By Ishaya Ibrahim
The February 16 Nigeria’s presidential election will be a stiff contest.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Muhammadu Buhari looks good in the North West, South West and the North East.
His challenger, the People’s Democratic Party Atiku Abubakar is expected to sweep the North Central, South East and South-South.
The margin of win in each of these six geopolitical zones will be the decider on who gets the top job.
TheNiche Data Analysis Unit forecast a voter turnout of 60 per cent in the North West, and 50 per cent in the other regions.
North West
With an assumption of 60 per cent voter turnout, the North West is likely going to record 12 million votes. Its registered voters are 20 million.
North West is Buhari’s turf. He won it by 84 per cent in 2015.
In the 2011 election, his margin of victory was 59 per cent. His opponent, Goodluck Jonathan, got 39 per cent.
In 2019, Buhari is expected to clinch 65 per cent of the North West votes, Atiku 35 per cent.
This will mean 7.8 million votes for Buhari while Atiku gets 4.2 million.
Here’s the in-depth voting analysis of the North West
North East
The North East is another of Buhari’s stronghold, except that this time, his opponent, Atiku is from the area. Its voting population is 11.2 million.
In the 2011 election, Buhari took 62 per cent of the votes. His opponent, Jonathan, got 31 per cent.
In 2015, he swept the area by 78 per cent, Jonathan got 21 per cent.
In 2019, if Buhari enjoys 55 per cent lead, his votes will be about 3 million, leaving Atiku with 2.5 million votes.
Here’s the analysis of how the North East vote will go
North Central
The North Central is home to Nigeria’s third largest voting population with 13.4 million registered voters. It has six states, out of which only Niger has been consistent in voting Buhari.
Atiku is expected to win North Central by at least 64 per cent, that is 4.2 million votes. Buhari may get 36 per cent of the votes, that is, 2.4 million.
Here’s why it is so
South West
The South West has the second highest number of registered voters, 16.3 million. If the region records 50 per cent voter turnout, it will mean that 8 million people will cast their votes on February 16 presidential election.
An analysis of the voting history of the South West would reveal that it has never been rigid on its choice of presidential candidates.
Buhari may clinch 58 per cent of the South West votes, leaving Atiku with 42 per cent.
This will mean 4.6 million votes for Buhari while Atiku gets 3.3 million.
Here’s the full analysis of South West vote
South-South
The South-South is a PDP stronghold which Atiku is expected to win by a landslide. It has a voting size of 12.8 million. So, 6.4 million people are expected to vote based on the assumption of 50 per cent voter turnout.
Buhari has never won any of the South-South states since he started running for the office.
In the 2011 poll, his total votes in the region were 49,978, which represented 0.8 per cent. The remaining 99 per cent of the voters chose his rival, Goodluck Jonathan, whose votes were more than 6 million.
In the 2015 election, despite having two governors in the region – Rivers and Edo, Buhari’s votes were 9 per cent or roughly about 450,000. Jonathan swept the remaining 91 per cent, that is, 4.7 million votes.
In 2019, Buhari’s votes may hover in the region of 20 per cent. This will mean 1.2 million votes. Atiku is expected to clinch at least 75 per cent of the votes, that is 4.8 million.
Here’s the in-depth analysis of the South-South vote
South East
The South East will be a roller coaster ride for Atiku.
The region has 10 million registered voters. A 50 per cent voter turnout will mean 5 million people voting on February 16.
Buhari’s performances in the South East have always been poor. In the 2011 election, his 22,335 votes represented 0.4 per cent.
In the 2015 election, he got only 7 per cent of the region’s votes.
In 2019, the region is more embolden to vote the PDP especially as one of their own, Peter Obi, is Atiku’s running mate. The region also feels sideline in federal appointments.
Buhari’s South East votes may fall within the region of 10 per cent, not exceeding 500,000 votes. Atiku is expected to clinch 90 per cent of the votes, which represents 4.5 million.
Here’s the in-depth analysis of the South East voting pattern
Who wins the vote.
Based on the data analysed, Buhari’s votes in the 2019 election will come down to 19.5 million.
Atiku is expected to get 23.5 million votes.
Journalist and Public Affairs analyst, Ogubundu Nwadike said the situation in the country favours the PDP’s candidate, Atiku.
“The APC administration did not satisfy the expectations of the people. They said change. And everybody was expecting that change. Suddenly, rice that used to sell for N8,000 became N20,000. That is why people are scared of the next level.
“Except a miracle happens, Buhari will be defeated,” he said.
