By Emeka Alex Duru
Events in the run up to the October 5 and 6, National Convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the outcome, will go a long way in shaping its preparations for the 2019 general elections.
Among other things, the exercise will show indications on the direction of the party in the build-up to the elections.
It will also indicate how far the chieftains of the party have actually lived to the proclamations of having learnt their lessons, nearly four years after being ousted from power at the national level.
PDP, had in a release, dated, July 23, 2018, set aside Friday, October 5, and Saturday, October 6, for its national convention where its presidential candidate for the 2019 election will emerge.
This was contained in a memorandum submitted to the National Executive Committee of the party by its National Chairman, Prince Uche Secondus, at its meeting in Abuja.
The release added that “the Presidential Appeal Panel would sit on any appeal by aggrieved aspirants on October 7, while it would present a certificate of return to the candidate on October 20”.
Aspirants on parade
The announcement seemed what aspirants on the party’s platform who initially appeared undecided, needed, to make open declarations of their intentions.
Consequently, in the last count, about 14 chieftains of the party have advertised their interest on the ticket.
They include, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; a former governor of Kano State and serving Senator, Rabiu Kwankwaso; a former governor of Jigawa State and former Foreign Affairs Minister, Sule Lamido; a former governor of Kano State and former Minister of Education; Ibrahim Shakarau; and a former governor of Kaduna State and chairman of former National Caretaker Committee of the party, Ahmed Makarfi.
The list also include, a former governor of Sokoto State and former member of the House of Representatives, Attahiru Bafarawa; Governor of Gombe State, Ibrahim Dankwambo; a former governor of Plateau State, David Jonah Jang; a former Minister of Special Duties, Tanimu Turaki; and a former member of the House of Representatives, Datti Baba-Ahmed.
Sokoto State governor and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, is also in the race, as well as the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, who formally joined the race on Thursday, August 30.
There are indications of more aspirants entering the race, ahead the October convention. Remarkably, the figure so far recorded, is the highest in the number of aspirants that had sought the party’s presidential ticket at any time, since its formation, 20 years ago.
The only time it had such a fairly large number of aspirants was in the 1999 contest in which about nine of its members sought the ticket ahead of its national convention in Jos, the Plateau State capital.
Among the contenders then were Olusegun Obasanjo, former Vice President, late Alex Ekwueme, Consummate Economist, Philip Asiodu, Don Etiebet, former Minister, Graham Douglas, and erstwhile Anambra State governor, Jim Nwobodo, and former Kano State governor, late Abubakar Rimi.
Coming at the time efforts were aimed at sending the military back to the barracks, the party’s ticket was thrown open to contenders from all over the country. But that is not the case now.
The North gets the slot
In the current dispensation, most, if not all the aspirants so far, are from the North. This is in keeping with the Senator Ike Ekweremadu-led post-2015 election review committee, which recommended that the 2019 presidential candidate of the party would come from the North, since the former President, Goodluck Jonathan, had taken the turn of the south, in 2015.
Of note is that the committee in conceding the ticket to the North, did not restrict it to any particular zone. This is why the likes of Kwankwaso, Lamido, Makarfi, Tambuwal and others, are aspiring from the North West. From the North East are Atiku, Dankwambo, among others. North Central has Saraki and Jang.
A section of the party sees the arrangement as a good strategy to harness the best from the aspirants in the North for the position. An argument on this line, stresses that as against the 2015 episode in which those desirous for the ticket were shut off to make way for Jonathan, hence the consequent bad blood, the current arrangement, would enable party members make informed choice from the basket of aspirants.
“It will also make room for horse trading, alliances, agreements and understanding among the aspirants and other chieftains of the party, which are the very exciting ingredients of the presidential democracy we claim to practice,”, volunteered a senior Lecturer in the Department of History and International Studies, Lagos State University (LASU), who asked not to be mentioned.
Atiku campaign managers also appear to be at home with the open market which the arrangement has provided the north with.
“People should go about selling and marketing themselves without trying to undermine the other people’s aspiration. We are in the race to win. We are looking forward to a transparent primary where definitely we are going to win”, the Atiku Campaign Organisation (ACO), had, at a time, stated in response to those seeking the ticket to be zoned to a particular geo-political part of the North.
This, is however, contrary to the views of Kwankwaso, who insists that the ticket should be zoned to his North West. In his view, the number of states in the zone, its population and voting strength are issues to be considered in allowing the North West produce the candidate.
His supporters add that with President Muhammadu Buhari, most likely, the All Progressives congress (APC) candidate coming from the zone, taking the PDP to another area, would leave the entire bloc to him.
North West has seven states, populated by 35,786,944, according to 2006 Census, while North East and North Central with six states each had 18,971,965 and 18,841,056, respectively.
Analysis of the independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) voter registration, also indicated that out of Nigeria’s 73 million voting population, the North-west zone accounts for about 18 million registered voters while the North-east and North-central have 15 million and 12 million, respectively
Party leadership to the rescue?
Amidst the sizzling controversy which centres on leaving the ticket open to the larger North or micro-zoning it to a particular area, the PDP leadership is not making any particular pronouncement, apparently, not to appear to take sides with any of the divides.
Efforts to get the position of the party on the matter from Kola Ologbondiyan, the national publicity secretary, did not yield results, as his telephone number was not accessible.
But he had lately been reported to have maintained that micro-zoning the ticket is not an option for the party, now.
“The party is yet to reach a decision on micro zoning of office of the president to any of the six geo-political zones. Our party’s constitution provides for power rotation between the North and the South,” he was quoted to have told an online medium, Premium times.
Our source in LASU, warns on the PDP shooting itself in the leg by taking hasty and uninformed decision on the matter. According to him, “it is a dicey affair. Whatever the party makes of the case will go a long way in determining how far it will go, subsequently. Any faulty move on it, will result to mass exodus of the alienated members to the APC or any other party. It requires a great deal of maturity and understanding on the part of the leadership and the aspirants to manage the situation”.
This is what many consider the greatest challenge currently facing the country’s leading opposition party. But how far its chieftains and major stakeholders, especially the leadership and governors on its platform understand and manage the situation, remains to be seen.
