Senior Correspondent, ISHAYA IBRAHIM, examines the chances of Muhammadu Buhari, a retired Major General, in clinching the APC’s presidential ticket, and squaring up against President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015
On October 15, former head of state, Muhammadu Buhari, formally threw his hat into the ring to contest the 2015 presidential election, making it his fourth attempt since 2003.
And his chances of clinching the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the platform on which he hopes to actualise his ambition, are pretty high, given the quality of attendance at the Eagle Square, Abuja, venue of the declaration.
Four APC governors – Tanko Al-Makura (Nasarawa), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Adams Oshiomhole (Edo) and Babatunde Fashola (Lagos) – attended the rally, which was graced by APC’s glitterati, including Bola Tinubu, George Akume, Audu Ogbeh, Olorunnimbe Mamora, Timipre Sylva, Babafemi Ojudu and a huge crowd of Buhari’s enthusiasts.
Notwithstanding Buhari’s bright chances, he faces formidable opposition in former Vice President Atiku Abubakar over the APC’s presidential ticket.
On popularity contest, Buhari seems to have the number, given his track record of election losses in the hitherto disorderly opposition parties where he ran for president.
With the APC having structures in all the 36 states of the federation, plus Abuja, the 2015 election will be a tough fight with him on board.
For instance, in the 2011 election, Buhari garnered 12,214,853, votes against Jonathan’s 22,495,187. Then, his party, the defunct Congress of Progressive Change (CPC), was less than a year old in registration, had no sitting governor, and completely without structures in all the South East and South South states.
With the hindsight of 2011 election where his supporters went violent on hearing that he lost, he is certainly a politician which cannot easily be rigged out.
But his hurdle is the APC’s ticket, which Atiku, it is believed, has an incredible war chest to sway many of the delegates that will be voting in the presidential primary to his side.
Being a politician to the core, given his political experience, especially as former vice president, his deep pocket, ability to influence the party and, if need be, buy up party delegates, Atiku remains Buhari’s obstacle to the APC’s ticket.
There is also the Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who has the advantage of age on his side in the contest for the APC presidential ticket.
Kwankwaso, 58, is serving his second term as governor after his re-election bid was truncated in 2003 by Education Minister, Ibrahim Shekarau, whose winning formula was to exploit Buhari’s popularity to his advantage.
Kwankwanso was appointed as the Minister of Defence in President Olusegun Obasanjo’s cabinet in 2003. In 2007, he was appointed as the Presidential Special Envoy to Somalia and Darfur after losing his bid to contest the 2007 governorship election due to a Kano State Government White Paper that banned him from doing so.
He has established himself as a rugged politician, analysts said, adding that with age on his side, he could be a good candidate for the APC against President Jonathan.
There is also the publisher of Leadership newspapers, Sam Nda-Isaiah, for the APC ticket, though many consider him not strong enough to reckon with, as he seems to lack the financial muscle required of such contest.
But others have rated Isaiah’s chances high, given that he is a Northern Christian.
But some analysts believe that Buhari remains APC’s best choice. Chukwuemeka Anene, an Abuja-based public affairs analyst, said: “Honestly, if Buhari picks Fashola or even Oshiomhole as running mate, then 2015 presidential elections will really go down the wire.
“Buhari surely has the APC ticket, no doubt about that; but the real thing is who he pairs with. PDP will be hoping he goofs in that area. I also think the man has a lot to offer Nigeria; if not for anything, he has demonstrated his sincerity and shown steady character never seen in any Nigerian politician. I wish him well.”
Former Minister of Petroleum, Professor Tam David-West, believes that Buhari remains the best choice for Nigeria in 2015, though he is 71 years old.
His words: “Buhari is very young. What age was (Ronald) Reagan when he ran for president of America? What age was (Nelson) Mandela when he became president of South Africa? They are afraid of Buhari because he will stamp out corruption in this country.
“Mandela was older than Buhari when he became president of South Africa. Age has nothing to do with this. Julius Caesar became the head of the Roman Empire at the age of 18. And my own grandfather, David-West, was head of the David-West family at the age of 18. What of (Yakubu) Gowon? (Alfred) Diette-Spiff was governor of Rivers State when he was in his 20s. What are we even saying? Jonathan is a young man; what has he done?”
