Editor, Politics/Features, EMEKA ALEX DURU, analyses issues that may shape 2015 politics against the backdrop of the June 21 Ekiti State governorship election…
Few days before the June 21 governorship election in Ekiti State, the governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, had described the exercise as a proxy war for 2015 poll. He had, in analysing the contest, taken into consideration heavy deployment of strategies and materials by his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), stressing that the exercise had clearly taken shape that was more than a local election.
Kayode Fayemi
Fayemi, as it eventually turned out, lost the election to former governor, Ayodele Fayose of PDP, rising beyond the trend in the country to concede defeat. That feat by the governor, in the interpretation of many, has laid to rest the tension that had preceded the election.
“That showed that the people have spoken. They were convinced that the exercise was transparent. At least, the outcome has helped douse the tension that had pervaded the state in the last couple of months,” Bolade Ojo, a resident of Ado-Ekiti, had declared.
Drawing the battle line for 2015
While Ojo and other casual interpreters of the Ekiti election are enthused at the outcome of the encounter and consequent tension in the state, perhaps, unknown to them, a quiet but defining battle line had been drawn for the 2015 general elections between the PDP and APC. Events shortly after the election gave hints to the titanic clash ahead. For example, while congratulating Fayose on his victory, President Goodluck Jonathan had reportedly told Nigerians to expect a replication of the Ekiti feat in August governorship election in Osun.
Governor Rauf Aregbesola, who is gunning for a re-election on the platform of APC, is billed to slug it out with Senator Iyiola Omisore, the PDP candidate, in Osun. Both, incidentally, are battle-tested and had created records on their journey to public reckoning. Aregbesola, in attaining his current position, had emerged from Lagos, where he was a commissioner, to dislodge a seating government of Olagunsoye Oyinlola. Omisore, on his own, had literally walked into the Senate from the prisons, where he was detained on allegations of involvement in the assassination of Bola Ige, former Justice Minister.
The two had also come a long way, at a time, being of the same political camp before going their separate ways. At the onset of the current democratic dispensation, they had been in the then Alliance for Democracy (AD). Omisore, it was said, was among the key financiers of the party. He was particularly credited with providing enormous financial support to the party at the national level as well as in his home state, Osun. On account of his pioneering role in the formation of the party, he was initially billed to be its governorship candidate. However, in deference to the relatively older Bisi Akande, who is seen to have paid great dues in promoting Yoruba interest, Omisore was prevailed to be his running mate on condition that he would take over from him after four years. Before the end of the term, the two had fallen apart, leading to the impeachment of Omisore who later crossed to PDP. It was on PDP ticket that he won his senatorial election from detention. His party, TheNiche learnt, is fielding him in the battle on account of his immense financial war chest and stubborn disposition, which, it is estimated, would not see him being intimidated by the so-called incumbency factor that may be employed by the governor and his men. Omisore is also known to have his crowd.
In similar stead, Aregbesola is not one to be dismissed by the wave of the hand. In fact, our reporter learnt that unlike Fayemi, his Ekiti counterpart, who is not strictly associated with the antics of the traditional Nigerian politician, the Osun governor is described in hushed tones as “one who can roll in the mud with his opponent in a given encounter”. This weekly was told that while serving as commissioner in Lagos, Aregbesola had the ear and attention of his principal, the then Governor Bola Tinubu, essentially on account of his bravery and commitment to duty.
It was that Spartan disposition that he was said to have brought to bear in his contest with Oyinlola, taking the battle to the judicial turf where he was eventually declared governor by the Appeal Court, presided by Justice Ayo Salami.
Since taking office over three years ago, the governor, in the estimation of his admirers, has given Osun a new shape in outlook and orientation.
His infrastructural rebirth of Osogbo, the capital, and other major cities, education reforms, moral re-orientation and people-centred governance style are among the points that are counted for him in his quest for another term. APC is said to have given him the nod for another term on account of this credential, in addition to the fact that he will not likely succumb to the so-called federal might.
Oludayo Balogun, lawyer and Osun indigene, perhaps, is right in describing the August election in the state as fundamental in determining who among the Yoruba in APC and PDP the people can really listen to when it matters most.
“That is an election that will determine who really has the ears of the people,” he declared in his Satellite Town, Lagos, office in a chat with TheNiche.
True to his prediction, PDP and APC are throwing virtually everything into the ring. Apparently buoyed by its victory in Ekiti, PDP has expressed the intention of riding into Osun with the same tactics that it employed in pulling the rug off the feet of Fayemi.
On the other hand, APC, obviously bloodied in Ekiti, is re-strategising to ensure that it does not lose Osun. Its chieftains, instructively, see the loss of Ekiti as an opportunity to rebuild. Early last week, Senator Babafemi Ojudu, who represents Ekiti Central Senatorial District, had declared that APC loss in the exercise would make its leadership look inwards and come up with a party that will subscribe to ideas and ideals.
“We have to re-organise our party. Mistakes have been made, lessons have also been learnt. It appears that a few of us who are leaders seem to be miles ahead of our people. It is time for us to build a party that will subscribe to our vision,” he posted in his social media, facebook, page on Monday, June 24.
