Casting of ballot on Election Day is only but one of the events in the electoral value chain.
President Muhammadu Buhari has stated for the umpteenth time that he desires to bequeath the country a legacy of credible elections. That seems to be the only low hanging fruit waiting for him to pluck as his disastrous presidency comes to an insalubrious end on May 29. He has made the promise not only to Nigerians but also the international community.
While commissioning a wide range of operational assets acquired by his administration to strategically improve the capabilities of the police, particularly in crowd control and anti-riot operations, on February 13, the president harped on the need for them to be professional while policing the elections.
On October 1, 2022, Buhari, who claimed to be a “victim of unfair electoral processes” in the past, said: “Having witnessed at close quarters, the pains, anguish and disappointment of being a victim of an unfair electoral process, the pursuit of an electoral system and processes that guarantee election of leaders by citizens remains the guiding light as I prepare to wind down our administration. It is for this reason that I have resolved to bequeath a sustainable democratic culture which will remain lasting.”
To be fair, he has taken steps that lend credence to his avowals. He could be said to be desirous of walking his talk this time.
But truth be told, the 2023 elections are being systematically rigged even before the first ballot is cast on February 25.
How do I mean?
Election is a process, which comprises numerous events and involves multiple institutions and actors. These pre-election, Election Day and post-election events affect the transparency, inclusiveness, accountability and competitiveness of the exercise. Casting of ballot on Election Day is only but one of the events in the electoral value chain.
Therefore, even if everything goes well on Election Day, if the processes leading up to the casting of ballots are compromised, the election has been rigged ab-initio.
The Electoral Act 2022 is explicit on what constitutes infraction. Any infringement that is not addressed in line with the dictates of the law casts shadow of doubt on the integrity of the process. Sadly, the Act has been serially breached even by institutions like the judiciary that ought to serve as the bulwark of protection.
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Governors are doing the unimaginable to stop candidates of opposition political parties from campaigning in their states by decreeing draconian executive orders. While they are having a free reign with their anointed candidates, others are denied public spaces for their rallies. Here, Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, is the worst villain.
In Rivers, none of the opposition political parties has been allowed to conduct a hitch-free rally anywhere in the state. Yet, the PDP governorship candidate has been moving about with Wike campaigning in all the nooks and crannies of the state. If PDP “wins” the election when the other political parties were not given a level-playing field, that would be victory procured unfairly and fraudulently.
The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, was forced to cancel his scheduled rally in Port Harcourt because of violence.
Across the country, but particularly in Lagos, many potential voters have been disenfranchised because the powers-that-be, with the connivance of compromised staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), frustrated their efforts to collect their voter cards.
Sadly, while bona fide Nigerians are being denied the right to vote, foreigners have the PVCs, ready to do the needful on Election Day at the expense of the country.
Penultimate week, the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) said it had seized 6,216 permanent voter and national identity cards from migrants in 21 border states nationwide. The NIS Acting Comptroller-General, Isa Idris, who disclosed this in Abuja said the 2,393 voter cards and 3,823 National Identity cards were seized from non-citizens.
But that number is only a tip of the axiomatic iceberg. Non-citizens with PVCs ready to vote by far outnumber those arrested. And they will sure surely vote on February 25 and March 11.
Politically motivated violence in Lagos State has become a routine. Recently, the Baale of Gbara in Jakande, Eti-Osa Local Government Area threatened to deal with some residents if they failed to vote the ruling APC, which he described as his party.
He was heard telling the residents in a leaked video that they must vote APC if they are desirous of living and doing businesses in the community.
“The people that will be friends with us are those with PVC, the people that will be doing business and making profit here will only be the people that have their PVCs and are willing to vote for our party, APC, nothing short of that,” he said during a cabinet meeting held on January 30, 2023. As shocked as people may claim to be over this ugly development, the truth is that the threat is not limited to the Gbara community. It is pervasive.
In 2015, the Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu, threatened Ndigbo in Lagos with death if they voted for the then PDP candidate, Jimi Agbaje. Oba Akiolu insisted that Ndigbo resident in the state should cast their votes for the APC gubernatorial candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode, or “perish inside the lagoon.”
Last Saturday, the same monarch declined the request of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, to pay him a courtesy visit while on a rally in his domain.
Instead, thugs were unleashed on Labour Party supporters on a scale that beggars belief. Limbs were broken and properties worth millions of Naira destroyed in a desperate bid to stop LP supporters from reaching the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), venue of the mega rally.
There was no condemnation from the leadership of the APC both at the state and national levels. The APC Presidential Campaign Council never bothered. Yet, the presidential candidate of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has campaigned in all the Southeast states, with huge turnout of party faithful, without anyone molesting his supporters.
The security agencies have done nothing to tackle these unconscionable breaches of the Electoral Act. In the few instances that the police claim to have made arrests, no one was charged to court and prosecuted in accordance with the laws of the land. The culprits are patted on the back and allowed to go home to do an encore.
While the police are busy acquiring operational assets for the Election Day events, the polls are being rigged systematically long before the first ballot is cast.
The idea of the unbridled violence and intimidation is to scare some people away from the ballot. It is a deliberate act of voter suppression. It is election rigging at its worst. People’s businesses are deliberately being ruined because of their perceived allegiance to opposing political interests. And the Nigerian state is acting as if it is helpless.
The state actors that are mobilizing critical security assets for the Election Day may find out that it will be useless because the people have been frightened into submission and may decide to stay away rather than die for a country that is not worth the supreme sacrifice.
The questions are: why is it difficult for the average Nigerian politician to play by the rules of the game? Why is there so much violence despite the peace accord that was signed with fanfare? Why is it difficult for INEC to checkmate its unscrupulous staff who were busy registering under-aged voters and foreigners rather than Nigerians? Why was it difficult to give all registered voters their PVCs when non-citizens have same cards? Can we afford to continue with this episodic national dislocation every four years rather than the much needed catharsis?
Every four years, the country wastes billions of scarce resources to conduct a charade in the name of democracy. Even if there are no incidents on the election day, which is impossible, with this level of pre-election infractions, can the polls be deemed free, fair and credible, the only wish of President Muhammadu Buhari, no matter the outcome?
The reason for this state of anomie is the fact that there are no democrats here. Anyone who claims otherwise is living a lie. Those we eulogise as democrats and progressives are no more than pseudo-democrats with autocratic reflexes, people to whom progressivism is only but a convenient cliché.
If President Muhammadu Buhari wants to pluck this low hanging fruit of credible elections, he must pay attention to what is happening now rather than wait for the D-day. In this pre-election season, the polls are being rigged technically and the culprits must be stopped in their tracks.
Nigerians must also take ownership of this pre-election season by being resolute. That is the only way to guarantee the success of the event that will take place on Election Day.