By Emeka Alex Duru
Less than three weeks to the June 23, 2018 National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the outcome, is more or less, known. The question however, is what happens to the party after the exercise.
With the National Chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun, eventually withdrawing from going for a re-election, the coast has been cleared for Adams Oshiomhole, immediate past Edo State governor, President Muhammadu Buhari’s favourite, to clinch the position.
Oyegun, who pulled out of the race on Friday, June 1, claimed doing so in the interest of the party. He stressed that though he would have loved taking another shot at the office, he was opting out so as not to be part of the problems confronting the party.
´´I do not intend to be part of the problem for APC to solve. It is for this reason that I hereby declare that I will not be seeking re-election as the national chairman”, Oyegun remarked.
The action by the national chairman did not come as a surprise to keen followers of the intrigue-infested politics of the ruling party in the last couple of months.
In fact, following Buhari’s resistance to one-year tenure extension earlier granted the national leadership of the party, it was apparent that Oyegun and his National Working Committee (NWC), had merely been lurking around for the expiration of their term on June 24.
Events began to take turns for the unpredictable, when Buhari kicked against tenure elongation for the Oyegun-led NWC at the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the party on March 27.
Coming in tow, APC governors, in a meeting, on Wednesday, April 4, backed the President.
By the two pronouncements, the extension which had earlier been granted to the Oyegun team at a Special National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party, on February 27, on the promptings of the 36 state chairmen of the party, was discarded.
Buhari, was incidentally present at both meetings. He did not oppose the February endorsement. The twist in the March meeting, was, thus, all that was needed to indicate that he had withdrawn his support for Oyegun.
Subsequent developments saw the governors falling over one another in effort to advertise Oshiomhole, presumably, at Buhari’s behest.
June 23, would therefore, witness mere affirmation of the former Edo governor, as the APC National Chairman.
How far can APC go?
Riding on the mood of the day, foot soldiers of the President and those angling for Oyegun’s exit, are already on victory path, claiming that the Oshiomhole lone candidacy, would save the party acrimonies of election.
They also see in the former governor, the force needed to whip chieftains and members of APC into line on matters of party discipline, which they alleged that Oyegun was not enforcing.
But the extent these assumptions would go, remains matters of conjectures. If anything, the insistence on fresh congresses and convention by the President, has rather, exposed the various tendencies and fault lines in the party.
Oyegun had rightly pointed out that some of the APC leaders ought to have considered the tenure extension to be in the best interest of the party.
This, he said, would have ensured that the party goes into the 2019 elections as a united fighting force, rather than one that would be potentially weakened by internal conflicts arising from competitive congresses and convention.
Developments in the party, have tended to prove him right. In the recent state congresses of the party, 26 chapters ended up with parallel executives.
A party in crisis
At the national level, the constitution of the convention committees, in an irony of sort, confirmed the allegation of marginalisation by the so-called new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP), which flowed into the APC from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in the build-up to the 2015 general elections.
The group, had in a recent memo to APC leadership, raised allegations of being excluded from the affairs of the party, demanding a reversal to the trend, within a specific period.
By Monday, June 4, a continuation of the meeting between the nPDP and the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, to address issues raised in the letter, was scheduled.
But while the matter lingered, the APC constituted its national convention committees, without members of the nPDP featuring in any.
Following the uncertain development in addition to the disdain with which Senate President, Bukola Saraki and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara have been visited, the PDP wing of the party, has been effectively whittled.
Also, with Oyegun not going for re-election, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) leg of the party, has been seriously bruised. In similar way, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) wing has been decapitated, following the humiliation being handed to Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, by the APC leadership.
It is thus, essentially the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), represented by Buhari and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), reflected in Osinbajo/Bola Tinubu tendencies that are running the show in the party.
A Senior Lecturer in the Department of History, Lagos State University (LASU), who pleaded anonymity, predicted the fall of APC with the unfolding development.
“I see implosion in the party. They are beginning to draw imaginary lines in the party. The party leaders are allowing their 2015 victory get to their heads. What you will see next, is the fall of the party”, he noted.
Like PDP, like APC?
The Lecturer, is not entirely pessimistic in his observation. Analysis of faulty moves by PDP in the build-up to the 2015 general elections, lends weight to his remarks.
At the March 24, 2012, National Convention of PDP in Abuja, major positions were parceled out to favoured candidates of former President Goodluck Jonathan in a consensus arrangement that analysts considered highly undemocratic.
Incidentally, while preparations for the convention peaked, the party hierarchy had sold impressions of a party that had exited from its past that was characterised by intrigues.
With the advertisement of the new dawn, there were hopes that internal democracy had returned in the party. On that basis, estranged chieftains of the party who were chiseled out of its mainstream by the dictatorial tendencies of the time, began to nurse a dream of the party returning to the ideals of its forebears.
Hopes of a reformed party were however dashed when few hours to the convention, words filtered out that Bamanga Tukur, Aso Rock candidate and erstwhile governor of defunct Gongola State, had been selected as National Chairman of the party.
His position was merely affirmed at the convention ground.
PDP never recovered from the bad blood that trailed that exercise. Subsequent developments saw the then governors of Sokoto (Aliyu Wamakko), Rivers (Rotimi Amaechi), Adamawa (Murtala Nyako), Kwara (Abdulfatah Ahmed) and Kano (Rabiu Kwankwaso), walking out of the party.
The governors and other chieftains of the party, constituted the nPDP that flowed into the APC and boosted its chances in 2015 polls.
The fear is that with the uncertain climate in APC, a walk-out by estranged members after the convention, may not be ruled out. That, analysts, say, would mark the commencement of real problem for the ruling party.
