Special Correspondent, JOE EZUMA, examines the dominant issues ahead 2015 general elections in Rivers State.
There are indications that politics in Rivers State may assume interesting dimensions in the run-up to 2015 general elections. Analysts, for instance, predict paradigm change, adding that the field promises to be tough, exciting and even murky – in the months leading to the exercise.
Rivers state governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
The issue that will make the engagement more exciting and interesting is not only that for the first time, the state’s politics is witnessing a strong and virile opposition. It is also not for the fact that the governor, Rotimi Amaechi, dumped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform that brought him to power, and crossed to erstwhile opposition party in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The clincher, it has been observed, is that at least those jostling to rule the state in 2015 will surely have many issues to debate about in development politics. This is, given the strides the governor had made in governance and infrastructure development in the state. There will also be opportunity to assess the administration’s projects and their impact on the people.
Even with these considerations, the battle for Brick House promises to be crunchy. For one, the riverine-upland dichotomy politics that had been subdued since 1999 when Dr. Peter Odili became the first governor from the upland area of the state, since it was created in 1967 by Yakubu Gowon, has been renewed. Closely related to this is the fact that the Ijaw (Riverine) of Okrika Kalabari with their ethnic allies, such as the Igbani (Bonny), Andoni, Opobo and Nkoro, which had lost grip of the power since the administrations of Melford Okilo and Rufus Ada-George, are seriously insisting that power must return to them.
Weathering the Ogoni challenge
There is also the Ogoni question. The Ogoni, in the light of the emerging developments, is no longer seeing itself as part of the upland Rivers, but an ethnic cluster that had not tasted political power since the state was created; hence its insistence at having a shot at the exalted office now. The Ogoni cluster comprises Ogoniland, its Eleme neighbours, Oyigbo and Ndoki of Rivers, the Andoni-Opobo Nkoro riverine axis.
It is its allegation of marginalisation in the power equation of the state that gave rise to its current agitation of Ogoni or Bori State. The agitation, incidentally, has gradually but consistently been gaining momentum and sympathy across and beyond the state.
The Ikwerre Democratic Initiative and Alliance (IDIA), and Obolo Consultative Forum (OCF), for instance, on Friday, May 16, 2014, joined in endorsing the clamour by the Ogoni ethnic nationality to produce the governor come 2015. Coordinator of IDIA, Eze Emenike, and leader of OCF, Ala Nte, made the declaration in their separate speeches at Bori, during the inauguration of the Khana Local Government chapter of Ogoni Democratic Movement (ODM). Emenike described the Ogoni governorship project as “an idea whose time has come”, and called on the people to believe in their ability to produce a successor to Amaechi in 2015.
On his part, Nte said the people of Obolo (Andoni) ethnic nationality were solidly behind the Ogoni governorship project, pointing out that their support was in appreciation of similar gesture extended to them by the Ogoni that led to the emergence of their son as chairman of one of the political parties in the state.
Earlier in his address, President-General of ODM, Godwin Bazari, remarked that the people of Ogoni had suffered enough, and called on political parties in the state to pick their gubernatorial candidates for the forthcoming governorship election from the area.
Jonathan, Wike tendencies on parade
Other issues that are expected to play dominant roles in the coming months in the state include the President Goodluck Jonathan tendency, the Nyesom Wike factor, ego politics that may see Amaechi not only ensuring that his choice of successor remains sacrosanct, but also will emerge as governor – an indication that for APC, winning Rivers in 2015 is a compelling task.
Incidentally, Amaechi had, in one of his outings last year, said he would not anoint a successor, stressing that the experiences of some ex-governors with their anointed successors in the present regime had not been encouraging. That was when he was in PDP, anyway.
But developments in the last nine months in the country that had pushed him to the APC must have made him change his stance on the issue, not only for ensuring the APC victory in the state, but also in anointing the next governor.
There is also the interest and pull of ex-Niger Delta militants who, although are united that President Jonathan must complete eight years as president, have their different ideas about Rivers politics.
Ijaw/riverine on rampage
The first military administrator of Rivers, Alfred Diete-Spiff, is Ijaw. Similarly, the first two civilian governors of the state after him, Okilo and Ada-George, were Ijaw. In the Second Republic, while the upland area was agitating for Port Harcourt State, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN)-led administration of Okilo and the riverine rejected and suppressed the move. However, when Bayelsa was created on October 1, 1996 by the late General Sani Abacha administration, a large chunk of the riverine area went to the new state, leaving the Kalabari, Okrika Bonny (Igbani) and their cluster as struggling minority in Rivers. That, somehow, meant the end of Ijaw ascendancy, albeit temporarily, in the state politics.
Observers of Rivers politics believe that for power to go to the riverine area in the nearest future, there must be political or democratic morality. Needless to say that with the creation of Bayelsa, the Ikwerre, who formed the main agitators for the unrealised Port Harcourt State project, became the new dominant political power bloc by sheer demography. Currently, in the state, the Ikwerre, who are spread in four local governments of Emohua, Ikwerre, Obio/Akpor and Port Harcourt, with considerable sympathy with the Etche that have two local governments, are the new hegemons.
With the division of the state into three senatorial zones –Rivers West, Rivers East and Rivers South-East – the old riverine/upland power relation, under which the riverine had held sway, crumbled as part of the Ijaw area was carved into Rivers West and Rivers East – two zones which are predominantly Igbo-speaking and which Mujahid Asari-Dokubo, while arguing why power should change hands, categorised as Ikwerre Igbo cluster.
With the newly-gained ascendancy, which Odili helped to facilitate, the Ikwerre, for the first time since the creation of the state, produced two governors in quick succession – Celestine Omehia and his cousin, Amaechi.
