By Emeka Alex Duru
(08054103327)
Alerts by those that should know, indicate uncertain social and economic conditions in many parts of the World, by the time the wind of the ravaging Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic would have blown over. As part of the unfolding ugly picture, no precise calendar has been made on when the disease will ease out. The auguries, as they say, are really not encouraging. Of course, in a situation where even the most sophisticated nations around are being flattened by the impacts of the pandemic, there is the impression of the End Time, going by arguments in some quarters. But that is the extent religionists would interpret the current situation. Not so, however, for statesmen and realists. For them, Covid-19, is merely a phase, that will ultimately pass, with time and right actions.
This approximates what Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, describe as ‘critical juncture’, in their great book, “Why Nations Fall: The Origin of Power, Prosperity and Poverty”. Critical juncture, in their explanation, is a major event of confluence of factors, disrupting the existing economic or political balance in the society. It is a double-edged sword that can cause a sharp turn in the trajectory of a nation.
They list the Bubonic Plague or Black Death of 1346, as a major critical juncture that shaped the 14th century Europe. The plague which was transmitted by fleas living on rats, originated from China, as the Covid-19. While it raged, Black Death wiped out half of the population of areas it afflicted, hitting France, North Africa and Italy, the most. By the time, it ebbed, many cities and settlements had gone down. Some that had remained, learnt huge lessons from the pandemic and put up measures that not only guarded against recurrence but positioned them for future leadership of the world. England stood out in this. America that emerged later, built on this experience and has lived with it. This is the direction the Coronavirus is pointing at, with its destructive consequences.
The major concern, here, is on what Africa, in our case, Nigeria, will learn from the pandemic and how it can weather its storms. Two releases from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Union (AU) on April 7, bring the situation closer on what faces the country ahead. In what seems a timely warning, the IMF Managing Director Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, observed that; “Nigeria’s economy is being threatened by the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated sharp fall in international oil prices”. This is stating the obvious. The more frightening note came from the AU. In a startling revelation, report of a study by, the Organisation warned that the continent’s biggest oil producers, Nigeria and Angola, alone could lose $65 billion in income this year due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It noted that African oil exporters are expected to see their budget deficits double this year while their economies shrink three per cent on average.
To draw home the point, it stated that about 20 million jobs are also at risk in Africa as the continent’s economies are projected to shrink this year due to the impact of the pandemic. Though the study was on Africa, the impacts of the prediction are likely to be felt more in Nigeria, given the size of her population and strategic standing in the continent. How the Nigerian authorities intend to grapple with the looming challenge, is not clear, yet.
Elsewhere, this is the time to unleash the strategic potentials of the state in tackling the issue at hand. On situations as this, what makes the difference is the quality of political leadership. This is one of the defining moments that genuine leaders stand out and the pretenders remain where they are.
It was at a time as this that the 32nd President of the USA, Fredrick Delano Roosevelt, defined his role and place in history. Coming to power in 1933 at a time of severe depression, Roosevelt rose above the debilitating circumstances of the era, put men and materials together in response to the worst economic crisis in U.S. history
During the first 100 days of his presidency, Roosevelt spearheaded unprecedented federal legislation and issued a profusion of executive orders that instituted the New Deal—a variety of programmes designed to produce relief, recovery, and reform. He created numerous programmes to provide relief to the unemployed and farmers while seeking economic recovery and other programmes. He also instituted major regulatory reforms related to finance, communications, and labour.
On account of his sterling performance, he is rated as one of the three greatest U.S. presidents, along with George Washington and Abraham Lincoln. Lately, Barack Obama, the 44th president of the country, who inherited an economically disoriented system and turned around its fortune between 2009 and 2017 while he was in the saddle, came into the mix.
Nigeria has not been blessed with leaders of such class. But we have had situations that would have served as critical junctures or watersheds in our march to nationhood that had not been properly utilised. The 1960 independence was one of such moments when an appropriate blueprint on the future of the country should have been designed. Next was the end of the Civil War in 1970, when a new Nigeria, anchored on fairness, justice and equity could have been created.
The Covid-19 experience, hard as it is, presents another opportunity for the country to put its house in order and define a clear future for younger generations. Doing this, however, would entail a radical departure from our sloppy approach to issues. It will require what the great Economist, Joseph Schumpeter described as creative destruction. This demands replacing our old habits with new ways of doing things. It particularly calls for diversification from the lethargic dependence on oil as a major resource base for the country. It is now, time to look inwards for other means of keeping the country going. The vulnerability of oil prices to developments in the international market, has clearly shown that it is no longer a commodity to rely on for sustaining the country. Oil is also not a Sellers’ Market. It is a Buyers’ Market. Even with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC), as a cartel for major oil producers, the prices of oil are largely determined by many variables and not essentially at the dictates of the association. It is also a depletable resource that will certainly run out one day. There is therefore need to begin to make hay while the sun shines.
Unfortunately, the leadership we have at the centre and states, does not exhibit the carriage and character for this huge task. That is the major problem at hand.
Apart from the tendency of the all Progressives Congress (APC) – led Federal Government, wallowing in the pornography of propaganda on its phantom achievements, as celebrated Punch Newspaper Columnist, Abimbola Adelakun would say, there is very little on ground to suggest the readiness of the country on the impending economic crisis that stares at the World after Covid-19. What further rankles is that, obviously consumed in its narrow World view, the government treats any suggestion outside its narcissist engagement, as an affront. Such view, is instantly flagged down or casually dismissed as corruption fighting back, by rented cheer men and official attack dogs of the administration. In such instances, genuine observations are stultified, while the nation continues to trail in what legendary musician, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, would describe as ‘motion without movement’.