By Emeka Alex Duru
Less than three weeks to the September 19 original date for the All Progressives Congress (APC), presidential primary, the party seems headed for a major crisis, unless its handlers act fast.
Two quick but contradictory outings by its principal functionaries concerning its mode of primaries to select flag bearers for various offices, were the issues, currently setting it on the edge.
In the first outing on Thursday, August 30, Plateau State governor, Simon Lalong and his Kogi counterpart, Yahaya Bello, had told newsmen that the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), had resolved to use direct primary only for the presidential primary and indirect primary for other layers of offices.
They added, however, that states wishing to use direct primary should apply to the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party with the approval of majority of their stakeholders and the state working committee.
The import of the announcement was yet to sink in, when, the next day, Friday, the Acting National Publicity Secretary of the party, Yekini Nabena announced that the NEC actually resolved to use direct primary for all primary election, while states wishing to use indirect primary should hold a stakeholders meeting and agree on it.
According to him, the August 30, 2018 resolution of the APC NEC on the mode of Primary Election had been subjected to inference and misleading interpretations.
In a bid to clarify the situation, he stated: “Primary elections into all elective offices shall be by Direct Primaries.
“NEC resolved to adopt Direct Primaries for the nomination of the Presidential candidate and all other Primaries”.
Nabena admitted that though the APC constitution provides for indirect election and consensus, the use of indirect primaries is conditional and dependent on logistic impediments; peculiarities and need of a given State that make it unable to use direct primaries.
In that instance, he stated, the State Executive Committee (SEC), in a state concerned, shall in consultation with aspirants and other critical stakeholders of the Party within it fold, forward for the consideration and approval by the NWC, if indirect primaries is to be adopted. The adopted mode shall now be applied to all categories of the Party’s Primary Elections i.e. State Assembly, Senate, House of Representatives and for the Governorship Elections”, he stressed.
APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, did a follow-up to the statement by Nabena, on Monday, September 3, when he stressed that the party adopted the option in a bid to deepen internal democracy within its fold.
He said the option will reduce the corruption and manipulation associated with the delegates system.
Oshiomhole, however, acknowledged the challenges associated with the direct system, including logistic and security problems, arguing however that they are surmountable.
He said: “Party members are complaining that they have no role to play in the party, except voting during the general elections, like other members of the public.
“We also note that direct primary is free from the vices associated with the indirect primary. Direct primary cannot be manipulated. It is not prone to corruption.
“We want to grow democracy. We want the party members to have ownership of the party. We want to give our members a sense of belonging.”
Governors at war
This is however the crux of the matter. Oshiomhole, in adopting the system, may have scored some points among the ordinary members of the party. But his stance on the matter, may have set him on a collision course with some critical segments of the party, especially the governors, who,TheNiche gathered, are interpreting the measure, as a calculated attempt to cage them or even deny them re-nomination.
The governors, in the indirect (delegates) system, have the commissioners, special advisers, Senior Special Advisers, State Executive members of the party, other principal officers and local government chairmen, who are considered as statutory delegates, and are at their behest to the disadvantage of their opponents or those they want to do in.
In such instance, they openly or subtly determine other delegates for ail the state primaries and even national convention.
But with the direct primary arrangement, every duly registered member of the party, is entitled to vote for a candidate of his choice.
It is however feared that the arrangement may leave the governors and others seeking re-election at the mercy of godfathers in states where they are yet to develop their own political structures.
In a state like Lagos, where there have been insinuations of frosty relationship between APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu and his godson, Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode, the fear is potent.
At the Ikeja State Secretariat of the party, a concerned official, who pleaded not to be mentioned, admitted that the rumoured face-off between Tinubu and the governor, is causing considerable tension at the Alausa Government House, in the run-up to the primary.
“I cannot state emphatically the issues between Asiwaju (Tinubu) and the governor. But something tells me that all is not well. Our fear in the direct primary is on how it will affect the governor.
“As you know, the entire structures of the party in the state down to the Market Women, belong to Asiwaju. If therefore there is truly a big issue between them, it is easy for him to deploy his foot soldiers and direct the people on who to nominate. And the governor is gone!
“But in the indirect system where the delegates are known and the number manageable, it may be easy for the governor to reach out to some of them and plead with them to see reasons with him on why he should be given another chance.
“My brother, to tell you the truth, we are not comfortable with this direct primary of a thing”, he explained.
Elsewhere, the situation is not completely different. Perhaps, to avoid being caught napping in the unfolding development, our correspondent, learnt on good authority that opponents of the direct primary have started mobilising state chairmen and other stakeholders to block the arrangement in the states.
On Sunday, for instance, there were reports of some party stakeholders including state APC chairmen and some members of the NWC converging in Abuja, to work out strategies to confront the issue.
Though the National Publicity Secretary had described the meeting as “illegal and an attempt to puncture the sincere efforts being made by the Adams Oshiomhole-led NWC to reposition our party ahead of the 2019 general elections and to ensure unity, equity and justice in the party”, the conveners were hardly scared.
Opinions divided, crisis looms
In the process, the APC, which is yet to recover fully from the recent wind of defection that had robbed it of three governors (Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara), 14 Senators and 36 House of Representatives members, may be headed for another crisis.
On the one hand of the impending impasse, are the governors who may lose out in the direct primary, while on the other hand, are, incidentally the senators and other legislators who have not been in the good books of their respective governors.
For the lawmakers, direct primary will afford them opportunity for re-nomination by members of their constituencies, especially if they are considered to have kept faith with them in their current tenure.
The system will also add more clout to the godfathers in areas where they have pronounced dominance or completely whittle their weight, if the governors or others targeted to be brought down, manage to pull through, where they had posed obstacles.
By Tuesday, September 4, 2018, there were indications on the governors putting up collective action to frustrate the indirect system of primaries in their states.
Adamawa takes the lead
But in what seems the first shot against the direct system option, Adamawa State chapter of the party, on Monday adopted the indirect primaries for the election of its candidates for the 2019 general elections.
A communiqué issued at the end of the State Executive Committee (SEC) meeting of the party in Yola said the system was the best option for the state.
It said that the SEC consulted widely and resolved to adopt the indirect primaries for the Governorship, National Assembly and State House of Assembly Primaries for the elections.
Investigations by TheNiche, pointed to other states adopting the Adamawa option in the days ahead.
Danger not averted
Democratic as the latitude on the states to adopt options they consider most suitable appear, it is fraught with uncertainties, analysts have warned. According to them, giving the states the rights to adopt any system they consider necessary to their peculiarities, may eventually create more problems for the APC.
“How do you, for instance, expect a state where there are parallel tendencies to agree on a particular system to adopt? How for example, would Senator Shehu Sani and Governor Nasir el-Rufai, agree on a particular system to adopt in Kaduna? Who would be the moderator”, Pat Nwabunnia, a Political Scientist and public opinion analyst, asked in response to the matter.
According to him, the Oshiomhole-led NWC of the APC may have unwittingly revved the smoldering fire in the party, while trying to appear loyal before the President.
To him, the best the party should have done, was to settle for a particular system for all the elective positions at all levels.
“Anything to the contrary, will amount to further democratization of the crisis in the party”, he noted.
