As the PDP and APC tour Northern states, scrambling for votes, Senior Correspondent, ISHAYA IBRAHIM, examines the chances of presidential candidates of the two parties, President Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and General Muhammadu Buhari (APC), in the region.
Of the rallies in the North by the All Progressives Congress (APC) so far, that of Kano stands out. On that day, Tuesday, January 20, the crowd surged for Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the party. On account of the huge turn-out, the retired General was overwhelmed and short of words for his admirers. He simply urged them to get their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) otherwise their love for him would not be translated into reality.
The following day, President Goodluck Jonathan stormed the same venue. Though he had been considered the underdog in the contest for Kano votes, he impressed not a few people by pulling an impressive crowd in the perceived opposition stronghold.
The scramble for Kano votes is understandable. The state has a huge voting population after Lagos. The number of registered voters in the state is 4,751,818. Though Buhari is favoured to win the state, the PDP is determined to at least reduce his tally. And it might as well achieve that going by the huge crowd which turned out to cheer its candidate, Jonathan, on January 21.
Although crowd attendance is not a measure of election victory, it nonetheless gives an insight on the popularity of the candidate.
For instance, Jonathan’s visit to Sokoto State was almost a disaster, with very low crowd turn-out. Those in attendance at the rally also seemed unenthusiastic in acknowledging cheers from the president. This could only mean that Sokoto is deeply entrenched in APC and may overwhelmingly vote Buhari.
The two presidential candidates also held their various rallies in Jigawa. As expected, the crowd attendance for Buhari was huge, closely followed by Jonathan who got a strong backing from the governor, Sule Lamido.
In Katsina, Buhari’s home state, unidentified political thugs attacked the convoy of the president.
When Jonathan, accompanied by Vice President, Namadi Sambo; National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu; and Governor Ibrahim Shema of Katsina State visited the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s mother, Hajiya Dada, broom-wielding youths, who were suspected to be members of the APC, chanting “Sai Buhari”, surged forward.
Security agents had a hectic time dispersing the crowd. The youths regrouped and moved to attack the president’s convoy, as he was ready to leave the residence after the visit.
Security agents fired tear gas canisters to disperse the youths to allow vehicles in the convoy speed off.
As the presidential delegation made its way towards the Katsina Airport, the youths hurled stones at the convoy.
In Bauchi and Gombe, similar violent incidents took place. The crowd in Bauchi, who were initially chanting pro-Jonathan slogans, made a U-turn when the speeches from PDP chieftains started. FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed, told Jonathan that it was the opposition that sponsored the unruly crowd. However, when he said “Nigeria” (in his bid to cheer up PDP supporters), the crowd responded, “Sai Buhari”.
The incident came a day after the Governor of Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose, placed a controversial advert on the front page of The Punch and Daily Sun newspapers, suggesting that, like other former heads of state from the North West zone (Murtala Muhammed, Sani Abacha and Umaru Yar’Adua), Buhari may also suffer their fate if elected.
The advert caused a stir in the country, making the PDP to distance itself from it.
Buhari is the favourite in the North, especially in the seven North West states. He is also favoured to win in Bauchi, Yobe, Gombe and Borno, while he hopes to clinch Niger in the North Central. The recurring Boko Haram insurgency might also reduce Jonathan’s votes in the region.
On popularity contest, the former head of state seems to have the number, perhaps, departing from his record of election losses in the hitherto disarray opposition parties where he ran for president in the past.
With the APC having structures in all the 36 states of the country, plus Abuja, the 2015 election will be a tough fight between him and President Jonathan, it has been estimated.
For instance, in the 2011 election, Buhari garnered 12,214,853, votes while Jonathan polled 22,495,187 votes, at a time his party, the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), was less than a year old in registration, had no sitting governor, and completely without structures in all the South East and South South states. Notwithstanding, he won in 12 states, all in the North.
With the hindsight of 2011 election where his supporters went into violent spree on hearing the news that he lost, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) might attempt to make the 2015 election freer and fairer to mitigate election related violence.
While the North is sure for Buhari, he is not the favourite in the South East and South South, or so it seems. Except for defections, the two zones have consistently voted for the PDP and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
But Buhari’s spokesperson, Rotimi Fashaskin, said: “You are far behind time. The lie that Jonathan told the South East and South South is no longer there.
“The average citizen in the South East and South South knows that Jonathan has done nothing meritorious to warrant re-election. The only thing that Nigerians know him for is humongous corruption.
“The General is so respected. If we put our acts together, Jonathan is beatable in Bayelsa. Look at how he has turned the Bayelsa Governor (Seriake Dickson), and other officials in the state to errand boys. Is that the kind of President Bayelsa wants?”
