorse), Mark has boosted his campaign by harping on that promise. And since he stands the higher chance of retaining his Senate presidency seat if Jonathan gets re-elected, his people might be comfortable at re-electing him than a rookie senator.
In Benue North Senatorial district, barring any last minute upset, analysts say Barnabas Gemade, a founding member of the PDP, now an APC senatorial candidate in this Saturday’s National Assembly election, may overrun Governor Gabriel Suswam of the PDP.
Pita Ochai, a journalist from the state, said the failure of the Suswam administration to pay five months’ salary areas of civil servants, plus primary school teachers who have been on strike for more than one year, would be the deciding factor in the election.
In the Benue North-West senatorial district, incumbent Senator George Akume of the APC may coast home to victory against his PDP challenger, Mike Mku.
Akume had in 2011, on the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), a party with no known structure in the state, trounced the PDP’s Terngu Tsegba. He polled 261,726 votes, while Tsegba garnered 143,354 votes. So, his popularity is not in doubt in the senatorial district.
Ochai predicts that Akume would, in this election, reenact his 2011 exploit with greater intensity.
Anambra
Anambra Central senatorial zone presents a delicate scenario for Chris Ngige of the APC, and his challenger, Victor Umeh of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The PDP, which is also in the contest, is unlikely to pull any weight in this tight contest, as it is embroiled in controversy over who really is its candidate. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognised Annie Okonkwo as its candidate, but Uche Ekwenife is in court challenging his recognition.
Ngige holds sway in the zone, winning the elections to the Senate in the area since 2007 on the ticket of the defunct ACN, a not-too-visible-party in the South East.
But Umeh, the APGA chief, wants to end Ngige’s domination of the zone’s politics.
Umeh has a chance of causing an upset, since his party is in power in the state. And as national chairman of APGA, he has enormous clout and political contacts to make impression.
But whatever impression APC and APGA may make in the election, it is likely to be limited to Anambra Central. Developments in the other two zones remain open to APGA and PDP.
Kaduna
In Kaduna State, the political mood seems to be favouring the APC, except for Kaduna South where the elections have always been dominated by the PDP. The PDP is likely to retain its dominance of the area.
However, former Governor Ahmed Makarfi representing Kaduna North since 2007 may be facing the first tight contest since he became a senator. He is up against Suleiman Hunkuyi, a former finance commissioner under the Makarfi administration.
In 2011, Hunkuyi’s last minute support for Patrick Yakowa changed the political arithmetic in favour of the late governor. Though Kaduna has a history of voting along religious lines, Hunkuyi delivered majority of the votes in his Kudan local government, a majority Muslim area, to the governor, a Christian.
He had been one of the backbones of Makarfi’s victory to the Senate. Now that he wants his boss’ job, it remains to be seen whether his clout extends beyond Kudan.
Kaduna-based human rights activist, Shehu Sani, who defeated the serving senator representing Kaduna Central, General Sani Saleh, to clinch the Senate ticket of the APC, may have a smooth-sail against the PDP candidate, Ahmed Aruwa. Sani is seen as close to the Talakawas (the poor) who form a large percentage of the voting population.
Lagos
In Lagos State, the PDP is determined to end the era of APC domination of the state’s politics. The APC currently controls all elective offices, including council chairmen. But this election may throw a different mix, given the renewed upsurge of the PDP and its aggressive campaigns.
In the contest for the Lagos West senatorial seat, Solomon Adeola of APC, fondly called ‘Yayi’ by his admirers, seems to have the most robust campaign. His opponent in the PDP, Segun Adewale, trails behind in posters visibility and political roadshow. However, the election is likely not to be won on merits of the individual candidates, but the popularity of their parties – PDP and APC – among Lagosians.
In Lagos Central, incumbent Senator Oluremi Tinubu of APC faces former PDP governorship candidate in the 2011 election, Ade Dosumu. Both candidates are popular. But like most of the elections in Lagos, the winner may also be determined by the enthusiasm of the electorate towards the APC and PDP and not necessarily on what the individual candidates have on offer.
Bayelsa
Political watchers also have their gaze on Bayelsa State. Aside the Bayelsa East Senatorial District, the contest in the two other zones is as good as PDP’s.
The peculiarity of Bayelsa East is hinged on the popularity of the contestants, former Governor Timipre Sylva of the APC and media magnate, Ben Murray-Bruce of the PDP. Sylva has grassroots support from his people, having served as governor where it is believed that he used his office to procure goodwill for himself. This may be payback time.
But his challenger, Murray-Bruce, has the advantage of platform since he is contesting under the same party as President Jonathan.
Jonathan, who is from Bayelsa, is sure to garner more votes in the state than Muhammadu Buhari of the APC. The sympathy for Jonathan’s re-election may therefore rub off on Bruce’s candidature.
Ogun
Going by the strength of the three leading political parties in the National Assembly election in Ogun State, analysts are unsure how the pendulum will swing on Saturday. The parties are the ruling APC, PDP and new entrant Social Democratic Party (SDP).
All the incumbent senators in the state are now card-carrying members of the SDP after defecting from the APC on which platform they got into office.
In Ogun West, the APC fielded Gbolahan Dada against PDP’s Waliu Taiwo. The incumbent Senator Akin Odunsi is not seeking re-election.
In Ogun Central, the contest is largely between incumbent Senator Gbenga Obadan of the SDP, Olanrewaju Tejuoso of the APC and Abisola Sodipo of the PDP.
In Ogun East, the contest is between incumbent Gbenga Kaka of the SDP, Buruji Kashamu of the PDP and Dapo Abiodun of the APC.
Adamawa
Of all the coming elections in the North East, the one in Adamawa poses a serious difficulty for bookmakers to predict. Adamawa, save for the defection of its former governor, Murtala Nyako, to the opposition APC, has always been in the hands of the PDP.
In this election, the Boko Haram insurgency, Atiku Abubakar’s defection to the APC and Nyako’s impeachment as governor of the state may play decisive roles in the voting behaviour of the people.
In Adamawa South, PDP’s Jonathan Zwingina is up against APC’s Ahmadu Abubakar. In Adamawa Central, former Minister of State for Health, Idi Hong, of the PDP is up against Abdulazeez Nyako of the APC. In the Adamawa North, Governor Bala Ngilari of the PDP wants to displace Binta Garba of the APC.