This, perhaps, forms the plank on which the argument against the governorship aspiration of Minister of State for Education, Nyesom Wike, by the riverine people and other moderate Ikwerre rests.
It is on this political or democratic morality concept and, of course, competence that one of the PDP governorship aspirants from Kalabari Kingdom, Nimi Walson-Jack, strongly kicks against the upland governorship aspiration. Walson-Jack also believes that the people are entitled to government that is based on experience, competence and qualification, but insists that there should be moral content in a democratic setting.
Enter the GDI
The Grassroots Democratic Initiative (GDI) is a political pressure group set up in the first place as a platform for furthering President Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 interest, as well as checkmate his opponents in the state, especially Amaechi and his associates. It was, therefore, seen to have waged a proxy war for Abuja and attracted leading politicians who, for one reason or another, had fallen out with Amaechi and his administration. Wike was more comfortable and more strategically positioned to carry out that function.
It was in the bid to counter the activities of the GDI that the Amaechi tendency formed the Save Rivers Movement (SRM)
With the Abuja angle of the impasse appearing to be dying down, especially following some Amaechi allies refusing to defect to APC with him, Wike began to translate GDI anti-Amaechi war into his own political agenda, especially to oil his political ambition for governorship in 2015.
Thus, the pro-Wike 2015 campaigners became visible across the ethnic groups in the state. This however led to further disenchantment in the pro -Abuja GDI camp, as many sensibilities were offended.
The fissures created in the structure of GDI, which agenda had become suspect among many, led to the formation of sub-bodies with ethnic leanings but claiming to be for Jonathan and against Amaechi. Such bodies include the Rivers Mainstream Coalition, the Etche Peoples Congress, the Ogoni Political Movement, the Eastern Delta Congress as well as the Kalabari Unity Forum and the Ekpeye Political Movement. The sign of crack in the PDP arising from the issues of riverine-upland dichotomy and Wike’s ambition blew open on April 19, 2014 at Omoku, during the first anniversary celebration of the Felix Obuah-led PDP state executive committee.
Curiously, PDP big wigs and governorship aspirants were absent from the occasion, considered a major outing for the party. Among those that failed to turn up were Tonye Princewill, Walson-Jack, Abiye Sekibo, Dammy Danagogo (Minister of Sports), and Uche Secondus (National Deputy Chairman of PDP, South South). Also absent were Senator Lee Meaba, Senator George Sekibo and Odili. Although the absence of Secondus was explained to be unavoidable, many linked it to anti-Wike and return to riverine-upland arrangement.
But in what looked like tacit endorsement of Wike, Obuah said the feat of reconciliation, reconstruction and solidification of the party in the state was possible through the inspiration of Wike.
Elder statesman, Sergeant Awuse, said that under Obuah’s leadership, founding members of the PDP, who left the party for other political parties, had come back to the fold. He called on Wike to throw his hat in the ring for the 2015 governorship race in the state on the platform of PDP.
According to Awuse, the call became necessary following the minister’s unparalleled contribution to the growth of the party in the state.
As endorsements continue to pour on the way of Wike, so does repudiation continue to trail his speculated governorship ambition, The umbrella body of the Ijaw in Rivers, Pan Rivers Alliance, was the latest to reject the endorsement of the minister. The body made the position of its people known in an advertorial signed by prominent leaders in the area. It alleged that Wike was trying to subvert Ijaw interest, accusing him of attempting to recruit sons of Ijaw such as Danagogo, Rudderford Long-John, Pleasant Braide, Okpakrite Jackreece, Ibe Eresia-Eke, Austin Okpokiri, Precious Elekima and Hope Ikiriko to procure the endorsement for him through monetary and contract inducements.
“The Pan Rivers Alliance (Rivers West Senatorial District) notes that never in the political history of Nigeria, since the failed bid by General Sani Abacha to transmute from a military to a civilian head of state, has the political ambition of any Nigerian been inundated with so much orchestrated endorsements like that of Nyesom Wike,” the group lamented.
The statement, signed by Sam Otonye, stated that the popular desire of Rivers people is to ensure the emergence of the next governor from either Kalabari, Ogoni, Andoni, Ibani (Opobo/Bonny), Eleme, Ndoki, Ekpeye, Ogba, Engeni, Abua, Odual, Etche/Omuma or Okrika.
It further observed that the PDP in Rivers has since been thrown into disarray when a gale of endorsements for Wike was ostensibly activated by him through his associates.
Earlier, on April 9, 2014, the Ijaw, who are trying to re-enact its foothold in Rivers politics and acting under the aegis of Eastern Delta Peoples Association (EDPA), had canvassed for riverine governor in 2015.
EDPA steering committee chairman, Lawrence Jumbo, who unfolded the agenda in a release by the Media Bureau, stressed that it will only be an entrenchment of justice, equity and fairness for the riverine governor to emerge in 2015, “when viewed against the fact that, since 1999, Rivers has been governed by two upland sons: Odili (1999-1997) and Amaechi (2007 to 2015)”.
With the various tendencies and unfolding alliances, there have been accusations and counter-accusations, even before the battle time. The APC has accused the PDP of recruiting former militants for the 2015 poll in the state, while the PDP has accused Amaechi of freeing many ex-militants who had been in prison for the purpose of using them for the same exercise. With the ex-militants united in Jonathan’s presidency but divided on who or which ethnic group should produce governor in 2015, observers are asking whether it is going to be a battle of the ex-militants in 2015.
In fact, the unusual influx of youths from the North, Niger and Chad into Rivers, especially Port Harcourt, has been linked to moves to boost electoral fortunes in 2015.