By Emeka Alex Duru
In 2014, when the All Progressives Congress (APC), held its national convention, it was a carnival of sort. Then a fledgling political organisation, not many really gave it a chance to come out with anything meaningful.
Coming from a fusion of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a fraction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the conclusion was that the convention would expose the fault lines of the organisation.
But apparently bent on wresting power from the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), facilitators of the party, managed to close their ranks.
The surprising success of the convention was the first warning shot to the PDP that its days as the ruling party, were numbered.
It therefore did not come to Nigerians as a surprise, when the party dislodged PDP from power in the 2015 general elections.
That marked the first time an opposition party would beat a governing party, in the nation’s history.
Hanging on the precipice
Four years later, APC is going for another national convention. But unlike the atmosphere of 2014 when APC used the success of the exercise to announce to the World that it was the credible alternative to the staggering PDP, analysts and supporters of the party, are gravely bothered on how the outcome of the forthcoming outing, would impact on the already, fragile internal politics of the party.
Not even the meeting between President Muhammadu Buhari and some governors on the platform of the party, last Monday, April 23, 2018, had provided a definite compass on how to manage the outcome of the national convention, scheduled for May 14, 2018.
There are rather fears that if anything, the meeting, which reports claim, was intended to galvanise support for the candidacy of former Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole, said to be gunning for the post of national chairman, against the incumbent, John Odigie-Oyegun, may further widen the gulf in the party.
Return to the battle line
Signs of the looming impasse began to unfold, when Buhari kicked against tenure elongation for the Oyegun-led National Working Committee (NWC), at the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the party on March 27.
Coming in tow, APC governors, in a meeting, on Wednesday, April 4, backed the President.
By the two pronouncements, a one-year extension which had been granted to the Oyegun team at a Special National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party, earlier on February 27, on the promptings of the 36 state chairmen of the party, was discarded.
Consequently, the tenure of the Oyegun-led NWC ceases at the expiration of its first term, on June 30. There is however a window for the serving officers who are still interested in their positions to be granted waivers to seek re-election.
Oyegun, seems interested in going for a second term, though he says he is still consulting on the issue. And he has supporters at various layers of the party.
Buhari, was initially said to be at home with his leadership. He was, in fact, present at the February 27 NEC meeting where the national chairman and his team were recommended for tenure extension.
Buhari switches camp
But the tide seems to have changed. Reports currently indicate that the President may have ditched Oyegun for Oshiomhole. Aside his observed soft spots for the former governor, his new frame of mind is said to be in solidarity with former Lagos governor, Bola Tinubu, who has not hidden his desire on the exit of Oyegun.
On occasions, lately, Tinubu had called for the resignation of the national chairman, at a point, accusing him of lacking in vision to move the party ahead. It was the former Lagos governor, that incidentally, sold Oyegun APC, in preference to the former External Affairs Minister, Tom Ikimi, who played key roles in the formation of the party.
Tinubu is said to be backing Oshiomhole, and in the process, perhaps, unknowingly, rekindling the various latent tendencies in the party.
One Convention, many voices
That is the major fear many have on the May 14 convention. Already signs of the discord have started emerging. At the meeting of the South-South caucus of the party last Monday in Benin, two narratives emerged on who the zone is backing for the office.
Initial announcement by the Zonal Vice Chairman of the party, Hilliard Eta, was that the meeting with near unanimity, had adopted Oshiomhole as the zone’s candidate for the office of national chairman.
Eta had claimed that the caucus had settled for Oshiomhole after the Edo State chapter of the party had presented him as the candidate, and the decision put to the vote.
“Having considered the position of Edo State it was put to the vote and the majority of the members of the zonal executive committee decided that Edo State position must be affirmed by the zonal executive committee”, he said.
His assertion was, however, immediately rebuffed by four of the six state chairmen from the zone who in a joint resolution described the decision to adopt Oshiomhole as that of the Edo State Government House.
The chairmen of the Rivers, Cross Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa State chapters, namely, Davies Ibiamu Ikanya, JP; Mr. Etim John; Dr. Amadu Attai and Deacon Joseph Fafi respectively, had in a joint statement, distanced themselves from the announcement by Eta, which they described as an imposition.
“We condemn in totality the attempts by the South-South Zonal Vice Chairman, Hilliard Eta and Governor Godwin Obaseki to impose Comrade Adams Oshiomhole as the adopted candidate of the South-South zone for the position of national chairman at the forthcoming national convention of our great party”, they had argued.
To worsen matters, senior party members from the region, including, Oyegun and the six ministers from the zone, did not feature in the meeting.
Analysts interpret the discordant tunes from the South-South, a snippet of what to expect on the matter in the days ahead.
The division in South-South over who to back, may also replicate in the South West. Though Tinubu is perceived as the Lord of the Region’s politics for now, there are emerging forces that may work against his choice for the post, if voting at the convention is to run freely.
It is, for instance, not certain how far he can influence votes for Oshiomhole in Ondo, where his relations with the governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, is at best, lukewarm, following the 2016 governorship primary of the party, where his preferred candidate, Segun Abrahams, lost to the governor.
That, actually, was the point at which his problem with Oyegun, who he suspected to be working for the governor, began to take turns for the worst.
For Akeredolu, who had at the time, enjoyed the backing of Buhari, against Tinubu’s desire, it may be difficult to predict where his support would go, if Oyegun is also running.
The same air of unpredictability blows in Ogun, where the governor, Ibikunle Amosun, a staunch Buhari loyalist, may be at odds in tagging with Tinubu, with whom he had been in subtle ego show; and Oyegun, with whom had been in the same camp in their days of the defunct ANPP.
Osun is a straight catch for Oshiomhole because of Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s closeness with Tinubu and Buhari. The role of the former Lagos governor in Ekiti primary and outcome, may determine who the delegates may align with.
The South East wing of the party, lacking in any identifiable agenda and leadership, will certainly flow with the President.
North Central, which has borne the brunt of Fulani Herdsmen menace without visible commitment from the federal government, may use the convention to show Buhari that his government has not been fair to them.
But that, incidentally, may mean endorsing Oyegun, who, as a national chairman, has also, not raised strong voice against the running mayhem in the zone.
Buhari’s North West, would, most likely run with his candidate.
The National Assembly Caucus of the party, it is estimated, may throw their weight behind Oyegun, if for no other reason, to get back at Buhari and Tinubu, with whom they have been having running battles since their inauguration in June, 2015.
As for the North East, the original enclave of the defunct ANPP, the national chairman, who came from the party, seems favoured. This is because, his exit from the NWC, would be seen as marginalizing the ANPP leg of the party.
How far will the Party go?
The feeling of alienation and marginalisation the poor management of the convention would wrought on the party, is what analysts argue, may result to the emergence of a compromise candidate, if it is decided that Oyegun must go.
This is however, if the President, while seeking to appease Tinubu, also realises the danger of foisting a particular candidate on the party.