North East as battle ground
Aside whatever may be the outcome of the Osun poll, the three North East states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe also appear veritable grounds in the build-up to 2015. The three states, which are currently ravaged by Boko Haram insurgency and are under emergency rule, belong to APC. They also have other challenges in addition to Boko Haram menace. Adamawa, for instance, has been in the news for the wrong reason for quite some time. Penultimate week, the state’s legislature moved a motion to serve an impeachment notice to the governor, Murtala Nyako, and his deputy, Bala Ngilari, accusing them of mismanagement and financial recklessness.
The governor had come to office on the ticket of PDP. Initially, he was one of the governors that were counted among the henchmen of President Jonathan, having, at a time, been appointed his honorary adviser on agriculture. Even in the run-up to the 2011 election, he played tremendous role in the presidency’s agenda at neutralisisng former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in PDP presidential primaries. While he delivered on the hatchet job for the presidency, his relationship with Jonathan swelled.
Cracks, however, began to develop between them towards the March 2012 convention of the party when Nyako, in league with his North East PDP governors, rooted for Musa Babayo, former PDP acting national secretary, for the post of national chairman. But Jonathan preferred Bamanga Tukur, governor of old Gongola State and current chairman of Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC). The president eventually had his way.
What further alienated Nyako from the intrigue-infested PDP politics was the perceived over-bearing tendencies of Tukur in supplanting the Adamawa executive of the party with his supporters. Ensuing developments in the party saw Nyako leaving the party alongside Governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara).
Nyako has, since the move, not been having the best of time with members of the House of Assembly who refused to dump PDP with him. The current impeachment axe dangling on his head is seen to be in furtherance to that impasse with Jonathan. The long term objective, we gathered, is to get him removed or thoroughly destabilised in such a way that his successor cannot emerge from his party, the APC.
Leading figures of Adamawa politics such as Tukur, Senator Jibril Aminu and Brig-Gen. Mohammed Buba Marwa are also said to have distanced themselves from the governor. Atiku is the only heavy weight in Adamawa that is known to have crossed over to APC with him. Even then, supporters of the former vice president are said to be nursing grudges with Nyako for the role he played against their principal during the 2010 PDP presidential primaries.
The heat on Yobe and Borno governors may not be of the same magnitude with Nyako. TheNiche learnt that the ravaging impact of Boko Haram in their states and their obvious helplessness in the face of the insurgency have portrayed them as lacking in capacity to provide purposeful leadership to their people.
“This is the greatest task facing the APC and its governors in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. The campaign slogan by PDP against them – assuming there will be election in those states in 2015 – will be that the APC administrations had failed the people, hence need for a change,” Sadiq Idris, a Borno indigene, confided in TheNiche during the week.
South East to the rescue?
This is a zone that ordinarily should have, as in the South West, provided a solid base for the APC. Given that the years of South East investments in Nigeria’s mainstream politics have not yielded commensurate results, there were expectations that the zone would be a ready ally in the APC arrangement. But this is not the case. Instead, politicians from the area accuse the party of not factoring the interest of South Easterners in its agenda. They allege, for instance, that in the June 14 maiden national convention of the party, the only tangible position allotted to the zone was that of National Organising Secretary.
“What type of insult is that? So, the only thing they think the Igbo man deserves in their party is that of buying drinks and renting chairs any time they have functions? Is that how they want us to support them? We will show them in 2015,” fumed a member of the party from Anambra who pleaded not to be mentioned.
APC, incidentally, is not rated at the same level with PDP and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the area. Tayo Sowunmi, National Vice Chairman of APGA, in an interview with our correspondent, said: “APC has no place in the South East. All that you are hearing is mere noise. Go to the South East and you will see that APC is not on ground. They (APC top shots) are just using the media to hype their publicity.”
APGA, as it were, is not known to be fielding presidential candidates except on one or two instances in the past. There are also no indications of the party doing so in 2015, thus, leaving the zone open for PDP.
Silver lining for APC
Even with its supporters obviously struggling to downplay its poor outing in Ekiti, APC is still seen by many as being capable of springing surprises in a free and fair election in 2015. This is especially on account of the performance rating of the Jonathan and PDP-led government which has been adjudged below standard locally and abroad. With rising cost of living, widening unemployment index and crippling security challenges in the land, informed analysts are agreed that, perhaps, no administration had been this clueless in the country’s almost 54 years of political independence.
This poor rating of the PDP-led federal government, critics insist, offers APC the opportunity to steal the show in 2015, if it puts its house in order. The party seems to be driving to that bend, given what it brandishes as its rancour-free convention earlier in the month. Before then, critics had insinuated that the various tendencies in the party would clash and crash it at the convention. But APC pulled through in a manner that baffled many. Before then, it had, last March, made a move that advertised it as taking a decisive step into issue-oriented politics. In what it presented as a 10-point agenda for a new Nigeria, APC had listed areas it would focus on to make life meaningful if it gets power in 2015.
Highlights of the presentation included job creation; anti-corruption fight; free, relevant quality education; agriculture; housing plan; and healthcare plan for children and adults. Analysts count these as issues the party can play up in the days ahead, especially if it can do away with its imposition politics.
Dr. Jamiu Oluwatoki, Senior Lecturer, Department of History and International Studies, Lagos State University (LASU), put it succinctly. He said: “Ekiti poll indicates that we can no longer take the people for granted. If the APC can take the centre from PDP in 2015, let them do if the election is a reflection of people’s wish. But let the same thing happen at state level. It is no democracy when there is no opposition. Ekiti people have shown the path to people’s voice. INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) can do it if we all cooperate for 2015.”
