By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
World tourism destinations – from Kenya and Morocco to Japan and Spain, and the United States to Ecuador and Brazil – may lose $1.4 trillion in 2021 alone as the Delta variant of coronavirus ravages countries and hampers travel.
However, a lack of equal access to pandemic vaccine will make poor tourism destinations in Africa, South Asia, the Far East and South America bear the greater loss of revenue.
Uneven rollout of vaccines devastates developing countries that are highly dependent on overseas visitors.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) says in its latest report that even with more of the world’s population vaccinated, the economic impact of the pandemic on tourism is turning out to be more severe than its worst-case predictions 12 months ago.
The study, quoted by CNN, highlights how costly vaccine inequality will be for the world economy, with tourism losses this year alone amounting to between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion.
This is despite an expected rebound in travel in countries such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the US.
2019 tourism levels won’t return until 2024
Developing economies could account for up to 60 per cent of the global GDP losses, or as much as $1.4 trillion this year, according to the report, which was produced together with the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
The slump in tourism could cost the world economy as much as $4.8 trillion for 2020 and 2021, dealing a $2.9 trillion blow to poorer countries.
The analysis takes into account losses to industries that supply food, beverages, accommodation and transport to the tourism sector, but does not reflect economic stimulus packages that may soften the impact of the pandemic.
“Developing countries have borne the biggest brunt of the pandemic’s impact on tourism,” UNCTAD said in a statement. “They suffered the largest reductions in tourist arrivals in 2020, estimated at between 60 per cent and 80 per cent.”
Despite the easing of lockdowns and a pick-up in travel in some parts of the world, the tourism crisis is far from over. Half of experts interviewed by the UNWTO see international tourism returning to 2019 levels only in 2024 or later.
Just 10 per cent of the world’s population is fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data.
Even in countries with high vaccination rates, such as the United Kingdom, travel restrictions remain in place amid concerns about a spike in cases driven by the highly transmissible Delta variant.
For countries with far fewer people vaccinated – overwhelmingly poorer countries – the outlook is a lot worse.
UNCTAD predicts a 75 per cent reduction in tourist arrivals in countries with low vaccination rates this year, compared with a 37 per cent reduction in countries with more than 50 per cent of their population vaccinated.
Countries such as Turkey, Ecuador and South Africa and islands including Maldives and Saint Lucia will bear the brunt of the impact.
Large parts of Asia and Oceania are also badly affected, while North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean are least affected, according to the report.
Rise in unemployment for unskilled labor
Overall, the crash in tourism is expected to cause a 5.5 per cent increase in unemployment for unskilled labor on average.
The UNWTO estimates that between 100 million and 120 million direct tourism jobs are at stake, many of them belonging to young people, women and informal workers.
“Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries,” UNWTO Secretary General Zurab Pololikashvili said in a statement.
The main obstacle in the way of a recovery in tourism is the uneven availability of vaccines and the low number of vaccinated people in many countries, according to the report, per CNN.
Travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, traveler confidence and a poor economic environment are also barriers.
To get people traveling again, the report said countries should better coordinate travel requirements and facilitate travel by, for example, agreeing common standards for cheap and reliable coronavirus testing.