It will be weeks, perhaps months, before the political parties conclude their post election analyses: What happened, how and why.
But we can state for sure that success does not just happen; success is a product of intuition, intellect and quality actions.
The combined effects of private and public developments formed the basis of the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and its flag-bearer, Muhammadu Buhari; against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and its candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan.
Many PDP stalwarts doubt the fact that the party is over, despite Mr president saying so.
After being in power for 16 years, electoral victory was taken as given without considering the high duty that goes with it. That is one lesson the APC must bear in mind. Indeed, success and failure evolve over time. Again, there is karma that predates present time.
But then events can mature or retard a person suddenly, depending on the mindset one brings to bear; and so Jonathan matured in the aftermath of the March 28 election, and deserves respect despite his rejection at the polls and the state of nation.
In three previous attempts, Buhari lost the polls and went to court and lost there, too. His victory this time would stir ripple effects in yesterday’s state Assembly elections.
For one, Jonathan would not deploy security forces to help anyone and there would be a band wagon effect from the election on March 28.
What factors led to Buhari’s victory?
First is the merger of opposition forces, and second is introduction of the card reader. The merger formed the basis for the balance of power.
Buhari entered the arena in 2003 and ignited high winds that observers tagged Hurricane Buhari. But repeatedly, it fizzled out with the dramatic 2011 race after which the General wept for Nigeria and called it quits.
However, Tony Momoh, who became the Chairman of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), said the matter was not over.
He called his then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) counterpart, Bisi Akande, early in 2013 and asked him to reach out to ACN leader, Bola Tinubu, and tell him that the PDP could be beaten and a merger of the opposition parties was the secret.
Momoh had called from a hospital in Cairo, Egypt where he went for a knee surgery – the aftermath of armed robbers’ gunshots in the 90s.
He also faced eye surgery but his physical discomfort was less than the pain of watching Nigeria’s continuous slipping for 16 years in the name of nascent democracy.
Akande called back two weeks later to say his party had accepted the merger idea. A North and West alliance was not the idea; rather the sponsors wanted a pan-Nigerian movement.
Thus, Ogbonnaya Onu, first Abia State Governor and Chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP); and Rochas Okorocha, Imo State Governor and chieftain of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), responded positively.
Okorocha lacked the full backing of APGA. Therefore, the alliance was mainly of three parties – ANPP, ACN and CPC.
The general feeling, which the PDP bought, was that the merger would fail. After all, similar efforts in the past failed. Indeed, many dismissed the merger as a marriage of strange bedfellows, noting that the North and the South West had never and may never join hands politically.
This notion heightened when it was rumoured that Tinubu was insisting on running with Buhari – making it a Moslem-Moslem ticket.
In the words of Akande: “The notion that the South West and the North do not align politically may be historical but it is a myth that is now broken.
“Perhaps what both sides wanted differed much but this time what unite us are much more than what separate us.
“One thing for sure; everyone made concessions and that is the beauty of democracy – negotiate and make everyone happy.”
Onu said: “There is a sustained campaign that Igbos belong over 90 per cent to PDP. Nothing could be further from the truth.
“The propaganda that was brought into the elections in 2015 is unprecedented. Now, we have serious work to integrate the nation because Nigeria is one.”
Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who joined the opposition and was called a desperate man reaching for straw when there was nothing better to grab, said: “I contested the governorship primary and won but some power brokers said no way! At the end of the day, justice prevailed.
“Rivers State was in wreckage. I asked everyone to put the past behind, and join hands with me so that together we salvage the state, but some politicians totally opposed.
“When I showed interest in the chairmanship of the Governors Forum, campaign mounted on my colleagues. How can you allow a South South governor be your chairman when the president also hails from the region? “Later, the governors rejected the Sovereign National Fund. The Forum; not Amaechi, sued the president. It wasn’t personal. Plots to remove me and cause chaos in Rivers State were countless.
“This is time for national healing and not counting wrongs but the fact is that when I am put in a difficult corner, I react and I don’t know how many people won’t.
“My works speak for me. Anyone who denies that Rivers State is not 10 times better than I met it lives in denial. Second, equity is vital to me.”
While rejecting the notion that Buhari hates Ndigbo, Okorocha said: “Our opponents mounted that propaganda to corner the South East and South South zones. Now, the president is not going to use force to coerce voters.
“Come Saturday April 11, the world will see where public sympathy lies in places like Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Edo and Ebonyi States. That South South and South East APC senatorial and House of Representatives candidates did not win one seat was due to political brigandage.
“Despite clear flaws, Nigerians want peace and that is why we are taking things easy. Some people want crises because that is where they prosper and excel but the APC is more mature than that.”
For Akande, it was Tinubu who turned the tide against PDP. “If he tells you yes then you can count on his not looking back unless the exercise is turning futile, in which case he changes course because any right-thinking person would see the futility.
“We also owe a lot to Momoh because he started the merger. No political party would have shaken off the PDP. Even with internal decimation, the PDP was not easy to beat.
“Finally is the man of history. I call him the man of history because at his age and after three failed attempts, you have to have incredible faith to try again.
“It is true the merger made the difference but Buhari is the most charismatic Nigerian politician. He has no money; you cannot buy him nor would he think of buying anyone.
“Leadership is about integrity. When you have men of conviction who want to make a difference, you have change-agents and Nigeria needs to be born again.”
Indeed, all these efforts and more paved the road for the emergence of Buhari as President-elect and allowed Nigerians have a fresh breath of air at the national level.
• Anyamele, a journalist; and Ogbamosa, a journalist and lawyer, wrote in from Lagos.
