Asked… the likely impact of the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, on the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, Fayose presaged his remarks with a memorable quote: “Anybody deceiving us can continue to deceive us.”
By Tiko Okoye
A quip made by Ayo Fayose, former Governor of Ekiti State, at a recent interview at Channels TV got me thinking very hard. Asked by the host to express his considered opinion on the likely impact of the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, on the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, Fayose presaged his remarks with a memorable quote: “Anybody deceiving us can continue to deceive us.” The caption of my piece is obviously a play on Fayose’s actual words.
As a national newspaper Op-Ed writer, I’ve been endorsing candidates in presidential elections – and predicting the winners – in my weekly column since the beginning of the 1998/99 election cycle. And, by the special grace of God, my predictions have far outperformed all the ‘prophecies’ that have saturated – and continue to saturate – the polity. The key to my excellent performance is simple. I’ve learnt to pigeon-hole emotions-cum-sentiments and actual realities in two non-contiguous compartments.
As a Nigerian, I usually have a preferred candidate in every presidential election that I whole-heartedly endorse in my column between 30-90 days to the date of the election. But I simultaneously predict who the winner will be based on practical realities – what the Germans call realpolitik. To put it in a nutshell, my endorsement is based on a subjective argument, while my prediction is grounded on an objective analysis.
Let me now give specific examples.
Although Olu Falae was the leader of the government team as protagonists against the team of antagonists led by Ibrahim Ayagi (of which I was a key member) in the great nationwide Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) debate flagged off by then-military President Ibrahim Babangida, his stellar achievements at Nigerian Merchant Bank placed him far above Obasanjo in my books hence I endorsed him.
But three immutable realities on the ground caused me to predict that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer, Obasanjo, would emerge victorious.
First was the solid backing he received from the Northern traditional and political establishment as a quid pro quo for a favour he supposedly extended to the region in the 1979 presidential election (especially the externally-induced farcical twelve-two-third’s decision made by the Supreme Court). They consequently deemed him to be less of a Southerner/Yoruba and more of a Northerner they could repose their total trust in.
Second was the clear body language of the ruling junta and coven of retired top military officers who would go to any length to prevent the ‘humiliation’ of their one-time Supreme Commander.
Third was the bestial act of betrayal of former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme by the South-East PDP governors at the Jos Nominating Convention.
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As long as “emi lokan” is your attitude to leadership, corruption is your bed mate – Dr Kolade
I quickly and eagerly endorsed the new kid on the presidential block, Muhammadu Buhari, the All-Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) flag bearer in the 2003 election. Taciturn, spartan and frugal, he was the no-nonsense GOC of the Jos-based First Division of the Nigeria Army who then-President Shagari, in the interest of good diplomatic relations with an important neighbour, virtually begged to cease and desist from pursuing marauding Chadian bandits in the defunct North-East State deep inside their own territory.
The ANPP presidential candidate appeared to be considerably bolstered by his choice of the indefatigable and highly-cerebral former Senate President Chuba Okadigbo as running mate. But although I reasoned that the addition of the very popular Okadigbo would see Buhari mine a rich vein of votes in the South-East that would most likely guarantee him victory in the impending election, I still predicted that Obasanjo, who had started ventilating the mantra of “do or die” politics about the same time, would put the coercive agencies of State plus the ‘Independent’ National Electoral Commission (INEC) at work to award victory to himself.
In the end, Obasanjo’s victory was made even sweeter by his success in conning the Afenifere leadership to back him up as a “son of the soil,” with the promise that all six AD governors and members of the National Assembly would be re-elected. By the time the smoke cleared from the battlefield only the governor of Lagos State, Tinubu, was left standing!
In 2007, I again endorsed Buhari, more so when he again added real weight to the ANPP ticket with his choice of House Speaker and erstwhile ANPP National Chairman Edwin Ume-Ezeoke as running mate. Still, I predicted that the “Tweedle-dum and Tweedle-dee unimpressive pair of Katsina’s Umaru Yar’Adua and Bayelsa’s Goodluck Jonathan” would carry the day for two principal reasons.
First was that Obasanjo would again willy-nilly deploy the ‘federal might’ to avoid being labelled a loser. The denunciation of his electoral victory by Yar’Adua himself and his immediate decision to set up the Justice Mohammed Uwais Electoral Reform Panel underscore the validity of my premises.
Second was my coming to terms with the reality that Ndigbo seemed to have collectively decided to swim or sink with the PDP and would readily gift a block vote to a goat propped up by the party than take as much as a second look at a superstar candidate of Igbo extraction nominated by any other party. It was what it was.
Not many people remember that the 2007 presidential election was the closest that has ever come to being annulled by the highest court in the land. Buhari was very capably represented by the very brilliant Senior Advocate of Nigeria called Mike Ahamba who, rather ironically, is yet to be accorded his rightful place in the pantheons of Nigerian jurisprudence. The decision on the Buhari vs Yar’Adua & INEC lawsuit was a 3-3 tie until Chief Justice Idris Legbo Kutigi broke the deadlock by casting the deciding vote for Yar’Adua!
2011 was the very first time the presidential candidate I endorsed equally turned out to be the same one I predicted to win the election. A vast majority of Nigerians were aghast and incensed when Jonathan was being given the run-around immediately following the death of Yar’Adua. Comments being made by political leaders from a particular section of the country, conveyed the impression, rightly or wrongly, that the presidency was the exclusive preserve of a certain ethnic nationality.
It took unrelenting boisterous protests by the Pastor Tunde Bakare-led Save Nigeria Group (SNG) and angry remonstrations by the public at large to prod the National Assembly into creatively using the plank of ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ to swear in Jonathan as Acting President in 2010. He had the sympathy of a very large segment of the population. This formed the basis for my endorsement.
I was also highly privileged to be appointed into a seven-man committee with the mandate to scour solidarity votes for Jonathan’s candidacy in every nook and cranny of the country so I was privy to concerted efforts being made to ensure his electoral victory. This was why I predicted he would win the election.
It must, however, be noted that towards the end of 2010, Tinubu’s ACN had tried to broker an ‘accord concordiale’ (apologes to Dr KO Mbadiwe) with Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) that would see the parties nominating ‘joint’ candidates in their respective areas of influence and dominance. It was the first time ever that progressives from the South-West would attempt to birth Awo’s dream of working with Northern progressives to form a progressives’ government at the centre.
But things didn’t work out on account of irreconcilable differences over the sharing of posts. But it most probably led Buhari to believe that an electoral partnership with the South-West would be more rewarding than one he has swimming against the tide to forge with the South-East, prompting the choice of Bakare as running mate.
By the middle of 2014, I had had enough of Jonathan’s weak governance style. And while many were brandishing all manner of prophecies, I bucked the trend in my Pentecostal constituency by endorsing Buhari. I also predicted that he would win the 2015 election on account of the behemoth new party structure dubbed the All Progressives Congress (APC) the merging legacy parties had forged.
And while many were again prophesying that Atiku would pluck sufficient votes from the North to cost Buhari the election in 2019, I had a completely different take. Buhari’s unimpressive performance notwithstanding, l adjudged him to be a better option in my books than Atiku. I consequently endorsed him and predicted his victory by a wider margin than in 2015.
It is that kind of open season for all manners of prophecies and predictions. Ensure you book your copy of next week’s piece when I’d commence detailed state-by-state predictions at regular intervals. You’re invited to compare my predictions with other polls and prophecies after the official results have been released.
