As Bayelsans go to the polls January 9 for the supplementary election in Ijaw South Local Government, some key issues still swing votes in the concluding governorship election.
Unlike past governorship elections in Bayelsa State, the choice between the incumbent, Governor Seriake Dickson and former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva has set the stage for a fierce battle between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The build-up to the December 5 election, which had witnessed tense political campaigns and allegations of plots to undermine the process, have given insight into how keen the contest is between frontline candidates, the incumbent Governor Dickson of the PDP and former governor Sylva of APC.
Although the two leading candidates are popular among Bayelsans, voting patterns may be decided along various lines which include performance, security, tribal sentiments and party affiliation.
Security
Voters may take a critical look at the issue of security now and before. The decision might be based on the fact that the state witnessed appreciable peace during the four-year administration of Governor Seriake Dickson. But many loyalists of the former administration of Chief Sylva are quick to counter that the peace enjoyed in Bayelsa under Dickson is due to the foundation laid by Sylva with the amnesty programme in the region.
While many voters can still remember previous cases of killings and cult-related violence under the administration of Chief Timipre Sylva, others say cases of killings, kidnapping and violence under the Dickson’s administration is a result of poverty in the state.
Workers/pensioners
The Bayelsa workforce constitute over 40 per cent of the population and voting populace. And the votes of the workers is also a deciding factor during general elections in the state.
Many observers consider the present workforce in the state as an aggrieved one with anger against Governor Dickson’s administration for implementing tax laws in the state which led to huge deductions from their salaries. Aside from the tax issues, in the last few days to the election, workers have not been paid November salaries.
Youths engagement
Many youths in the state have shown their support for APC and Chief Timipre Sylva, considering that under his administration, youths were engaged and allowed to participate in state governance. The youths may also vote massively for Sylva due to the promised increased employment and engagement.
Ijaw sentiments
The state, which prides itself as the only homogeneous Ijaw state, may be divided in votes along the sentiments of some people being “more Ijaws’ than others.
Those that pride themselves as the ‘core Ijaws’ include Kolokuma/Opokuma, Sothern- Ijaw, Ekeremor, Sagbama and parts of Yenagoa Local governments, while Nembe, Brass, Ogbia and parts of Yenagoa Local governments are labelled ‘non-core’ Ijaws.
As it were, the ‘core- Ijaws’ are in the majority while the non-core Ijaws are in the minority. Politicians indeed have a way of dividing the people and whipping up sentiments to curry favour.
The ‘core’ and ‘non-core’ Ijaws crept into the political lexicon of Bayelsa State during the administration of Timipre Sylva when some politicians, who were opposed to his emergence as governor, started whipping up tribal sentiments that he was not from the ‘core Ijaw’ stock, although he is from the Nembe speaking Okpoama in Brass Local Government Area of the state
Again, the core and non-core Ijaw sentiment has been freely exploited during this campaign. Governor Seriake Dickson’s supporters have been using the ‘Ijawness’ of their candidate to appeal to the electorate for support.
Jonathan factor
Though defeated at the national level, the former president, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is still regarded as a major force in Bayelsa politics.
Jonathan’s public support and campaigns for Governor Dickson are considered an additional advantage. The PDP is praying that the hangover of the people from the presidential defeat of Jonathan will remain fresh in the minds of the voters in the state. The governorship election presents an opportunity for the people to vent their consternation with the way and manner their son was defeated.
Many will therefore vote for the PDP, not because of Dickson, as a payback for the defeat of Jonathan. Those who share this school of thought are of the view that another defeat of the PDP in the state will amount to a second defeat of Jonathan — a case of once bitten twice shy.
Performance
Governor Seriake Dickson is adjudged to have performed in the area of critical infrastructure development. Should he leave power on February 14, 2016, his impact will stand the test of time. Dickson has built bridges to link rural communities, undertaken urban expansion and renewal projects, in addition to the construction and renovations of schools and health facilities and rural electrification.
Governor Dickson embarked on huge capital intensive projects including the state airport, sea port and roads, housing estates, state polytechnic and ring roads. With the paucity of funds from the Federal Government, these projects have been abandoned momentarily.
For the first time in the history of the state, projects are being cited in almost every community in the state. Also for the first time in the state, the governor has introduced free and compulsory education to secondary level, with free books and school uniforms. The governor has appointed over 400 aides, all drawing salaries from the state government purse.
If Bayelsans were to cast their votes on the basis of performance, Dickson would have gotten it, but the complaint is that the governor is not paying as much attention to ‘stomach infrastructure’. The governor has also been criticised for not giving more jobs to indigenous contractors. But the governor has said he does not want to compromise on the quality of jobs. Dickson has been banking on his performance, but who knows, the electorate might be looking for something.
-Leadership
