Senior Correspondent, ISHAYA IBRAHIM, examines the chances of the APC and the PDP in the Katsina State governorship election.
As in previous governorship elections in Katsina State, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, faces another hard nut. Despite his unrivalled following in the North, his party had always been defeated by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state’s governorship elections since 1999.
In 2011, Buhari, then presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), polled more votes than President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in the presidential election in Katsina. He got 1,154,000 votes, while Jonathan polled 424,587 votes.
In the governorship election, it was a reverse match. Governor Ibrahim Shema of the PDP overran his closest challenger, Aminu Masari of the CPC. Shema polled 1,027,912 votes against Masari’s 555,769 votes.
Despite Buhari’s inability to deliver his state, he has, with the exception of 2007 presidential election, won more votes than his opponents in the North East and North West.
In 2003, as the presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), he polled 12,495,326, trailing then President Olusegun Obasanjo, candidate of the PDP who got 24,109,157. More than 80 per cent of Buhari’s votes came from the North.
The exception was in 2007, which was a home derby for Buhari and his PDP challenger, Umaru Yar’Adua. Both contenders were from Katsina. Yar’Adua won the election with 24,638,063 votes, while Buhari finished second with 6,605,299 votes. And like previous elections, PDP also clinched Katsina.
In 2015, the PDP seems to have the ace in the state’s governorship election. Analysts say there are many things favouring the PDP’s candidate, Musa Nashuni. He is squaring-up against a two-time governorship contender, Masari, the APC candidate.
Nashuni, a local-breed politician, was a commissioner under Shema for seven and a half years, holding several portfolios. The resources of the state, analysts say, have been deployed for his campaign.
Another advantage for Nashuni is that he is from Kankia local government, an area that has been clamouring for power shift. He is expected to get bloc votes from his people.
The developmental strides of the Shema administration have also bolstered Nashuni’s campaign. Katsina people are said to be happy with the governor for building roads that connect the state capital with all the 34 local governments in the state.
For Masari, who hails from Kafur, a minority section of the state, the lack of funds and intra-party squabbles may be his undoing in the election.
In what seemed a replay of the 2011 episode, the APC primaries, which threw up Masari as the candidate of the party, has torn the party’s political figures. Kanti Bello, the runner-up in the primary, feeling embittered over his defeat, accused Masari of certificate forgery. He has since taken the case to court.
It is believed that Bello is a dogged fighter who never gives up easily, given his antecedents. In his ANPP days, he was accused of hijacking the machinery of the defunct party, even claiming to have Buhari, at a time.
In the CPC, Bello was once suspended for polarising the party’s ranks. It is believed that his latest feud with Masari might deplete APC votes.
But Masari said the issue about his certificate was a deliberate distraction. According to him, he had an unblemished career in the Katsina civil service as well as politics, including being the Speaker of the House of Representatives from 2003 to 2007, stressing that his certificate was never an issue then.
“Within that period, I attended various courses both within and outside the country, and the certificate they are alleging is fake was in 1982. I obtained a postgraduate diploma and the admission was given to me on the basis of the experience I had at that time.
“I was then a senior officer on Grade Level 10 and I was given the opportunity to go to Middlesex Polytechnic in London and study water quality control and management. So, for God’s sake, how come in 1982 that I had no idea that I would contest the governorship election after 32 years, I forged a certificate waiting for that day or even forged a certificate to contest the election in 1999, 17 years after?” he queried.
