By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Africa has the least infection and death rates of coronavirus, but the continent must not be complacent, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned, citing poor health facilities and overcrowded communities among facilitators of the virus.
Warm climate and a large youth population have slowed down the spread of the virus in Africa, a claim partly confirmed by a new study in China, the country hit the hardest with about 90,000 cases and over 3,000 deaths and still counting.
A team of researchers unveiled the results of a new study that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the transmission of COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus.
“High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19,” the researchers found.
They found through analysed data that an increase of just one degree Celsius and 1 per cent relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’s transmission.
Africa to prepare for the worst
But WHO Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said Africa must “wake up” to the coronavirus threat and prepare for the worst by learning from how the spread of virus has sped up in other parts of the world, shutting down economies.
He warned that while Africa’s confirmed cases were currently low – around 640 – there was no reason for complacency.
“Africa should wake up, my continent should wake up,” said Tedros, an Ethiopian, the first African head of the WHO.
Health experts warn that strained public health systems in Africa could become quickly overwhelmed if the virus takes hold, especially in overcrowded urban areas.
“WHO’s recommendation is actually mass gatherings should be avoided and we should do all we can to cut it from the bud, expecting that the worst could happen,” Tedros told a news conference in Geneva, where the WHO is based.
The BBC reports that in Africa, 16 people have died from Covid-19, the respiratory illness caused by coronavirus: six in Egypt, six in Algeria, two in Morocco, one in Sudan and one in Burkina Faso.
In South Africa, which has 116 cases, President Cyril Ramaphosa has declared a state of disaster, restricting travel, closing schools, banning mass gatherings and ordering bars to close or limit numbers to 50.
The country has also banned all cruise ships from its ports. This comes despite tests coming back negative for six people on board a cruise ship, which had been put under quarantine.
All 1,700 people are now free to leave the ship and return home.
Anyone breaking South Africa’s coronavirus measures will be subject to a fine, or even imprisonment.
Restrictions across Africa
- Lagos state, the economic hub of Nigeria, has banned gatherings of more than 50 people and schools will close from next week.
- Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, which has eight coronavirus cases, is also stopping flights from any country where there are more than 1,000 infections from Saturday.
- Algeria, one of the worst-affected countries in Africa, has closed its borders and stopped flights.
- The president has also banned mass gatherings, which would affect the weekly big anti-government demonstrations.
- Rwanda, which has 11 patients with Covid-19, is banning passenger flights after Friday for 30 days.
- Kenya, a deeply religious country like most on the continent, has suspended worship in some churches and mosques.
- The government also says it will manufacture its own hand sanitiser and distribute it for free, in a bid to tackle shortages.
- Liberia, which dealt with a deadly Ebola outbreak several years ago and has two recorded cases of Covid-19, has stopped issuing passports to stop people travelling. Earlier this week, it banned entry to those from countries worst affected by the pandemic.
- The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius has banned entry to tourists for two weeks – and confirmed its first three cases: two cruise ships workers and a British tourist.
- Zambia, with two Covid-19 cases, has suspended parliament and schools and university will close after Friday.
- Somalia, with one case, closed its air space overnight.
- Uganda and Botswana, which have no cases so far, will close schools from next week.
- Chad, with no cases, is suspending all passenger flights and closing some land borders from midnight on Thursday.
Lagos shut schools, restricts gatherings to 50
The authorities in Lagos have announced a ban on public gatherings of more than 50 people in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus.
“We are limiting gatherings and events to no more than 50 people and appropriate social distancing must be observed,” Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu said on Twitter.
The state government said schools would also be shut from Monday.
Lagos is Africa’s biggest city, with a population of about 20 million.
Many of its residents are deeply religious with tens of thousands of worshippers packing mosques on Fridays and mega churches on Sundays.
Nigeria, Africa’s most-populous state, has reported eight cases of coronavirus – the first was that of an Italian who flew into Lagos.
Effect of weather on coronavirus spread
The study in China is the latest in a limited but growing body of research, not all of which has been peer-reviewed, that examines the effect of weather on the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, which causes the COVID-19 illness.
The researchers studied 100 different Chinese cities that each had more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from January 21 to 23.
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist, said the decision to study transmission on those dates was critical because that time period was before China intervened on January 24 to stop the spread of the virus.
Analysing that timeframe allowed researchers to observe the natural spread of the virus before public health measures – which have since helped reduce the spread drastically in China – were implemented.
According to Ferrell, that step was one of several sound methods taken by authors Jingyuan Wang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv of Beihang University; and Ke Tang from Tsinghua University.
He also commended the authors’ accounting for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, which normalised the differences in health care facilities, and the normalisations for population density.
The paper showed that the direct impacts of air temperatures and humidity levels could be seen plainly in the severity of outbreaks during the earlier stages of the virus spread.