Many governorship candidates of both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC), incumbents and greenhorns, are on shaky ground and would need to walk the extra mile to coast home in tight races North and South.
Kaduna
Governor Ramalan Yero is walking a tightrope and the odds against him may cost him the ballot in February 2015 unless he reverses some of his steps.
His party, the PDP, is losing grip on its traditional stronghold, Kaduna South, to APC candidate, Nasir el-Rufai.
Residents of Kaduna South complained that Yero abandoned projects in the area which their son, the late Governor Ibrahim Yakowa, initiated. Yakowa died in a helicopter crash on December 15, 2012, halfway into his first term. His Deputy, Yero, to succeeded him.
El-Rufai’s campaign may be bolstered by Muhammadu Buhari’s emergence as APC presidential candidate. Buhari commands huge followership in the state.
Borno
PDP governorship candidate, Gambo Lawan, faces a hurdle in his attempt to displace Governor Kashim Shettima.
A major campaign point against Lawan, a one-time chairman of Warri Refinery, is that he is detached from the reality of his people because he lives most of his life in London and Abuja.
Another factor that could strengthen the hand of Shettima is the plight of people displaced by Boko Haram. They have their camps in Maiduguri, which the state government runs.
Godiya Waniyet, a journalist, said the government’s responsiveness to the welfare of the displaced persons has endeared Shettima to them.
He cautioned that the failure of the PDP federal government to end the insurgency may also work against Lawan.
Imo
Governor Rochas Okorocha has a tough battle convincing the electorate to re-elect him on the platform of the APC.
He won his first term as a candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), a party the Igbo believe to be theirs, and faces the difficult task next year of convincing them to vote for him on the platform of a party they feel does not represent their interest.
A political analyst in Owerri, Onyekachi Obinna, said this could prove costly for Okorocha as even his APC chieftains, especially those from Owerri zone – which has not produced a governor – may vote against him.
“Okorocha is a grassroots politician. He is on the ground. But the sentiment of Owerri zone which wants to produce the next governor could work against him, in addition to the fact the Igbo are not too friendly with the APC.
“I see Emmanuel Iheanacho (of APGA) pulling a surprise, even though House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha (of the PDP), is also quite popular,” Obinna argued.
The chances of the PDP are being threatened by the actions of its defeated aspirant, Ifeanyi Araraume. Sources said he may prevent the party’s victory, using the courts.
A source said: “With a known history of causing the defeat of his party in Imo State governorship elections, Araraume had in 2007, from circumstances arising from the primaries, taken some decisions which eventually contributed to the defeat of the party to a PPA (Progressive Peoples Alliance) candidate, Ikedi Ohakim, who later defected to the PDP.
“In 2011, Araraume was back – this time as the candidate of the defunct ACN (Action Congress of Nigeria). His deliberate splitting of the votes of Ikedi Ohakim (then incumbent PDP governor) somewhat paved the way for Rochas Okorocha to emerge as the winner of the election, as the PDP lost the Imo governorship again.
“Now in 2014, after signing an undertaking to abide by the result of the primaries, Ifeanyi Araraume is literarily trying to pull down the heavens, in a bid to satisfy his personal ambition at the expense of the party and Imo state in general.”
Araraume through his counsel, Damien Dodo, has asked the courts to restrain the PDP from forwarding the name of Ihedioha to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as its Imo governorship candidate.
Justice Ahmed Mohammed, who declined to grant an ex-parte application, ordered that the defendants should rather show cause why the reliefs sought by Araraume should not be granted.
Akwa Ibom
Aspirants who contested for the PDP governorship ticket have threatened to ruin the chances of Emmanuel Udom who they alleged was imposed on them by Governor Godswill Akpabio, if the party does not redo the primaries.
A statement issued by Ibom True Leadership Forum (ITLF) said if the party fails to address the grievances of 22 governorship aspirants protesting alleged irregularities in the primaries the negative impact may affect Udom and also President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid.
“Such a harmless and civil request, which embodies the will of not only the aspirants but those of their teeming supporters and sympathisers, when swept under the carpet, would most likely result in a breach of the peace, but also obviously be costly for the PDP in the general election where our son, President Goodluck Jonathan is seeking re-election,” the group warned.
One of the PDP aspirants, Umanah Okon Umanah, defected to the APC along with his supporters and was given the party’s governorship ticket. This may upset the PDP.
Rivers
Former Education Minister, Nyesom Wike, emerged as PDP governorship candidate, despite protests from other aspirants who alleged that the process was skewed in Wike’s favour from the outset.
Wike is said to be a grassroots mobilisers who has the support of former militants. He also has strong ties in and outside the state. But his vote may be confined to the Ikwerre axis, his ethnic group, which is accused of marginalising the political affairs of the state.
Peterside Dakuku, APC governorship candidate, enjoys the support of his Kalabari minority tribe which feels marginalised since 1999 because it has not produced a governor.
He also has the sympathy of other minorities, especially the Ogoni, who have been waiting in the wings to land the top job.
Lagos
With the emergence of Jimi Agbaje as PDP governorship flag-bearer, the APC faces a difficult hurdle to stop him from displacing its candidate, Akin Ambode.
Agbaje, a renowned pharmacist, has political finesse and intellect, and is well organised, with loads of admirers among Lagosians; a reason he was drafted by the PDP to give the APC a run for its money.
Many Lagosians who feel aggrieved by some of the policies of the APC government said the time has come for a pay back, promising to vote out the party.
One of them, Sunshine Mfon, moaned about multiple taxation which makes it difficult for business operators like him to thrive.
Ambode’s credentials also look good on paper. He is a public finance expert, former accountant general, and retired civil servant who served the state for 27 years.
He held key positions across all cadres of the civil service, such as the auditor general for councils and permanent secretary. He has state resources in his favour, which he may deploy against Agbaje.
Oyo
APC candidate, Governor Abiola Ajimobi, is determined to rewrite the history of the state by winning re-election. No governor in Oyo’s history has achieved that feat.
But that may be a tough nut to crack with the emergence of Teslim Folarin of the PDP who cut his political teeth under the late Lamidi Adedibu, who bestrode the political landscape of the state like a colossus till his death on June 11, 2008.
Ogun
The ballot will be keenly contested. With the defection of Olusegun Osoba from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Governor Ibikunle Amosun faces a tough battle.
The APC has suffered massive bleeding as a result of Osoba’s defection. Many other political heavy weights, including state and federal lawmakers, have defected to the SDP.
Deputy Governor, Segun Adesegun, defected to the SDP and got the governorship ticket. He is believed to have the political pedigree to match Amosun.
But the PDP is hoping to capitalise on the split vote in the ranks of the ‘progressives’ to snatch victory from the APC, though it is still embroiled in intra party crisis over whether to accept Gboyega Isiaka as its candidate.
 and All Progressives Congress (APC), incumbents and greenhorns, are on shaky ground and would need to walk the extra mile to coast home in tight races North and South.){kind=link}