By Emeka Alex Duru
Less than 24 hours to the inauguration of the Ninth National Assembly (NASS), contenders for the leadership of the two chambers – the Senate and House of Representatives, are still on full throttle for the positions.
In the Senate, following the withdrawal of former Gombe State governor, Danjuma Goje, from the race last week, it has become a two-horse affair between Ahmed Lawan (Yobe North) and Alli Ndume (Borno South).
In the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila (APC Lagos) and Mohammed Umaru Bago, who represents Chanchaga federal constituency of Niger State, are the main contenders. Emeka Nwajiuba (APC Imo), is also counted among aspirants for the post.
The contenders, the strategies
Till the dying hours on Sunday, June 9, none of the candidates was leaving anything to chance in going about the exercise. Aside nationwide tour to governors for support from lawmakers in their respective states, they equally engaged in one-on-one meetings with their colleagues, in some instances, offering promises of chairmanship of strategic committees, among others to woo them to their sides. In tow with the engagements, the candidates are also employing mind game to intimidate their fellow contenders. While Lawan counts on the number of endorsements he has garnered so far for the office, Ndume, says he has the real votes.
Lawan and Gbajabiamila, are for instance, brandishing their endorsement for the positions from their All Progressive Congress (APC) in going about their campaign. By Sunday, the Gbajiamila group had maintained a claim that 183 out of the 360 members of the lower House had registered their support for him.
Ndume, on his own, insists that he has the support of President Muhammadu Buhari and assurances of most of his colleagues. Bago, who has vowed not to step down for anyone in the speakership race, is running on the wing of equity, claiming that APC made mistake zoning speakership to southwest.
PDP to play the joker?
Not much has been heard from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on who to give the bloc votes among the candidates. There is however the impression that the voting pattern of the members of the party, will ultimately determine who gets the coveted crown in the two chambers. Currently, there are 107 senators-elect with two being expected from Imo State. The APC has 62 senators-elect, PDP 44 and YPP, one. The PDP therefore holds the ace in determining who emerges the Senate President, if they are to vote as a bloc.
Going by media reports and his carriage so far, Lawan seems favoured for the post. For one, he is the preferred candidate of his APC. Given what happened in 2015 when he was presented for the office by the party but was upstaged by the immediate past Senate President, Bukola Saraki, it can be assumed that both the senator and the APC must have done their homework very well, this time around. Again, in his last outing as the Senate Majority Leader, Lawan had discharged his brief creditably. He is equally seen as a good team player among his colleagues. There are thus, indications that the office is for him, this time around. The snag in his aspiration however, is the perception that he is too close to the APC leadership that he can easily compromise the independence of the legislature in holding the office. He is also seen as a protégé of the former Lagos State governor and APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu and may thus, be beholden to him on key issues in the senate, many insinuate. Nearer to this fear, is the suspicion that the APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, may not allow him the space to operate independently in going about his job. At the presentation of Lawan and Gbajabiamila as the APC candidates, Oshiomhole, had in what many had seen as a nauseating tone, literally commanded the duo to ensure that the opposition does not get the chairmanship of any meaningful committee in any of the chambers. Our correspondent learnt that the lawmakers in both chambers are not taking the directive likely. Lawn may need to convince his colleagues in the senate that in steering the affairs of the chamber, he will not be running to the APC chairman for instructions.
Ndume not giving up
Even then, Lawan still has Ndume to contend with. Ndume, by his antecedents, is not one to go down without a push when he has his eyes on any agenda. He is on record as one of, if not the first politician to take on and triumph over the then governor and godfather of Borno politics, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff. Ndume was then in the House of Representatives but had eyes on the Senate, not only to be a senator for Borno South but for the position of the Minority Leader, which Sheriff also had interest in. On account of the clash of interest, Ndume, who was born a Christian but later converted to Islam, was denied ticket for the office by the then All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Peeved at the development, he crossed over to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and won the election for the upper law making house. Sheriff, however, lost, even as a governor. In the build-up to the 2015 politics, he was wooed to the APC by Governor Kashim Shettima.
In the Eighth NASS, he was among the senators that teamed up with Saraki to go against the APC rules in the emergence of the senate leadership. For his efforts, he was made the Senate Leader. Along the line however, he fell out with his erstwhile camp and would not mind that costing him his position.
When therefore, he indicated his intention for the senate presidency this time around and attempts were made to hush him down, many see him going all out to actualise it, even if it would earn him sanctions from the APC. He has actually, not dropped his rebellious traits. The challenge he face however, may come from PDP senators, most of whom are said to be still bearing grudges with him over how he later turned against the Saraki leadership.
In the House, Gbajabiamila’s undisguised closeness to Tinubu, may be his greatest undoing, if not properly managed. In terms of media posturing and perception, he seems clearly in the lead. At his meeting with his colleagues last Sunday in the final round of his campaign, he appeared to be on victory lap even before the race. Everything, by Monday, seemed working in his favour. But the Bago challenge remained potent, undoubtedly. A bloc vote from Northern colleagues and others who see his South West seeking too much, having got the Vice President, may work against him. In similar stead, sympathy votes as a way of carrying along the South East geo-political which seems lost in the APC power distribution, may also throw him out of contention.
