By Ishaya Ibrahim
Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai probably understands his poor acceptance amongst the Southern Kaduna people, majority of whom are Christians. They see him as anti-Christianity.
He also may know that choosing a Christian deputy as running mate would not improve his chances in that area at the February 2019 governorship poll, especially against a known political foe, Isa Ashiru, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate.
Both men had slugged it out for the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2014. El-Rufai won by a slim margin.
Early this year, Ashiru defected to the PDP and clinched the party’s governorship ticket. In 2019, the two will be flying the tickets of their political parties. Both of them are from the Kaduna North senatorial zone, largely dominated by Muslims.
Ashiru has picked a Christian running mate from Southern Kaduna. El-Rufai opted for a fellow Muslim, Hadiza Balarabe.
Although she is from Southern Kaduna, that may have little consolation for the people. Even being a woman may have no impact. Kaduna has been divided along two antagonistic groups – Christians and Muslims. A Muslim-Muslim ticket will only strengthen that divide.
Kaduna’s population is almost equally split among the two religions, with a slight Muslim edge. Analysts believe that El-Rufai’s game plan is to get a sweeping support from his Muslim base, thereby eliminating any collateral damage that the bloc vote from Southern Kaduna to his rival could do to his reelection.
The Southern Kaduna people have held El-Rufai in distrust, the origin of which is the herdsmen killings in their communities.
They blame the government of El-Rufai for its inability to protect them. The matter was made worse when the governor said he had paid monetary compensation to the killer herdsmen in far away Niger Republic.
There was also the comment credited to El-rufai that Southern Kaduna Christian clerics are using the killings of its natives by armed herdsmen to receive financial support from churches overseas.
The last straw was the alleged creation of four emirates in Southern Kaduna. Emirate is the Islamic appellation of a traditional kingdom. In Southern Kaduna where Christians hold sway, such traditional kingdoms are called Chiefdoms.
A memo in which the state government approves the renaming of the Kauru Chiefdom to Emirate was leaked in July. Kauru is in Southern Kaduna.
The governor’s critics have used the memo to strengthen their case that El-Rufai is out to marginalize them.
El-Rufai is no rookie. He’s expecting a tsunami against him from Southern Kaduna.
His last bet is an overwhelming win from his Muslim base to erode the gain of his rival. Would they give him that victory? Analysts say that possibility is slim since his opponent is from that same base.
